-
-
imdb for sag nominees:
lady gaga 6.8, 57k votes
olivia colman 6.7, 36k votes
jessica chastain 6.7, 11k votes
nicole kidman 6.6, 25k votes
jennifer hudson 6.6, 10k votes
I do think Alana will knock out one of them. Possibly sag will go 3/5.
Sag+Oscar last year: Carey 7.5, Frances 7.3, Vanessa 7.1. Viola 6.9 (Andra 6.3).
While there are certainly some within the Academy who might feel that House of Gucci is a shameless 2.5 hour commercial for the Gucci brand and the Gaga brand, after she picked up BAFTA, there’s virtually no chance she misses.
She got BFCA, HFPA, SAG, AACTA, and BAFTA.
IIRC, The only actress in recent memory that lost a nomination after nabbing all those was Marion Cotillard for Rust and Bone. A Gaga snub wouldn’t be unprecedented, but still extremely unlikely.
What is so bizarre on this “we have precedents of going all precursos and missing the Oscars” argument is that those snubs were from people #4-5 in predictions, in weak vehicles or not individual passion for their performance to get enough #1 votes (Amy Adams in Arrival).
Gaga was always considered the strongest part of her film, getting love regardless of attention for HoG. And she wasn’t like a filler nod at BAFTA, she was top 2 (if not #1), so enough individual love .
Pundits still considering her a possible snub on nomination morning can be nothing else but hopedicting at this point cause it’s not applicable to previous cases at all.
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.What I just realized is that a lot of these predictors and media sites that declared Gaga the frontrunner before Gucci even came out are backing off of her now that she has the strongest record of support among the industry. None of it makes any sense.
Tuesday is about to be a mess. I’m ready.
If Gaga misses after all the stuff going for her, it would be unprecedented. But stranger things have happened. I still say she’s in by a mile, but a Gaga snub would cause this site to shut down.
Tuesday is about to be a mess. I’m ready.
It’s the opposite, Oscar nominations will reposition things back to order after the BAFTA Grammy-like nominations.
When the legend is out, the best actress category is a mess and the most boring category of Oscar night.
If Gaga misses after all the stuff going for her, it would be unprecedented. But stranger things have happened. I still say she’s in by a mile, but a Gaga snub would cause this site to shut down.
I think a KStew snub would cause bigger meltdowns.
FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category
Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.A Gaga Snub can happen, Hello Amy Adams in Arrival! It would be the biggest shockery snub since Adams right?
Probably. That snub still hurts.
It’s the opposite, Oscar nominations will reposition things back to order after the BAFTA Grammy-like nominations.
BAFTA nominations were beautiful.
I think a KStew snub would cause bigger meltdowns.
It wouldn’t. Most are already anticipating a K Stew snub now that she missed SAG & BAFTA and lost the Globe. Gaga has made every precursor thus far, so missing the big one would cause massive meltdowns, especially if someone like K Stew actually makes the final five.
That was a very interesting case though. She carried an NBR into the season, hit all 4 major precursors plus AACTA, then missed. The film got BP and 8 nominations in total. The more striking thing is that the nomination date actually works well for her. Voting went from Jan.5 to Jan. 13. CC was held in Dec., GG was on Jan.8, and SAG & Bafta announced noms on Jan. 10. So during Oscar voting they already saw her hitting all 4 precursors. I’ve heard an explanation being like “they saw she got all 4 so she’s safe. There is no need to vote for her”. Then there is the fact that Portman won CC in late Dec., Stone and Hupert won GG before voting started, so that placed her to the 4th slot.
Amy Adams was no near Huppert or Stone neck to neck rivalry that year. She was a spot filler 100%.
When the legend is out, the best actress category is a mess and the most boring category of Oscar night.
That was a very interesting case though. She carried an NBR into the season, hit all 4 major precursors plus AACTA, then missed. The film got BP and 8 nominations in total. The more striking thing is that the nomination date actually works well for her. Voting went from Jan.5 to Jan. 13. CC was held in Dec., GG was on Jan.8, and SAG & Bafta announced noms on Jan. 10. So during Oscar voting they already saw her hitting all 4 precursors.
I’ve heard an explanation being like “they saw she got all 4 so she’s safe. There is no need to vote for her”. Then there is the fact that Portman won CC in late Dec., Stone and Hupert won GG before voting started, so that placed her to the 4th slot.
i just think she didn’t have enough #1 votes in the nomination round since her performance was not a priority that season, but more of a ballot filler. Then someone with more passion, Ruth Negga and Meryl, could get more top mentions than her which caused the nod.
Again, I don’t find applicable to Gaga since we know now she has a core of supporters that really value her.
The topic ‘Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 71)’ is closed to new replies.
