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February 6, 2022 at 1:48 pm #1204780310
I honesty believe BAFTA will make/break the Oscar race for Gaga. Voting period will start 5 days after BAFTAs, its in Gaga best interest if she is plastered all over social media with that trophy in her hand. If she loses, a recent loss won’t be good for her heading into voting period. BAFTA is absolute for Gaga, regardless of how she or anyone else does at SAG
Gaga is win competitive no matter what happens. BAFTA will absolutely boost her to the top of the win competitive field, but either way it’s Gaga, Nicole, and someone else.February 6, 2022 at 1:54 pm #1204780328
The most important thing rn is the Oscar nom, from there we can see how big the passion is for BTR/HOG, specifically BP spot, Javier Bardem, Alana Haim and Jared Leto. From there we can see who the real frontrunner is.February 6, 2022 at 2:04 pm #1204780349
OGHs were hoping for Gaga fans to get abducted by homophobes, but you guys were silent. Funny how honest predictions cause you to flee.
Lol. I miss that dude who said he wishes the rest of us get hit and abducted by homophobes like I was in December. He thought it got to me, but his comment made me LOL. It was so funny. I don’t think issues here personal, but some people do. It’s sad. People should learn to have fun and move on
Danielle Deadwyler gave the performance of the year.
I remain Lady Gaga's BIGGEST FANFebruary 6, 2022 at 2:04 pm #1204780351
I think the Bafta is between Alana Haim and Lady Gaga. I haven’t seen The Worst Person in the World but I don’t think they will favor any European contender after Brexit. It would have made much more sense to me if they nominated Olivia Colman.
I can understand the Nicole snub because Lucille Ball is widely unknown outside the US.February 6, 2022 at 2:08 pm #1204780358This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.February 6, 2022 at 2:11 pm #1204780364
I’m delusional, and I will keep Thompson in as an Oscar nominee.🙂February 6, 2022 at 2:13 pm #1204780368This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.February 6, 2022 at 2:15 pm #1204780374
Lol. I miss that dude who said he wishes the rest of us get hit and abducted by homophobes like I was in this December. He thought it got to me, but his comment made me LOL. It was so funny. I don’t think issues here personal, but some people do. It’s sad. People should learn to have fun and move on
Who said that?February 6, 2022 at 2:18 pm #1204780383
FINAL BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS with Commentary
1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
2. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
4. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
5. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
alt. Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Hudson, Rachel Zegler, Kristen Stewart, Reinate Rensve, Tessa Thompson
Big crowd this year, and I think by this point we are all just waiting for those Tuesday announcements. This is an exciting year for acting nominees!
Where to start? Well Golden Globe (Drama) winner Kidman seems locked to go, though her BAFTA miss stings big time. Not sure whether this means it’s JUST because across the pond they don’t care about Lucy, or that voters didn’t care about Kidman’s performance. They certainly cared about Aaron Sorkin, as he DID get a screenplay nomination from BAFTA, as did the score. Now I believe voting is different for those categories, but I could be wrong. Still, in terms of a nomination- she’s really due for her 5th nod (can you believe the body of work she’s done, and only 4 technical nominations as of now). She’s focused in the performance- its not perfect, but it’s certainly full of relish and rehearsed well.
Gaga is easily next, and stats aside – I really really loved her performance in House of Gucci. Again the Russian accent sounded fine to me (I don’t speak Russian fluently, and I don’t believe the bulk of Oscar voters do either) but regardless of the few critics against it- does it matter? Helen Hunt went in and out of her Brooklyn accent in As Good As It Gets, and still won the gold. Gaga’s character is intense, lush and beautiful. I loved every minute of it and I think she would be a very worthy winner.
I think Colman is third, but part of my brain thinks she could possibly miss all together- and they just go with the screenplay. But because the BAFTA hurdle wasn’t thrown at us until after Oscar voting polls closed, I say Colman does make it- and it’s a rich, disturbing performance that is also very sympathetic (she’s a complicated character; for those who have not seen The Lost Daughter, I won’t spoil it).
