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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 71)

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  • P(oweR) Valley
    Joined:
    Sep 27th, 2011
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    #1204775706

    I think a KStew snub would cause bigger meltdowns.

    It wouldn’t. Most are already anticipating a K Stew snub now that she missed SAG & BAFTA and lost the Globe. Gaga has made every precursor thus far, so missing the big one would cause massive meltdowns, especially if someone like K Stew actually makes the final five.


    Cinema2050
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    #1204775710

    That was a very interesting case though. She carried an NBR into the season, hit all 4 major precursors plus AACTA, then missed. The film got BP and 8 nominations in total. The more striking thing is that the nomination date actually works well for her. Voting went from Jan.5 to Jan. 13. CC was held in Dec., GG was on Jan.8, and SAG & Bafta announced noms on Jan. 10. So during Oscar voting they already saw her hitting all 4 precursors. I’ve heard an explanation being like “they saw she got all 4 so she’s safe. There is no need to vote for her”. Then there is the fact that Portman won CC in late Dec., Stone and Hupert won GG before voting started, so that placed her to the 4th slot.

    Amy Adams was no near Huppert or Stone neck to neck rivalry that year. She was a spot filler 100%.

    When the legend is out, the best actress category is a mess and the most boring category of Oscar night.


    James Gibson
    Joined:
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    #1204775713

    That was a very interesting case though. She carried an NBR into the season, hit all 4 major precursors plus AACTA, then missed. The film got BP and 8 nominations in total. The more striking thing is that the nomination date actually works well for her. Voting went from Jan.5 to Jan. 13. CC was held in Dec., GG was on Jan.8, and SAG & Bafta announced noms on Jan. 10. So during Oscar voting they already saw her hitting all 4 precursors.

    I’ve heard an explanation being like “they saw she got all 4 so she’s safe. There is no need to vote for her”. Then there is the fact that Portman won CC in late Dec., Stone and Hupert won GG before voting started, so that placed her to the 4th slot.

    i just think she didn’t have enough #1 votes in the nomination round since her performance was not a priority that season, but more of a ballot filler. Then someone with more passion, Ruth Negga and Meryl, could get more top mentions than her which caused the nod.

    Again, I don’t find applicable to Gaga since we know now she has a core of supporters that really value her.


    Cinema2050
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    #1204775715

    Idk dawgs, I’m holding onto the Colman snub before the Gaga snub. Her film is absolutely abysmal and although gen pop doesn’t have a say in things, it certainly doesn’t bode well that her film is one of the least liked out of the contenders AND the fact that BAFTA said Nope to their Queen.

    It is acceptable, they can’t nominate Colman for every role she’s playing even if it is garbage like the Lost Doll. Her name alone should not be a determinant factor.

    When the legend is out, the best actress category is a mess and the most boring category of Oscar night.


    P(oweR) Valley
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    #1204775719

    Crazy thing is if Gaga somehow misses and Kristen Stewart makes the list, I think Stewart could take the Oscar away from Kidman. Stewart missing all of the precursors after being snubbed at SAG and BAFTA but making the Oscars final five would indicate a ton of support and it would be a huge question mark for all of those other award bodies that dropped her, almost like Regina King a few years ago.


    rue
    Joined:
    Oct 31st, 2019
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    #1204775725

    Idk dawgs, I’m holding onto the Colman snub before the Gaga snub. Her film is absolutely abysmal and although gen pop doesn’t have a say in things, it certainly doesn’t bode well that her film is one of the least liked out of the contenders AND the fact that BAFTA said Nope to their Queen. They chose supporting actress over their Queen. That has to stand for something.

    Colman’s movie is stronger than Chastain’s and will likely be nominated for Adapted Screenplay. Buckley getting in was great but clearly a jury choice and Olivia is too big a name for the jury now.

    Want Want by Maggie Rogers - Song of the Year, Record of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance, Best Music Video, Best Country Song, Best Melodic Rap Performance, Best Traditional R&B Performance, Best Country Solo Performance, Best Rap Solo Performance, Best Metal Performance, Best Rock Song, Best American Roots Performance


    UnionCityMood
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    #1204775727

    Again, I don’t find applicable to Gaga since we know now she has a core of supporters that really value her.

