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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 62)

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    The Northman
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    #1204739726

    Not necessarily. I mean Isabelle Huppert won all trifectas I think and the London circle and she still lost the BAFTA to Emma Stone. Same with Rampling before her. And those are just in the last 6 years.

    She wasn’t even nominated for BAFTAs. As i posted here last decade the LFCC winner, if BAFTAs nominated always went to win. This is the 100% overlap if nominated last decade.

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    Aaron Kalloo
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    #1204739729

    London Film Critics Circle (LFCC) still is the best predictor/indicator of who might win BAFTA…..

    Since 2000,   20 of the 22 BAFTA Lead Actress winners at least got a LFCC nomination, of which 14 of them (70%) also won LFCC.

    I think Colman takes both but we will have an idea when LFCC announces their winners.

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    The Northman
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    #1204739731

    LFCC / BAFTAs winner since 2011

    2011: Same (tied winner for LFCC Meryl)
    2012: Same
    2013: Same
    2014: Same
    2015: Different (Rampling wasn’t nom for BAFTA)
    2016: Different (Hupert wasn’t nom for BAFTA)
    2017: Same
    2018: Same
    2019: Same
    2020: Same

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    Aaron Kalloo
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    #1204739738

    LFCC / BAFTAs winner since 2011 2011: Same (tied winner for LFCC Meryl) 2012: Same 2013: Same 2014: Same 2015: Different (Rampling wasn’t nom for BAFTA) 2016: Different (Hupert wasn’t nom for BAFTA) 2017: Same 2018: Same 2019: Same 2020: Same

    This just goes to show if you win LFCC and get a BAFTA nomination, you’re likely to win the BAFTA a well.

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    Rachel615
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    #1204739740

    I love how we continue to push this misconception that BAFTA will favor british actresses. This is not BIFA. Just take a look at the previous winners: 1. McDormand (American) 2. Zellweger (American) 3. Colman (British) 4. McDormand (American) 5. Stone (American) 6. Larson (American) 7. Moore (American) 8. Blanchett (Australian) 9. Lawrence (American) 10. Streep (American) So yeah can we please stop with X is going to be nominated/win because she’s british. 9 out of the last 10 winners were non-british. And Colman won 2 trifectas and plenty of regionals before she won BAFTA. It’s not like they gave it to her because “she was british”. She earned it.

    You make a good point but I note that in 2012, Emmanuelle Riva (French), and not Jennifer Lawrence (American) won the BAFTA.  In addition, I think it somewhat likely that a Brit (Mulligan) would have won last year instead of an American (McDormand) had there been no, or a different, jury system; moreover, in the previous decade five of the ten actresses who won the film BAFTA were British- Dench, Staunton, Mirren, Winslet, and Mulligan.

    Nobody is going to be nominated this year solely because they are British, and Colman has certainly earned all of her awards this year, but two things can be true at the same time– she can both deserve to win and have a modest advantage for the BAFTA due to being British.

     

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    M
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    #1204739743

    Yeah but 70% overlap is not really a great precursor? I mean I was sharing some stats before SAG. And it looked like Stewart had a 90% chance of making SAG based on history of GG + CCA + AACTA. And she still missed based on that 10% chance. So in this wild year, 70% won’t cut it for anything to be a lock honestly.

    Colman could win LFCC. But watch them give it to Stewart or Cruz if they’re not trying to predict the Oscars. I mean Toronto still awarded Cruz few days ago. So it wouldn’t shock me.

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    Aaron Kalloo
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    #1204739745

    Both McDormand and Mulligan got nominated at LFCC ….and McDormand still won.  So even if Mulligan got the BAFTA nomination, McDormand would have likely won regardless.

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    M
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    #1204739747

    in the previous decade five of the ten actresses who won the film BAFTA were British- Dench, Staunton, Mirren, Winslet, and Mulligan.

    Yeah but those are mostly people that also won the Globes before BAFTA?

    What I’m trying to say, there’s absolutely no basis for BAFTA favoring actors of british nationality. It’s just as simple as that. People who won BAFTA won important precursors before BAFTA. If anything, they undermined some of them like what happened with the Jury snubbing Mulligan last year.

