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Agree but there’s another factor with BAFTA which is that HoG is a British film (always goes in an actor’s favour), and BAFTA voters/institution honestly wanted to push Stewart out the race and Gaga was best placed to do that of all the nominees. I made the points months ago that the British establishment would push back against Spencer but the twitter crowd and critics just refused to acknowledge that actual voters would react this way (I liked Kristen’s performance but this was always going to be the reality). Cruz is probably the shakiest but I just don’t think it’s a good idea to underestimate the now huge international bloc rallying for foreign language performances. Those groups aren’t voting for Gaga.
I think Chastian is most vulnerable than Cruz with Chastian performance similar with Gaga.
I definitely think Gaga is getting nominated – this is a response to a previous post about winners. Sorry – but international voters are not voting for a campy fake Italian accent as their favourite performance of the year? Does that even need to be said? I really enjoyed Gaga’s performance but come on.
She was Top 2 (probably Top 1) at the BAFTAs, she was nominated at the ACTAAs and the only contender nominated at the Paris Film Critics Awards (there is not overlap with de Academy but that is telling something).
So HOW are international voters not voting for her? There are support for her campy, over-the-top, “fake italian” accent performance.
Nicole and Kidman being the front runner for Best Actress with two extremely different acting style. Nicole subtle vs Gaga the showy over the top perfomance. Who will prevail Nicole or Gaga?
Lol what
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.Nicole and Kidman being the front runner for Best Actress with two extremely different acting style. Nicole subtle vs Gaga the showy over the top perfomance. Who will prevail Nicole or Gaga?
At the moment Gaga has the upper hand because winning an Oscar without a BAFTA nomination is a very difficult feat to achieve; The only actress that did it this century was Hilary Swank for Million Dollar Baby (also Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side, but that was because her film was ineligible at the BAFTAs due to not being released in the UK in time).
Since last year we have been seeing a very big change in precursors relevancy to the Oscars, so I think with each year they’ll become more and more independent from each other and we will see way less sweeps. This is very difficult race to predict right now, if Kidman wins SAG she may me able to overcome the BAFTA snub, the GG + SAG combo is very strong so who knows…
Neon really put all the money campaign in Spencer, with hopes for Director, Actress, Costumes and cinematography and if somehow Rensive is nominated, instead of Stewart it will look really weird for them.
I hope next time studio are very careful with Pablo Larrain movie, not that he is bad director. But he creates movies that appeal to very limited number of people. And those limited number of people have very strong reaction to his movies, so studio thinks somehow that response will work with large bodies of votes. But it don’t.
I believe that if it wasn’t respected veteran like Portman, Jackie would have suffered the same fate as Spencer.
Right now I’m at:
1. Lady Gaga (Win Competitive)
2. Nicole Kidman (Win Competitive)
3. Alana Haim (Solid, but not win competitive)
4. Jessica Chastain (Fighting for Nomination)
5. Olivia Colman (Fighting for Nomination)
Closest in Line:
6. Kristen Stewart
7. Jennifer Hudson
8. Rachel Zegler
9. Penelope Cruz
10. Emilia Jones
I hope next time studio are very careful with Pablo Larrain movie, not that he is bad director. But he creates movies that appeal to very limited number of people. And those limited number of people have very strong reaction to his movies, so studio thinks somehow that response will work with large bodies of votes. But it don’t. I believe that if it wasn’t respected veteran like Portman, Jackie would have suffered the same fate as Spencer.
It is not Larrain issue only, Steven Knight the screenwriter putting weird things in it like that ghost of Anna Boleyn or the twist with Maggie saying she is having feelings for Diana in the end. Like it felt like the whole thing was too much.
Gaga: "I spoke with an accent all the time"
Film twitter: “another fanfic, Gaga?"
Gaga in between takes:pic.twitter.com/fdkUrSfcdR— Mabel🌹 (@lavieensale) February 5, 2022
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.My current predictions before Tuesday:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Nicole Kidman, Being the RicardosThese are the SAG nominees and I think they will go 5 for 5 this year. I keep on changing my mind between Chastain and Stewart… truly not certain but my gut feeling is that one of those two will be snubbed.
My wish list for nominees that I believe should be nominated:
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (I would love this one in particular!)And I also think that Ann Dowd and Martha Plimpton both belong in lead and not supporting.
Still haven’t seen Renate Reinsve in The Worst Person in the World…
Again, I highly doubt international votes automatically go to Cruz or Reinsve. Sure, they’re foreign language performance, but there is absolutely no proof that non-English speaker will just go for non-English performance. On the other side, I think the higher international turnout actually does well for Gaga than harms her. First, she’s incredibly famous, like on a global scale, not only English-speaking world. Then you have HoG, the B.O. performs excellently in U.K., Germany, Italy, Swiss, and Russia. It did decently in Spain, France, and Australia. She won’t suffer from visibility issue whereas Chastain, Hudson, Jones, and Reinsve do. The reason I’m keeping Chastain is that I believe she can rely on domestic support to seize the nomination. Especially the elderly voters who are familiar with Tammy Faye and have connection with her.
I agree with you. The logic people are using implies the international voters all saw the non-English films in contention, but there’s no evidence for that. A huge movie like HoG is still more likely to be seen by the international voters. It makes sense to think Gaga could be the girl the international block rallies behind.
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.My Nomination Predictions
Lady Gaga- “House of Gucci”
Nicole Kidman- “Being the Ricardo’s”
Olivia Colman- “The Lost Daughter”
Alana Haim- “Licorice Pizza”
Jessica Chastain- “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
My Nominations Hopes
Lady Gaga- “House of Gucci”
Alana Haim- “Licorice Pizza”
Penelope Cruz- “Parallel Mothers”
Tessa Thompson- “Passing”
Rachel Zegler- “West Side Story”
“Every time someone tries to win a war before it starts, innocent people die. Every time”
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