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I think this race is down to 6 contenders. Gaga and Kidman seem to be two in the race for the win. Colman is out of win contention but still safe. I’m a little shakier on Chastain even though she has basically the same route as Colman – that’s likely just me being led by personal taste so I’ll still predict her. I think Haim is in realistically – she was almost certainly Top 2 at BAFTA which was a welcome and signficant surprise. I can’t write off Stewart though – granted you can point to Sandler, Hawke, Colette and Nyong’o as precedents but I don’t think any got a Globe + CC combo. It’s also the most Oscar-friendly of all five roles. I can see a scenario where she bumps out Chastain or holds off Haim.
I’m keeping an eye on Reinsve as a possible spoiler. That film has been building up buzz and her performance is getting lots of praise and attention still, whilst everyone else has sort of cooled off. BAFTA nom and Cannes win can only help too, and I think it’s win-competitive in International.
I am keeping Penelope Cruz in for many reasons, but my big one is she won two major critic awards- LA and National Society of Film Critics. Marion Cotillard won NY and NSFC for 2 Days, 1 Night in 2015 when she failed SAG, BAFTA and Globe nominations.
The academy often nominates a foreign language performance, especially in the lead actress races. We saw this also with Roma and Amour. I think Cruz also is an industry favorite, a previous Oscar winner, and even got a nomination for the dreadful Nine musical – reminding us she’s that favorable, and talented.
The more I look at the BAFTA nominations, the more they feel like junk. Colman misses but Jessie Buckley makes it in? COME ON. It’s their stupid new voting system.
It’s hard now to get breakdowns of these races without going through memes and gifs of Stans posting lady Gaga and Kristen Stewart pop ups. I would like to actually read some credible and intriguing analysis on what exactly happened with these BAFTA picks- and how Colman could miss, but her mute costar manages to get in. How West Side Story is getting it’s supporting actress to hit all the marks, but Rachel Zegler is an afterthought? Sheep mentality? Or is Zegler not as great as the Globes thought?
And once again, Denzel Washington is left in the cold. The BAFTA committee really must hate him. They never nominate him. I think there’s more going on then meets the eye here.
And Nicole Kidman misses, but Sorkin’s mediocre script makes the cut? That just seems random.
Hopefully the official Oscar nominations will set everything back to where it should be. With Kidman vs Colman. That’s what Goldderby and all their experts were touting all this time I mean, how do they get to get paid all this money to be experts and then never get close to getting their predictions right, like the forum posters often do?
I did see House of Gucci, and thought Gaga and Adam Driver were amazing (along with Jeremy Irons). I found Leto distracting, and immensely helped by the pounds of makeup he was wearing. Driver gives the better male performance in the film, and is being thrown to the side.
I’m on the Kidman team, but can anyone please explain to me again how Olivia Colman got snubbed? If I were Donald Trump, I would actually say the voting system with BAFTA was rigged, because NOBODY predicted her to be shafted- and yet she got bumped. Something isn’s right here. And you can scroll through page after page of everyone saying Colman was going to win her second Oscar. And now this mess. Ditto for Kidman. It just doesn’t make any sense.
And since BAFTA is the last major precursor before the Academy Awards, it appears voters do turn into sheep and just pick who seems to be favored over the pond. Because if Colman had been nominated yesterday, most of the “experts” would have her winning- and not lady Gaga.
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I’m already thinking about the 2023 lineup
Nice line up but the Oscars aren’t going another year with an all white line up in Best Actress. Naomi Ackie is going to win for playing Whitney..
I think this race is down to 6 contenders. Gaga and Kidman seem to be two in the race for the win. Colman is out of win contention but still safe. I’m a little shakier on Chastain even though she has basically the same route as Colman – that’s likely just me being led by personal taste so I’ll still predict her. I think Haim is in realistically – she was almost certainly Top 2 at BAFTA which was a welcome and signficant surprise. I can’t write off Stewart though – granted you can point to Sandler, Hawke, Colette and Nyong’o as precedents but I don’t think any got a Globe + CC combo. It’s also the most Oscar-friendly of all five roles. I can see a scenario where she bumps out Chastain or holds off Haim.
I’m keeping an eye on Reinsve as a possible spoiler. That film has been building up buzz and her performance is getting lots of praise and attention still, whilst everyone else has sort of cooled off. BAFTA nom and Cannes win can only help too, and I think it’s win-competitive in International.
Both Renate Reinsve and Penelope Cruz deserve to be in the Oscar lineup.
If Renate is top 2, I could see her winning BAFTA, as much as I love Gaga being nominated, I think BAFTA won’t go for her.
If Renate is top 2, I could see her winning BAFTA, as much as I love Gaga being nominated, I think BAFTA won’t go for her.
If Renate is top 2, I could see her winning BAFTA, as much as I love Gaga being nominated, I think BAFTA won’t go for her.
She’s the only top contender nominated and yet they won’t go for her? They…already went for her.
FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category
Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song
House of Gucci got 500 longlist mentions, clearly the film isn’t beneath them, so why should the most acclaimed aspect be?
Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges
What’s Jean Smart project?
Babylon with Margot and Brad Pitt. She’s a supporting character.
Renate is the least likely to be top 2, well after Thompson, even less likely than Jones. People should check out the longlist and the nomination determined by the memberships if you want to know their tastes, BAFTA is a film industry award, not the tiny little critics circle that pretends to be high-brow.
So I’ve seen people predicting Scanlan, Haim and Reinsve, who’s next?
im newbie here
what is TOP 2 in Bafta??? i thought these 2 slots picked by juries…
im newbie here what is TOP 2 in Bafta??? i thought these 2 slots picked by juries…
Here:
Performance categories: the top two performances in each of the four acting categories voted for by the acting chapter in Round One will be automatically nominated, otherwise the longlisting and nominating jury process introduced for the 2021 Awards will continue.
So, there is already a Top 2 in Round 1, and the jury picks are the other 4.
I’m pretty confident that Gaga has BAFTA in the bag since all of her top contenders were eliminated, but Haim could be a possible spoiler. One should keep in mind that it’s an industry award so they won’t go for artsy picks that were saved by ten juries.
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