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    The Northman
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    #1204739749

    Also, it is not helpful to look stats before 2011 for any estimate, because they are too old to represent a helpful sample now. The latest decade trend is more reliable. As for BAFTAs:

    Feb. 3rd BAFTAS noms

    Feb. 6th LFCC winner

    The winner voting will take place after LFCC announces their winner, this could be a reason they went with that last Decade. This is at least logical to me, because there is no other sizeable critics association to look into in the UK.

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    Aaron Kalloo
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    #1204739752

    Yeah but 70% overlap is not really a great precursor? I mean I was sharing some stats before SAG. And it looked like Stewart had a 90% chance of making SAG based on history of GG + CCA + AACTA. And she still missed based on that 10% chance. So in this wild year, 70% won’t cut it for anything to be a lock honestly. Colman could win LFCC. But watch them give it to Stewart or Cruz if they’re not trying to predict the Oscars. I mean Toronto still awarded Cruz few days ago. So it wouldn’t shock me.

    That 70% was respect to wins.  If we go by nomination… since the year 2000,    20 of the 22 BAFTA winners at least got a LFCC nomination. The only two who did not get a LFCC nomination were Nicole Kidman and Reese Witherspoon.

     

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    M
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    #1204739754

    Both McDormand and Mulligan got nominated at LFCC ….and McDormand still won. So even if Mulligan got the BAFTA nomination, McDormand would have likely won regardless.

    But we don’t know that for sure. We continue to assume that BAFTA will favor british contenders. We’ve been doing it since November here without basis.

    McDormand won NSFC and 24 regionals. Her film was a top tier BP contender. If BAFTA wanted to favor a british contender, they could’ve gone with Kirby (who I think also hit all the precursors including LFCC?)

    McDormand simply has strong support in the industry. And it showed when she repeated her wins at the Oscars and BAFTA within just 3 years.

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    Rachel615
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    #1204739757

    Both McDormand and Mulligan got nominated at LFCC ….and McDormand still won. So even if Mulligan got the BAFTA nomination, McDormand would have likely won regardless.

    I don’t think we’ll ever be able to know for sure.  I’m aware of two BAFTA voters who told a former law partner of mine that they would have voted for Mulligan for the BAFTA but decided not to because they were confident she would be nominated anyway, and voted instead for others– one for Kirby and one for Bakray– in an effort to boost their chances for a nomination.  Had all voters “simply” voted for their first choice, rather than engaging in strategizing, the outcome might have been different, or of course, it might well still have been the same. We’ll never know.

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    M
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    #1204739765

    I don’t think we’ll ever be able to know.  I know of two BAFTA voters who told a former law partner of mine that they would have voted for Mulligan for the BAFTA but decided not to because they were confident she would be nominated anyway, and voted instead for others– one for Kirby and one for Bakray– in an effort to boost their chances for a nomination.  Had all voters “simply” voted for their first choice, rather than engage in strategizing, the outcome might have been different, or of course, it might well still have been the same. We’ll never know.

    I think last year all nominations were decided by a Jury. So Mulligan’s only way of a breakthrough is through a jury.

    Honestly based on the BAFTA longlists, I think the top 2 last year were McDormand and Viola Davis. They loved Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. And considering she won SAG it wouldn’t have been far fetched for someone as respected as she is to make the top 2.

    Mulligan was the best contender last year, but I think the movie probably made a lot of men uncomfortable. I don’t have any other explanation as to why such a great performance continued to be snubbed one precursor after the other.

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    The Northman
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    #1204739771

    I don’t think we’ll ever be able to know for sure. I’m aware of two BAFTA voters who told a former law partner of mine that they would have voted for Mulligan for the BAFTA but decided not to because they were confident she would be nominated anyway, and voted instead for others– one for Kirby and one for Bakray– in an effort to boost their chances for a nomination. Had all voters “simply” voted for their first choice, rather than engaging in strategizing, the outcome might have been different, or of course, it might well still have been the same. We’ll never know.

    How did these “friends” of yours voted, when it was all-jury vote ?

     

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    jpsps
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    #1204739777

    LFCC / BAFTAs winner since 2011

    2011: Same (tied winner for LFCC Meryl)
    2012: Same
    2013: Same
    2014: Same
    2015: Different (Rampling wasn’t nom for BAFTA)
    2016: Different (Hupert wasn’t nom for BAFTA)
    2017: Same
    2018: Same
    2019: Same
    2020: Same

    So it’s over for Gaga since she wasn’t nominated to London circle, that sucks but I still think Stewart will win both

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