    Does the Bafta use preferential ballot too? Or do they choose their top 2 based on who get the most mentions?

    One thing that works for Gaga is that she’s the only contender to hit all 4 precursors. The year of AA there were 3 that hit all precursors, while Meryl missed CC Actress but won CC Comedy(so technically 4 actresses hit all 4). Also when voting began that year, they already got 3 precursor winners Hupert, Stone, and Portman. While this year we only had Nicole and Rachel as winners so far.


    Bonehead
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    Jan 20th, 2021
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    #1204775737

    As someone that prides themself on predicting the Amy Adams snub back in the day…

    I always thought her miss was a combination of genre-bias within the Academy plus the fact that she had another great lead performance that year in Nocturnal Animals, which was siphoning away Arrival votes.

    Gaga doesn’t have a Nocturnal Animals this year and House of Gucci isn’t a sci-fi.

    It’s not even a little indie French film either, like Rust and Bone was, so the Marion Cotillard snub wouldn’t apply either.


    P(oweR) Valley
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    #1204775742

    Wasn’t Amy mentioned as a Best Actress nominee that year, but the Oscars backtracked and said that it was actually Ruth Negga as the nominee, not Amy? That had to hurt.


    Babylonian
    Joined:
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    #1204775746

    The BAFTA nominations were so refreshing. I’m so glad Tessa Thompson and Emilia Jones finally got in somewhere. Weird how everyone was so against biopics and then BAFTA went 1/6 with the biopic performances and then it was a problem. I’m so glad I stuck by Gaga even though she was underestimated all season long just because her movie had mixed reviews that praised her performance. It’s also ironic how everyone harped about Gaga missing BAFTA and KStew being strong there only for the exact opposite to be true. 😂

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song


    Bonehead
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    #1204775759

    Wasn’t Amy mentioned as a Best Actress nominee that year, but the Oscars backtracked and said that it was actually Ruth Negga as the nominee, not Amy? That had to hurt.

    lol, not to my memory

    I watched the nominees as they were announced that morning.

    Ruth Negga was announced as normal.

    I remember because within the hour of Negga’s nomination for playing Mildred Loving, there were “Black Wives Matter” posters making the social media rounds.


    Babylonian
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    #1204775762

    Crazy thing is if Gaga somehow misses and Kristen Stewart makes the list, I think Stewart could take the Oscar away from Kidman. Stewart missing all of the precursors after being snubbed at SAG and BAFTA but making the Oscars final five would indicate a ton of support and it would be a huge question mark for all of those other award bodies that dropped her, almost like Regina King a few years ago.

    If Stewart got into Best Actress she’d still be below Kidman and Colman.

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song


    James Gibson
    Joined:
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    #1204775765

    Wasn’t Amy mentioned as a Best Actress nominee that year, but the Oscars backtracked and said that it was actually Ruth Negga as the nominee, not Amy? That had to hurt.

    The official livestream was right but the Oscars website put her wrong for some few seconds or minutes. But we had Negga over Amy first.


    UnionCityMood
    Joined:
    Jan 8th, 2022
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    #1204775774

    Weird how everyone was so against biopics and then BAFTA went 1/6 with the biopic performances and then it was a problem.

    I know right? Very interesting. A lot people have been crying the whole season about how basic and bored these mediocre biopics are taking the spots. Then Bafta came and served Tessa, Emilia, Renate justice. Suddenly they got pissed by the nomination list. Some even said it’s time to move on to next year’s race. Wondering why.


    momo-memo
    Joined:
    Feb 3rd, 2022
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    #1204775776

    The nomination this year and last year are different. Last year it is purely jury decision. This year it is the top 2 from the voting and 4 nominees from the jury. Gaga is very likely top 2 in the BAFTA member voting while her major Oscar rivals are not in the top 2.

    im confused….then why we need the winner coz “let say” Gaga already the number one voter choice ??

    Best Actor : Colin Farrell, Brendan Fraser, Austin Butler, Bill Nighy

    Best Actress : Michelle Yeoh, Ana de Armas, Cate Blanchett , Andrea Riseborough, Danielle Deadwyler

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