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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 62)

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    French-Girl
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    #1204739990

    Prediction by Wolfali

    Leading Actress

    (membership pick predictions in bold)

    1. Tessa Thompson, Passing – This performance is everything a BAFTA jury loves and more.

    2. Joanna Scanlan, After Love – Look I won’t call her a lock (this is a competitive field) but the passion for this performance is through the ROOF. Scanlan managed to get into a competitive LFCC field and the word of mouth for her work brought the film along on the long-list in a category like original screenplay. Her performance is one of the showiest in this category and she’s a well respected (and arguably under-recognised) veteran character actress playing a British Muslim convert in a gritty homegrown indie. She just checks off so many boxes.

    3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter – I’m terrified at how high I have her here with her previous snubs but if I’m putting Cumberbatch and Garfield higher in my best actor predictions because of hometown advantage in a wide open race then really I should be doing the same with the most popular British thespian right now. There does feel like a narrative that’s developed here that this is the first time since her Oscar win that she’s delivered a performance that has shown everyone the full force of Olivia Colman and there seems to be a lot of support behind her whether it’s with the fact she hasn’t missed a televised award, her resurgence with the London film critics who didn’t even nominate her for best British actress last year or the overall industry passion for this performance. So many actors both in and outside of the Hollywood circuit have shown their love for her performance here and its long-list performance clearly shows its quite a well watched film. I’d probably say that her chances of making it with a jury if she misses the top 2 are much higher than any of the big “Oscar contenders” (aside from maybe Kristen) but if she does miss entirely it would only go to show how the bar is unfortunately much higher for actors of Colman’s stature.
     

    4. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World – She’s perhaps the biggest “underdog” in this category considering this is a breakthrough performance and her performance is the only one on any long-list this year that isn’t in the English language. She’s already won at Cannes and was nominated in that stacked LFCC lineup which goes to show how much passion there is for this performance and her performance and the film itself are quirky enough for a jury that favours idiosyncrasies to take to. The competitive nature of the field doesn’t make me feel completely sure in her getting in but I don’t think this is a performance that will have any problem standing out. Reinsve should perhaps be thanking her stars that Penelope Cruz didn’t make the long-list.

    5. Claire Rushbrook, Ali & Ava – This is really where things feel like a tossup situation. I do think the jury will favour homegrown indies so in goes Rushbrook. Like Scanlan she’s a veteran character actress who arguably hasn’t really been given their due but whilst she has strong notices for this film, she hasn’t received anywhere near as much recognition for this performance as Scanlan has for hers or Rushbrook’s own co-star has which makes me pause here. Two handers can really play either way because if your performance doesn’t stand out as much as your co-stars, it can hurt you with a jury with a ranked ballot. See how Viola Davis and Olivia Colman missed last year in spite of the former’s performance being incredibly showy and the latter being in the British film of the year. Rushbrook obviously doesn’t have the same profile as Davis and Colman and an interracial love story from one of the country’s most respected independent film directors feels like something a jury would go all out for but it also wouldn’t surprise me if she did miss.

    6. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci – I have zero confidence in this prediction but House of Gucci did well on the long-lists so here we are! I think one thing a Gaga nomination would be indicative of is love and passion for House of Gucci which is something I’m not sure the long-lists are indicative of. Jared Leto, Al Pacino and Adam Driver made the long-lists but is that really indicative of love for the film and Gaga as opposed to the fact they were always contenders to get in here due to the visibility of the film and Ridley? 

    ——————————————————————————————————–

    7. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos – She’s received the same amount of BAFTA nominations in her career as she has Oscar ones (although two of her nominations were for different projects to her Oscar ones) and the actors branch clearly liked Being the Ricardos enough to long-list a SAG snubbed J.K. Simmons. I might switch Gaga out for her before the predictions centre closes although the one thing that is stopping me from doing so is that I feel like she might have peaked a bit too late. I guess with this category one has to ask themselves how contenders in previous years would have fared under this system. If voting for the top 2 had closed a few days before the Globes in 2019, would Glenn Close have made the BAFTA top 2 or would it have been Gaga and Olivia considering their films were bigger contenders and at the time they were bigger contenders themselves?

    8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story – The film may be more gp fare and the consensus is that her co-stars over-shadowed her but Zegler at the end of the day this is Zegler’s debut screen performance, she was 18 during principal photography and this is a performance that had quite a strong reception. A nomination for her would also be recognition of a Latinx thespian.

    9. Kristen Stewart, Spencer – After her SAG snub I’ve moved her down to 4th at the Oscars and I’ve more or less given up any prediction on her winning the Oscar but I’m still not ruling her out of making it into the top 2 here. There’s no doubt Spencer under-performed on the long-list but at the same I’m not sure if Sally Hawkins missing the long-list is really indicative of weakness for Stewart when Spencer is essentially a one woman show and the actors branch could just not have cared about it much outside of Stewart. The way I feel about Stewart is kind of the opposite of Kidman. She was technically the frontrunner and had all the momentum on the day voting closed so really there should be no reason for her to miss? Unless she was never in the top 2 which is also just as possible and I guess considering I have her 9th is something I’m assuming? I guess part of why I’m also hesitant about having Stewart in this position in my predictions is that I can also see hr making it in with a jury. Kristen Stewart may not be an under-dog but the work here feels like the kind that thrives with a smaller viewing body like a jury as opposed to a wider voting body because it’s a performance that has more passion than it has consensus. I can also see the fact that her performance and film aren’t really the same type of “traditional biopic” as the rest of the biopic contenders in this category’s are end up favouring her.