I am going to say Cruz is next. Despite misses from the industry bandits, she won LA and NSFC plus like Marion Cotillard in 2 Days, 1 Night- has that assertive passion buzz that often gets these foreign language performances nominated. Again, think of our Roma gals recently- and if you go back further, you will notice in Best Actress especially, a foreign language role often is cited. And Cruz is an Oscar favorite already, winner for Vicky Cristina Barcelona, and nominated for another foreign language role (Volver). And cited for the disappointing Nine musical, which to me says a lot about how much she is beloved.
Last slot – I am going to drop Chastain (risky) for Alana Haim. A few reasons. No one seems to be that passionate about Chastain’s film at all, even though her and Andrew Garfield are quite strong as the religious celebrities making a name (and bankruptcy) for themselves. Chastain is excellent, and I think her performance outranks Haim in terms of technical brilliance. But Haim has a movie that everyone’s talking about, and after the big nods at BAFTA, it seems she’s solidified herself like Gaga, as a multi-talented artist- who can sing and perform, was nominated for a Golden Globe and won the Breakthrough at NBR. She only missed SAG, and SAG doesn’t lineup usually 5/5 in acting. I think voters are gonna go nuts for Anderson’s film, and if we’re going to have any actress in a best pic nominee, Haim has the best shot since I don’t think Being the Ricardo’s is going to make the top 10 (could be wrong).
I still feel so bad for Rachel Zegler. I don’t get why she is being thrown to the sidelines while her costar gets all the accolades. Much like the 1961 film, when Natalie Wood also couldn’t get nominated. But Zegler at least does her own singing. What happened? Is the National Board of Review the kiss of death? How did she manage to defeat Haim at the Globes? And West Side Story is a bigger movie then Licorice Pizza, albeit I think the latter is rising in popularity. I think she could still surprise.
Jennifer Hudson shouldn’t be ruled out – even though she just has a SAG nomination. I didn’t find her performance that amazing, and I think she has a shot to be nominated for Best Song.
Kristen Stewart- it’s just too bad. I really liked her; I admit the whispering got a little old, but she certainly deserves more accolades then the shut outs she’s been receiving instead. I thought she was quite fluent as Diana, and if the movie had a different name (Spencer makes anyone browsing on Prime not click) and better campaign, she would easily be getting in. But word on the movie street is voters are walking out of screenings. Not a good sign. And it is a slow film, but she’s so good. I would love her to surprise. Regardless of how awkward she may be in interviews, she is still an actor and I think she did a wonderful job. She will always have her Drama Globe nod no matter what.
Reinate and Thompson score BAFTA nods, and should not be ruled out. It’s possible our former gal gets the coveted Foreign slot, and Thompson comes in along with Negga since both did such a great job.
2021 was a great year for women, and I wish everyone the best of luck Tuesday!
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FYC: Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie/Banshees of Inisherin in all CategoriesFebruary 6, 2022 at 2:35 pm #1204780438
Since Alana is looking at a possible nod this is a PSA to check out Women In Music Pt. III, one of the best albums of the 2020’s so far for sure.
Want Want by Maggie Rogers - Song of the Year, Record of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance, Best Music Video, Best Country Song, Best Melodic Rap Performance, Best Traditional R&B Performance, Best Country Solo Performance, Best Rap Solo Performance, Best Metal Performance, Best Rock Song, Best American Roots PerformanceFebruary 6, 2022 at 2:45 pm #1204780456
Interesting fact about the SAG/BAFTA combo:
Since 2010, there have been 14 ladies who made Actress at the Oscars after a snub at SAG. Of that group, 8 were not in eventual Picture nominees, in fact they were almost all the sole nominations from their films: Andra Day, Isabelle Huppert, Ruth Negga, Jennifer Lawrence, Charlotte Rampling, Marion Cotillard, Rooney Mara (the exception to the sole nominee rule), and Michelle Williams.
The interesting part is that NONE of these women made BAFTA, even before the jury setup. Granted, the jury does seem to throw this thread a bit out of whack, but there definitely seems to be a correlation between a SAG snub and a BAFTA snub if you’re not from a big overall contender.
Most of those names made both GG and CC (Rampling missed GG but made CC, and Mara vice versa). It appeared that they lost steam through the season, but they still pulled through at the end.
All this to say, I think Kristen can (and will) still pull through to become the ninth woman on this list.
FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)February 6, 2022 at 2:49 pm #1204780466This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.Not now
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