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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 71)

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  • Tweetygirly
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    #1204777013


    UnionCityMood
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    #1204777015

    Again, I highly doubt international votes automatically go to Cruz or Reinsve. Sure, they’re foreign language performance, but there is absolutely no proof that non-English speaker will just go for non-English performance.

    On the other side, I think the higher international turnout actually does well for Gaga than harms her. First, she’s incredibly famous, like on a global scale, not only English-speaking world. Then you have HoG, the B.O. performs excellently in U.K., Germany, Italy, Swiss, and Russia. It did decently in Spain, France, and Australia. She won’t suffer from visibility issue whereas Chastain, Hudson, Jones, and Reinsve do.

    The reason I’m keeping Chastain is that I believe she can rely on domestic support to seize the nomination. Especially the elderly voters who are familiar with Tammy Faye and have connection with her.


    Joined:
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    #1204777024
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.

    kallewickans
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    #1204777028

    Lol what

    Lol Type Nicole and Gaga 🤪😜


    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204777032

    My current predictions before Tuesday:

    Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
    Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
    Jennifer Hudson, Respect
    Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

    These are the SAG nominees and I think they will go 5 for 5 this year. I keep on changing my mind between Chastain and Stewart… truly not certain but my gut feeling is that one of those two will be snubbed.

    My wish list for nominees that I believe should be nominated:

    Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
    Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
    Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (I would love this one in particular!)

    And I also think that Ann Dowd and Martha Plimpton both belong in lead and not supporting.

    Still haven’t seen Renate Reinsve in The Worst Person in the World…


    Anthagiox
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    Sep 28th, 2021
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    #1204777034

    Again, I highly doubt international votes automatically go to Cruz or Reinsve. Sure, they’re foreign language performance, but there is absolutely no proof that non-English speaker will just go for non-English performance. On the other side, I think the higher international turnout actually does well for Gaga than harms her. First, she’s incredibly famous, like on a global scale, not only English-speaking world. Then you have HoG, the B.O. performs excellently in U.K., Germany, Italy, Swiss, and Russia. It did decently in Spain, France, and Australia. She won’t suffer from visibility issue whereas Chastain, Hudson, Jones, and Reinsve do. The reason I’m keeping Chastain is that I believe she can rely on domestic support to seize the nomination. Especially the elderly voters who are familiar with Tammy Faye and have connection with her.

    I agree with you. The logic people are using implies the international voters all saw the non-English films in contention, but there’s no evidence for that. A huge movie like HoG is still more likely to be seen by the international voters. It makes sense to think Gaga could be the girl the international block rallies behind.


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    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.

    2021ravenclaw1
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    #1204777046

    My Nomination Predictions 

    Lady Gaga- “House of Gucci”

    Nicole Kidman- “Being the Ricardo’s”

    Olivia Colman- “The Lost Daughter”

    Alana Haim- “Licorice Pizza”

    Jessica Chastain- “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”

    My Nominations Hopes

    Lady Gaga- “House of Gucci”

    Alana Haim- “Licorice Pizza”

    Penelope Cruz- “Parallel Mothers”

    Tessa Thompson- “Passing”

    Rachel Zegler- “West Side Story”

     

     

    “Every time someone tries to win a war before it starts, innocent people die. Every time”


    Anthagiox
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    #1204777051

    She already won 2 capri awards with her supposed “fake italian accent” including italian actress of the year so its clear that people from there don’t got a problem with her accent, she was nominated at AACTA and also she was the only of the possible top 5 that got nom for a important french award and now Bafta top 2, so really, there is no logic in your point. If anything Gaga has proved that her biggest strength is international

    I forgot about all of this. So Gaga has received support from Britain, Australia, France, and Italy. And she’s the only one to receive support from all of those factions.


    TomJerry
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    Oct 4th, 2020
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    #1204777053

    Final predictions:
    1. Kirsten Stewart (WINNER)
    2. Jennifer Hudson
    3. Renata Reinsve
    4. Emili Jones
    5. Rachelle Zegler

    Who could be nominated: Olivia Coleman, Jessy Chastain

    Longshots: Nichole Kidman, Lady GaGa

    Bold predictions!


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    #1204777055
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.

    ReginaIsKing
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    #1204777072

    There are too many trolls on this website.


    laslo
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    #1204777077

    Apparently Million Dollar Baby wasn’t released in time (or a screener issue, not sure) in the UK; which I supposed makes sense – the movie got zero nominations ar BAFTA

    Million Dollar Baby was released in time but had a screener issue, Independent UK made a whole article about it back then, saying:

    “British voters have snubbed what some are calling Eastwood’s masterpiece… There are 6,240 members of Bafta, all entitled to vote. Every year distributors send them “screeners” – DVDs of the hundreds of films in the running. There are also special showings of the films. Publicists wage a military-style campaign to ensure that their titles are seen by as many voters as possible. But there is one major hitch. The studios remain terrified of piracy. Some, therefore, refuse to send out screeners. It turns out that the real reason Million Dollar Baby (released in the UK today) has been snubbed is that hardly any voters had seen the film. No screeners were sent out, and the first showing of the film was held disastrously late, it’s a fair bet that around 90 per cent of the voters had not seen the movie.”.

    And that makes Hilary Swank the only precedent (this century) to a possible Oscar win without a BAFTA nomination. Not that suitable tho, since Being the Ricardos was nominated for 2 BAFTAs.


    Chocoesq
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    #1204777080

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Not that this is super relevant, but there are still clips of Gaga from HoG that get millions of views on tik tok this past week alone. The “can I ask you a question scene”, the “papers!?” scene, and “unnecessary detail” scene have amassed 4 million views in the past 4 days on one account alone. The only other performance which has any sort of current relevant impact is maybe Stewart and Haim. In a year where the votes are so up in the air, visibility is important.


    Faux architect
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    #1204777097

    Million Dollar Baby was released in time but had a screener issue, Independent UK made a whole article about it back then, saying: “British voters have snubbed what some are calling Eastwood’s masterpiece… There are 6,240 members of Bafta, all entitled to vote. Every year distributors send them “screeners” – DVDs of the hundreds of films in the running. There are also special showings of the films. Publicists wage a military-style campaign to ensure that their titles are seen by as many voters as possible. But there is one major hitch. The studios remain terrified of piracy. Some, therefore, refuse to send out screeners. It turns out that the real reason Million Dollar Baby (released in the UK today) has been snubbed is that hardly any voters had seen the film. No screeners were sent out, and the first showing of the film was held disastrously late, it’s a fair bet that around 90 per cent of the voters had not seen the movie.”. And that makes Hilary Swank the only precedent (this century) to a possible Oscar win without a BAFTA nomination. Not that suitable tho, since Being the Ricardos was nominated for 2 BAFTAs.

    Comparing stats before and after the process change is a bit hard though. The winner and the first stage top 2 matter since they’re chosen by popular vote. That’s why the BAFTA and Oscar winner are so correlated in the last few years. But in the future, there might be years when the popular vote of the acting branch could eliminate someone that would do well in a general popular vote. I don’t really believe that’s the case this year though. It would be very interesting to see BAFTA and Oscars numbers that show the standings after the nomination voting (acting branch only).

    Pantheon of acting: Uta / Elizabeth / Richard / Sandy (Virginia Woolf), Bibi / Liv (Persona), Sandrine (La Ceremonie), Brie (Short Term 12), Jodie (Silence of the Lambs), Jodie (Killing Eve), Nicole (The Others), Eva (Penny Dreadful), Timothée (CMBYN), Lupita (Us)

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