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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 66)

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    vissen
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    Jan 16th, 2022
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    #1204756504

    its really weird how these self-proclaimed cinephiles and movie experts on twitter complain about gagas interviews and call her oscar campaign aggressive when everyone else is doing the same

    you would think they’d know how this works by now  but no

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    kamila
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    #1204756506

    If you’re not the frontrunner, you have to campaign in some form.

    Funny how they haven’t commented on the Tom Holland Q&A with Cumberbatch which was just as campaigny.

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    BigJay2012
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    #1204756508

    It’s crazy that Scarlett Johansson still doesn’t have an Oscar win despite being the highest-grossing actress of all time (and the second highest-grossing actor overall).

    Does she have any Oscar-baity roles in the pipeline? She should have won for “Lost in Translation.”

    Over Charlize? Girl….

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204756510

    It’s crazy that Scarlett Johansson still doesn’t have an Oscar win despite being the highest-grossing actress of all time (and the second highest-grossing actor overall)

    LOL. I’m a Scarlett fan but this is just ridiculous. She lucked out with a big franchise that makes money no matter who they cast. Outside of Lucy, she didn’t open a movie on her own so not exactly where Julia Roberts used to be. Not to mention actors who don’t need a franchise or even one the same safe genre to open movies continuously (Leo). But to answer your question, she doesn’t have the Oscar cause nobody in their right mind would nominate her for Black Widow character. She did a fine job but nothing awards worthy. Yes, blockbusters can produce an oscar-worthy performance (Ledger, Phoenix) but this was not one of them. Especially in that cash grab crap Black Widow (solo flick).

     

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    pierremg
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    Jan 9th, 2017
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    #1204756516

    We need some secret ballots. With just six ballots, I was able to predict Kristen would miss SAG.

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    Lil Tony
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    Sep 17th, 2018
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    #1204756522

    If there’s justice in this awful World, Lady Gaga would have it in the bag now. I don’t want to believe that great acting isn’t appreciated anymore.

    I mean….Gaga should be winning with Tessa Thompson as a nominee

    Anticipate "Hold My hand".

    Lady Gaga is a genius

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    Lil Tony
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    Sep 17th, 2018
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    #1204756528

    Watched Passing again. It’s painful that Tessa Thompson isn’t in the race. So sad cos she’s not Margot Robbie or Emma Stone. She’s a black woman and they’re not rushing to cast her in baity roles. She really needs this.

    Anticipate "Hold My hand".

    Lady Gaga is a genius

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    #1204756530
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    #1204756533
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    kallewickans
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    #1204756537

    It showed that Nicole Kidman is the true Best Actress frontrunner as Being the Ricardos earned a surprise PGA nomination over stiff competition like House of Gucci, Spider-Man: No Way Home and No Time to Die. Fascinating when you consider the group ‘Theatrical Motion Picture’ right in its awards title opted not for three theatrical-only box office hits but went heavy on streamers; five of the 10 PGA nominees are from Amazon, Apple and Netflix. You can even make the argument that it’s really seven as Dune and King Richard went day/date with their theatrical and HBO Max release. But even as the Oscars are back to a straight 10 Best Picture nominees and simpler voting structure, PGA and the Academy have never lined up perfectly. Not even in 2009 and 2010 when we had the first 10-nominee list for Best Picture in this now decade-old expanded era. I think we’ll get 9/10 from that list with Being the Ricardosbeing the most precarious.

     

    We also saw guild after guild snub Spencer, putting Kristen Stewart in jeopardy of a mere nomination, much less a near impossible shot at winning. She’ll need BAFTA next week to survive as Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), NBR and Golden Globe winner Rachel Zegler (West Side Story), SAG nominee Jennifer Hudson (Respect) and LAFCA/NSFC winner Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) are waiting for any chance to break in and there is a path for nearly every one of them to not simply unseat Stewart but another biopic actress. Or maybe they’re already there…

     

    BEST ACTRESS

    1. Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist
    2. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist
    3. Lady Gaga – House of Gucci (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist
    4. Jennifer Hudson – Respect (MGM/UAR) – SAG, BAFTA longlist
    5. Kristen Stewart – Spencer (NEON) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist

     

     

    I have the exact line up and ranking as Erik.

     

     

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    #1204756539
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    fastlane
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    Dec 23rd, 2021
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    #1204756541

    If you’re not the frontrunner, you have to campaign in some form. Funny how they haven’t commented on the Tom Holland Q&A with Cumberbatch which was just as campaigny.

    Because they’re men.
    Same reason why this thread is on part 66 and Best Actor is on part 11.

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    Babylonian
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    Aug 16th, 2021
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    #1204756545

    Well, her filmography includes a lot of Oscar-worthy performances (The Horse Whisperer, Ghost World, Girl With a Pearl Earring, Her Don Jon, Under the Skin, Match Point). She also lost twice at the 2020 Oscars and was shut out in 2003 despite winning the BAFTA (Lost In Translation was one of the frontrunners of the year on top of that). It’s clear that the Academy has some sort of grudge against her. She’s clearly one of the most accomplished actresses of our generation.

    I doubt any grudge exists if she was double nominated in a single year.

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

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    M
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    #1204756550

    The Oscar voting system is so weird. I created a simulation system to see which is more important having more community votes overall or more #1 votes (community votes meaning any vote 1-5).

    The chances are weighed random chances. And there are 1.3k+ voters in the simulation.

    Olivia Colman and Lady Gaga were both #1 and #2 respectively in community votes and #1 votes. They were the first to qualify for a nomination in that order. But it still took 9 rounds of elimination for the first nomination to happen, and 3 qualifed by virtue of all other contenders being eliminated, which is crazy.

    Community votes total:

    #1 votes total:

    And final nominees:


    In this particular simulation, Colman and Gaga were both leading in community votes and #1 votes. So they were safe for a nomination.

    Tessa Thompson was 3rd in #1 votes but 6th in community votes. That still allowed her to be the 3rd to qualify for a nomination.

    Jessica Chastain was 3rd in community votes but 7th in #1 votes and that made her miss at round 9.

    Nicole Kidman was 4th in community votes and 5th in #1 votes. She made it.

    Jennifer Hudson was 5th in community votes and 6th in #1 votes. She made it.

    Kristen Stewart was 4th in #1 votes, but 7th in community votes. She missed.

    The next step for me, is to have the computer run a thousand simulation of these and generate statistics.

    But for now it seems that the takeaway is you need a balance between community votes and #1 votes. If you have many #1 votes but far behind in community votes, you can still miss.

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    Lucas
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    Jun 24th, 2020
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    #1204756552

    Are they good predicting? 

    They predicted the Hopkins and the Parasite upsets. But yeah, they are not the Bible.

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