    10. Emilia Jones, CODA – Perhaps I should have her higher than Zegler and Stewart because of the type of performer Jones is and independent drama CODA is but I’m not convinced about the amount of passion Jones’ performance has. She definitely is deserving of a nomination but I can also see her being the Kingsley Ben-Adir of this season where in spite of delivering performances worthy of recognition and fitting all the criteria here (British, rising star, in a social drama), they’re just over-shadowed in passion by the work of their co-stars. Is it telling that Jones missed at the Spirits whilst Kotsur still made it in? CODA being a drama about a deaf family and their hearing daughter/interpreter keeps her in contention but at the same time I’m not sure how high brow the jury will see a light hearted coming of age film as? I do think Kotsur is safe in supporting actor regardless though.

    11. Jennifer Hudson, Respect – As basic a biopic this film is there’s no doubt people love Hudson’s work in it and that there isn’t really an abundance of poc performers on this long-list. Her film might not be very arthouse like Stewart’s is by any means but I can also see her work appealing to the jury because Hudson isn’t really giving “an impression” of Franklin in this performance. Not betting on her getting in but I also wouldn’t be surprised if she did.

    12. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth – An older thespian playing Lady Macbeth. That’s literally all McDormand needs to stand out with a jury here never mind the type of noir drama The Tragedy of Macbeth is or McDormand’s type of acting style igniting its own passion. I would probably be predicting her here if she didn’t just win.

    13. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza – I’ve posted more times than I can remember about how this film feels like the type of “cool” jury pick across each category but at the same time whilst Haim’s work in this film does inspire passion, it’s one of the few performances in this category I can imagine will garner some lower placements on some jurors’ ranked ballots (the controversy over the character and characterisation, Haim being a singer turned thespian etc).

    14 & 15. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye & Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up 

    🐾 Father, Son and House of Gaga 🐾

    - Best actress : Lady Gaga / Nicole Kidman / Penelope Cruz / Jodie Comer / Olivia Colman

    - Best Actor : will Smith/ Benedict Cumberbatch / Adam Driver ( for Annette) /

    - Best picture : The power of Dogs

    - Best photography : Spencer

    Profile picture
    bobpix
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    #1204740009

    This century, only two BAFTA Lead Actress winners missed a LFCC nomination. Nicole Kidman (2003) and Reese Witherspoon (2006), everyone else at least got a nomination at LFCC

     

    Yeah, that’s why I think Gaga chances are too low

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    ejaru1810
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    #1204740016

    I feel kind of confident about these four for BAFTA

    -Olivia Colman
    -Renate Reinsve
    -Joanna Scanlan
    -Tessa Thompson

    the last two spots are wide open

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    Anthagiox
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    #1204740037

    This century, only two BAFTA Lead Actress winners missed a LFCC nomination. Nicole Kidman (2003) and Reese Witherspoon (2006), everyone else at least got a nomination at LFCC

    Yes, but this is 2022 and we’ve been seeing time and time again how virtually all of these critics circles are getting things wrong, or at the very least aren’t following industry support. BAFTA may very well fall in line with LFCC, but this year’s too much of a clusterfuck to know ahead of time.

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    rue
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    #1204740047

    Watch Olivia get snubbed entirely from BAFTA

    FYC:
    That's Where I Am by Maggie Rogers - Song of the Year, Record of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance, Best Music Video, Best Country Song, Best Melodic Rap Performance, Best Traditional R&B Performance, Best Country Solo Performance, Best Rap Solo Performance, Best Metal Performance, Best Rock Song, Best American Roots Performance

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    #1204740056
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    xohours
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    #1204740076

    Cruz may very well win LFCC and we’ll be back to square one w the BAFTA & Oscars

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    Babylonian
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    Aug 16th, 2021
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    #1204740079

    I could totally see Gaga taking the BAFTA despite the LFCC snub.

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

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    Almond
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    Apr 27th, 2020
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    #1204740086

    “And the winner is…oh, we have a tie”

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    blueno_red
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    Aug 19th, 2021
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    #1204740089

    I saw the supposed leaked Chastian Oscar clip, and I’m a little disturbed with the makeup and camera angle direction for that scene. Make her definitely look like a real like caricature sketch.

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    borisy
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    #1204740097

    “And the winner is…oh, we have a tie”

    and the oscar goes to… Jessica Chastain and Frances McDormand

    #1204740099

    Watch Olivia get snubbed entirely from BAFTA

    There’s no way in hell that’s happening.

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    MultipleOscarWinner
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    #1204740101

    Would Olivia be a jury pick or top two? Sorry, I still don’t really get how they do this even though it’s been explained 3,000 times.

    Considering the uncertainty of the actual frontrunner and in case she gets nominated, we would have no idea unless they announce who and what happens to be top 2 for each category. Does anyone know if it will be public knowledge or will they just announce the final slate and that’s it?

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    ejaru1810
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    #1204740105

    Considering the uncertainty of the actual frontrunner and in case she gets nominated, we would have no idea unless they announce who and what happens to be top 2 for each category. Does anyone know if it will be public knowledge or will they just announce the final slate and that’s it?

    I honestly doubt they will say who was top 2, they’ll probably announce the 6 nominees and call it a day.

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    Axel
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    Jan 26th, 2019
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    #1204740111

    I think since Kristen nominated for LFCC she has good chances at BAFTA. BUT William is a head of BAFTA and it’s the only thing that could snub Kristen from nomination. Royal family good image is very important for dem nowadays so we will see how things turn out 👿

    Oscar 2022 favs:

    Best Picture: Drive my Car 🚗
    Best Actor: Andrew Garfield / Will Smith
    Best Acress: Kristen Stewart / Penelope Cruz
    Best Director: Ryusuke Hamaguchi
    Best Sup Actor: Kodi Smit-Mcphee
    Best Sup Actress: Kristen Dunst / Ariana DeBose

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