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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 68)

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    UnionCityMood
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    #1204764249

    This conversation is precisely why I think Gaga will ultimately miss. Unless you’re an absolute legend like Glenn Close, your overall movie failing you probably means you’ll barely miss out, like Lopez or Chalamet.

    If that’s the logic, then it’ll be Chastain and Stewart to miss. None of them are Glenn Close, and both movies are much behind House of Gucci in terms of industry support. HoG is still in conversation of BP while Tammy Faye and Spencer rarely hit the conversation.

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    James Gibson
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    #1204764251

    Leto was beyond offensive. How this performance is even getting recognition is ridiculous. I already knew he was going to be bad but I didn’t know he was going to be THAT awful.

    I agree, he really drags the film down whenever he appears.

    Four more scenes and Salma Hayek would be a supporting actress nominee. I really loved her in that scene where she told Gaga to where something with a touch of green

    Salma suggested many of her good scenes being cut, including the infamous moment of her and Gaga making out post the murder.

    What is so annoying about Leto is if he was removed entirely from the film it wouldn’t cause a single plot hole. He was not only terrible but also useless. While Salma and even Jeremy’s characters affected the story more and could’ve added more layers if their scenes weren’t cut. So the insistency on Leto’s comic
    reliefs only damaged the film as a whole.

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    estrelas
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    #1204764254

    For her to miss the oscar she would’ve miss everything else, it ain’t happening she got raves and accolades for this performance

    I don’t see her missing but since when do you need to miss everything to miss an Oscar nom? Several people in the past have failed to get an Oscar nom despite hitting everywhere and winning accolades for the performance.

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    #1204764258
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    borisy
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    #1204764262

    I don’t see her missing but since when do you need to miss everything to miss an Oscar nom? Several people in the past have failed to get an Oscar nom despite hitting everywhere and winning accolades for the performance.

    not that many people, and as I said she was acclaimed and won a few important awards so she ain’t missing

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    The Northman
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    #1204764264

    I guess it really comes down to these few options. For now I’m seeing HoG vs Don’t Look Up: Both popular films that people know about, mixed critical response, famous cast. Tick Tick Boom vs The Lost Daughter: Both Netflix films, if both get in there will be possibly 4 Netflix films in BP. Critical acclaim, lukewarm audience reception (TTB has good audience score but barely anyone saw the film, TLD performed better in viewership but receptions are divisive.) BTR vs MacBeth: Both streaming films with big names behind (Amazon vs Apple), and being the top targets as in promotion. Both Denzel and Nicole are strong contenders in lead acting category, with a potential co-star surprise (Frances&Javier). Strong producer/writer support for BTR and strong tech guilds support for Macbeth. Potential spoiler: Drive My Car (foreign voters passion pick)

    Dont Look Up is safely in with TTB.

    The Movies for 10th spot I think are:

    BTR(has PGA+2 lead SAG noms+ WGA)

    HoG (has 3 SAG noms+some tech guilds)

    MacBeth (has some tech Guilds+ 1 SAG nom)

    Drive My Car(few critic awards)

    Parallel Mothers

    Nightmare Alley(missed BAFTAs Film)

    Thats all.

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    estrelas
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    #1204764270

    not that many people, and as I said she was acclaimed and won a few important awards so she ain’t missing

    Sure

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    UnionCityMood
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    #1204764275

    True but yet HOG is the one with the SAG cast: 1218 and now the CSA I think both are pretty equal fighting for that spot.

    Keep in mind that the SAG noms don’t really represent how the actors branch are feeling. The random pick 2500 votes may have a really small overlap with the 1218 voters.

    And even if the SAG noms are accurately representing actors branch, BTR will be on the same level of HoG. While not being nominated of Ensemble, it landed 2 lead actors nominations. HoG has ensemble, lead actresses and supporting actor. Plus Nicole’s status may be extra boost when it comes to the Academy actors branch.

    But I do agree that the two films aren’t that far apart from each other. While I think BTR has the advantage, HoG is still in the conversation for sure.

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    sadins
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    #1204764279

    True but yet HOG is the one with the SAG cast: 1218 and now the CSA I think both are pretty equal fighting for that spot.

    HOG acting overall is indeed more appreciated than BTR. But as far as movie itself goes, BTR is preferred. For now I believe BTR is ahead of HOG but not by large margin and not equal.

     

    I might change my view when BATA noms are out, but for now BTR seems more likely to get into best picture.

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    Heptapod
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    #1204764285

    There’s always at least one performer who hits nearly every major precursor, give or take a BAFTA, then misses the Oscar. With how many critically acclaimed lead actresses there are waiting in the wings to surprise, I think that surprise snub will be in Actress.

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    #1204764289
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    James Gibson
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    #1204764291

    This conversation is precisely why I think Gaga will ultimately miss. Unless you’re an absolute legend like Glenn Close, your overall movie failing you probably means you’ll be dropped for someone from a more acclaimed project, like Lopez or Chalamet.

    HoG performed well in multiple precursors where it was supposed to miss after its somewhat weak reception (which was nowhere panned like Hillbilly Elegy).
    And while Glenn is a recognizable legend, she only got in last year in support of Netflix, hence her being a no1curr for Four Good Days this year.

    MGM is doing such a massive campaign with this film and it proved better reception than predicted. Lopez and Chalamet were their sole films push with weak visibility when they missed. HoG is already a craft contender for Costumes and Makeup at least. This comparison doesn’t make much sense tbh.

    #1204764298

    This conversation is precisely why I think Gaga will ultimately miss. Unless you’re an absolute legend like Glenn Close, your overall movie failing you probably means you’ll be dropped for someone from a more acclaimed project, like Lopez or Chalamet.

    That’s grasping at straws, though. Rami Malek won Best Actor for a film that while the audiences and industry loved, the critics were mixed on it. Mahershala Ali won his second Oscar for a film that the industry loved, critics liked and a good portion of the audience didn’t mess with.

    I don’t see HoG having mixed critical reception hurting Gaga at all, nor should it. Besides, even critics who didn’t like the movie tend to agree that she was easily the best part of it.

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    sadins
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    #1204764304

    I don’t know why we are discussing Gaga missing Oscar nom. This conversation would have made sense in December.

    But not now, she is very much locked in for a nomination as one can possibly get.

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