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Films that missed PGA but got in BP from the past 7 years:
2021: The Father
2020: none
2019: none
2018: Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread
2017: None
2016: Room
2015: Selma
I know the Father was released super late so maybe there is a screener issue? Someone who followed last year race know better. Otherwise, it’s looking really really bad for HoG and TLD.
PGA went with streaming movies this year, Netflix scored big with 3 movies(DLU, TTB, TPOTD), so I guess a 4th nom for TLD would be a reach. Amazon only scored for Ricardos, so I guess being the main awards push of a studio helps here, unlike Netflix. Wonder if this a sign TLD is a divisive film, since it has great metacritic score but bad audience score.
Alana lost the Comedy GG, missed AACTA, missed SAG and will not be nominated for the BAFTA.
I don’t know how she will land that nomination…
Good for Nicole, she’s looking like a strong frontrunner now. Still hope Olivia might spoil.
FYC:
That's Where I Am by Maggie Rogers - Song of the Year, Record of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance, Best Music Video, Best Country Song, Best Melodic Rap Performance, Best Traditional R&B Performance, Best Country Solo Performance, Best Rap Solo Performance, Best Metal Performance, Best Rock Song, Best American Roots PerformanceThis race will too predictable if BTR is nominated in BP. We need Nicole snubbed at the BFTAS or BTR missing BP, so we can guess who the winner will be until the last minute.
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.I am really confused with HOG and BTR chances after today because, HOG got snubbed on the guilds but its still the only actress film with the cast SAG nom so I dont know if there is enough support on it. While BTR got PGA and WGA where it shows that there is a lot of support yet someone told me that almost every Sorkin Work gets nominated on those and the movie missed hair and make up Oscar long list which is important for a biopic
We can find positive arguments for both movies. For example, last year, Ma Rainey got both SAG and PGA nominations, but missed BP.
In the end movies that speak to the heart of the Academy as a whole will land in BP. BTR is a movie about old Hollywood, it has an audience already and it is the type of movie to be picked by AMPAs. So far, BTR as I said here some time ago did focused promo in GG, SAG, PGA. There were PGA screenings, early January. We just see now the results of that. They have one of the best teams in the business.
I am really confused with HOG and BTR chances after today because, HOG got snubbed on the guilds but its still the only actress film with the cast SAG nom so I dont know if there is enough support on it. While BTR got PGA and WGA where it shows that there is a lot of support yet someone told me that almost every Sorkin Work gets nominated on those and the movie missed hair and make up Oscar long list which is important for a biopic
Every year there will be SAG cast ensemble nominee missed out on BP, but rarely do movies missed PGA could get into BP. So BTR is far far ahead of HoG right now. Getting into PGA is way more important than getting into makeup/costume shortlist.
It’s looking very very bad for HoG and Gaga at this point. HoG did not only missed PGA, but also AFI, NBR, GG, and CC. It’s likely not gonna make Bafta. I think Gaga still has some chance of nomination, but that will require some unprecedented twist, which is theoretically possible still.
I don’t know if this is good comparison but industry wise, House of Gucci is looking kinda like Bombshell, many SAG mentions, Make Up Guild mentions and CCA noms for acting and make-up that ended up in 2 acting noms and 1 make-up win. We will wait to see what the BAFTAs noms look like, but it is bit similar.
It’s looking very very bad for HoG and Gaga at this point. HoG did not only missed PGA, but also AFI, NBR, GG, and CC. It’s likely not gonna make Bafta. I think Gaga still has some chance of nomination, but that will require some unprecedented twist, which is theoretically possible still.
HOG missing PGA has nothing to do with Gaga chances of being nominated. It’s the actors branch that matters in this case, and Gaga secured her SAG nod. Nicole will probably be the only nominated actress in a movie nominated in BP.
HoG did not only missed PGA, but also AFI, NBR, GG, and CC.
Lol please, BTR missed all the equivalents of BP except PGA. And HoG same except SAG. They’re almost on equal footing. Let’s not be dramatic.
And if anything SAG Ensemble is more important for a nomination than PGA, since it’s the actors branch that determine the nominees.
So I understand it can be slow and boring these days, but let’s not overreact to one announcement. HOG, BTR and TLD are fighting for the 10th spot. So basically it’s like fillers of the fillers.
With that logic Chastain won’t even be able to enter the Dolby Theater vicinity
Lol please, BTR missed all the equivalents of BP except PGA. And HoG same except SAG. They’re almost on equal footing. Let’s not be dramatic. And if anything SAG Ensemble is more important for a nomination than PGA, since it’s the actors branch that determine the nominees. So I understand it can be slow and boring these days, but let’s not overreact to one announcement. HOG, BTR and TLD are fighting for the 10th spot. So basically it’s like fillers of the fillers.
The rules are: if HOG doesn’t get every possible nomination, Gaga may not get in. But, if other movies flops equally or harder like The Eyes of Tammy Faye, well, the leading actresses of those movies still have great chances.
With that logic Chastain won’t even be able to enter the Dolby Theater vicinity
Clayton just posted new prediction following all Guillds, taking Chastain and Stewart out. 😭
Oscars Predictions: Best Actress – Too Few Spots for Too Many Lead Actress Contenders https://t.co/b2f3VNLzMr via @variety
— Clayton Davis (@ByClaytonDavis) January 27, 2022
I just find this Cruz placement at this very stage absurd.
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