Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 71)

[Fitzgerald Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 0 Posts: 152 View Predictions]

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My prediction:
GG: Kidman
AACTA: Kidman
CC: Chastain
SAG: Chastain
BAFTA: Gaga
OSCAR: Chastain

I cannot justify my prediction but I feel like it is a 3-horse race between Chastain, Kidman and Gaga to the finish line.
Chastain never won an Oscar which could be an advantage for her.
Kidman is overdue for a second win. But if she is really beloved in the industry, she should have more than 4 nominations by now. They could have nominated her for To Die For and Destroyer but they didn’t.

[Rynd_Rawikara Joined: Aug 28th, 2021 Topics: 2 Posts: 317 View Predictions]

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Colman

(+)
– TLD is strong for Adapted Screenplay, and is arguably skirting outside BP and Supp. Actress
– An established name (both respected and well-liked); currently at her peak; good awards track record
– Acclaimed performance; Leda is a difficult person to play
– Got in at SAG for a performance that is relatively internal and a film that is not received well by wider audience (there is enough passion)
– Got in at Globes and CCA
– Netflix’s main focus for Best Actress, and they are campaigning her like crazy
– People respect Maggie Gyllenhaal

(-)
– TLD is not received well by wider audience
– Not nominated by AACTA (she got nominated and WON last year for The Father)
– Not nominated by BAFTA (her hometown; she’s not top 2, but unlikely to be outside top 5 methink)
– The role is an out-there role for most actresses

 

1. Gaga
2. Kidman
3. ?? Colman ??

[CarlosEdu Joined: Jan 16th, 2019 Topics: 1 Posts: 484 View Predictions]

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I really don’t know what to do with Penélope Cruz. She misses GG, CC, SAG and even in the BAFTA longlist but at same time she has a Volpi Cup and LAFCA+NSFC wins, nominations at AACTA and LFCC and many actors in the last days show some support to her perfomance.

[Faux architect Joined: Mar 29th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 183 View Predictions]

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Fitzgerald wrote:

My prediction: GG: Kidman AACTA: Kidman CC: Chastain SAG: Chastain BAFTA: Gaga OSCAR: Chastain I cannot justify my prediction but I feel like it is a 3-horse race between Chastain, Kidman and Gaga to the finish line. Chastain never won an Oscar which could be an advantage for her. Kidman is overdue for a second win. But if she is really beloved in the industry, she should have more than 4 nominations by now. They could have nominated her for To Die For and Destroyer but they didn’t.

Yeah. I think that, if anyone is going to get back in contention, it is Chastain. She has the makeup nom. She has the baitiest performance out of all of them. She can surprise at SAG.

Pantheon of acting: Uta / Elizabeth / Richard / Sandy (Virginia Woolf), Bibi / Liv (Persona), Sandrine (La Ceremonie), Brie (Short Term 12), Jodie (Silence of the Lambs), Jodie (Killing Eve), Nicole (The Others), Eva (Penny Dreadful), Timothée (CMBYN), Lupita (Us)

[Jose Anes Joined: Nov 25th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 10 View Predictions]

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Matthew_Barry wrote:

So if Kidman wins SAG and GaGa loses Bafta, then i suppose Kidman will win the Oscar.

How do people know that Lady GaGa was top 2 at Bafta. Is there any proof of this? I don’t get the new rules of bafta. I need to look them up.

Could you write Gaga name well?

[coopC Joined: Nov 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 486 View Predictions]

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Well, Chastain winning SAG will kill off Kidman’s winning chance, but all Gaga needs is the BAFTA win, which she has like 80% of winning (Well, 10 for Haim, 10 for Scanlan). Chastain winning the Oscar is like Colman winning the Oscar, if you know what I mean.

[Bonehead Is Afraid Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1705 View Predictions]

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Olivia Colman
Nicole Kidman
Lady Gaga
Renate Reinsve (NGNG)
Kristen Stewart

Spoiler: Alana Haim.

[kbc Joined: Sep 16th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1657 View Predictions]

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Bonehead Is Afraid wrote:

Olivia Colman
Nicole Kidman
Lady Gaga
Renate Reinsve (NGNG)
Kristen Stewart

Spoiler: Alana Haim.

I looove your NGNG!

FYC
Best Picture: "Aftersun" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Charlotte Wellls; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Frankie Corio; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Paul Mescal; Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Charlotte Wells
Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

[borisy Joined: May 29th, 2020 Topics: 3 Posts: 1964 View Predictions]

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If I could pick the 5th I would give to Tessa

[kbc Joined: Sep 16th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1657 View Predictions]

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Cruz
Gaga
Haim
Jones
Reinsve

I’d collapse out of joy

FYC
Best Picture: "Aftersun" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Charlotte Wellls; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Frankie Corio; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Paul Mescal; Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Charlotte Wells
Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

[Lil Tony Joined: Sep 17th, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 3524 View Predictions]

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borisy wrote:

If I could pick the 5th I would give to Tessa

I’m hoping she gets in. Tessa Thompson really needs this. She did a wonderful job in Passing

Gaga is slaying in Folie à Deux

[JV Joined: Dec 31st, 2019 Topics: 9 Posts: 5411 View Predictions]

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Chastain
Gaga
Haim
Kidman
Stewart

I’m not confident in Chastain at all (since September), but both Clayton and Feinberg not predicting her made me think she has a good chance of getting nominated (doing the opposite of what they do is often the easy path to having good scores). Predicting a Colman snub due to the BAFTA thing and The Lost Daughter as the lone Screenplay nominee of the year (that escalated quickly, but she’s really not campaigning so I guess she doesn’t care)

When it comes to nominations, this category is usually not that wild but this year I have a feeling only Gaga is safe and all the others could get snubbed because it’s a weird season (no GG or CC, extended voting, SAG with the influencers + BAFTA Top 2) and these movies don’t inspire me much confidence. Maybe it’s just over thinking and they go with the SAG 5 minus Hudson + Haim.

[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 0 Posts: 407 View Predictions]

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[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 0 Posts: 407 View Predictions]

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[JV Joined: Dec 31st, 2019 Topics: 9 Posts: 5411 View Predictions]

#1204776371

I literally don’t get the fanaticism around Spencer. As someone who is a Kristen Stewart fan, she’s been much better in much better movies like Clouds of Sils Maria (going h2h with goddess Juliette Binoche), Personal Shopper and Camp x Ray. What is worse is people making up excuses trying to explain her underperformance (like the royal family nonsense). The movie is cold, the performance is too calculated to make people feel anything and the screenplay is full of nonsenses. I still like the movie very much, but that’s the truth. I was expecting to be a hard fan of it when I heard the reactions out of Venice and defended the casting, but it didn’t click.

It bothers me that the regionals went with this performance instead of pushing Renate, Cruz or Tessa Thompson. Neon also believed too much in pundits/Film Twitter instead of pushing the Cannes Best Actress winner (I thought Parasite’d taught them that foreign language is not always a hard sell). It’s worth a remind that Neon failed to get I Tonya a Best Picture nomination so I guess we also overestimated their campaign power.