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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 77)

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    Fitzgerald
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    #1204800852

    Chastain got this.

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    M
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    Sep 27th, 2017
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    #1204800880

    Imagine if Renate got nominated and she got a superbowl ad for herself. I really don’t understand Neon’s strategy regarding this film. It’s like they only starting promoting it heavily when the Oscar voting ended.

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    krisden25
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    The Northman
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    #1204800989

    Precursors overlap with Oscars

    Globes Drama 4/5
    Critics Choice 4/6
    SAG 3/5
    BAFTAs 0/6

    The Globes remain an influencer whether we like it or not. 5/6 of the Acting Globes winners were nominated for an Oscar this year.

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    forwardswill
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    #1204800991

    I’m predicting Kidman. But my one real qualm with doing this is her critics performance. Every single Oscar winner in the last decade has been in the top 5 for critics wins/nominations in their respective category. Kidman isn’t even in the top 6. I remember raising this as a concern with Glenn Close who was 6th before her precursor run. I went on to ignore myself because it seemed like she was clearing. But then look what happened.

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    Fitzgerald
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    Jan 21st, 2015
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    #1204800999

    If you want a second or third or fourth lead Oscar, your movie should better be competitive in Best Picture race. Only exception were Meryl Streep and Ingrid Bergman.

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    VictorVincent
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    Feb 10th, 2022
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    #1204801021

    Finally, it’s Nicole Kidman’s year – destroyed others and won the Globe, now frontrunner status baby!

    the HFPA loves Nicole Kidman. The former president even wrote in his autobiography that they gave her a Supporting nom. for Billy Bathgate in 1991 because she did all the HFPA interviews and that they didn’t nominate Dustin Hoffman in Lead because he didn’t (do the interviews).

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    ejaru1810
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    #1204801023

    I’m predicting Kidman. But my one real qualm with doing this is her critics performance. Every single Oscar winner in the last decade has been in the top 5 for critics wins/nominations in their respective category. Kidman isn’t even in the top 6. I remember raising this as a concern with Glenn Close who was 6th before her precursor run. I went on to ignore myself because it seemed like she was clearing. But then look what happened.

    The best thing that happened to Kidman was that the other contenders aren’t in Best Picture nominees and their films are weaker, Ricardos overperformed with Actors while Penelope has no precursors noms, Kristen is the only Spencer nomination and CC seems to be the only place she’ll win, Jessica could built momentum with SAG but Nicole is still the frontrunner there, and Olivia looks stronger than the previous three due to Supporting Actress and Screenplay noms.

    On paper Nicole is the frontrunner with Olivia as a runner up, let’s see where the season goes.

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    m_butterfly
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    #1204801031

    I think Olivia is stronger than you guys give her credit for. TLD has a screenplay nom which shows more appeal/respect outside just the actors branch, and Maggie also got nominated for the DGA first feature. And I’d argue getting Jessie Buckley in was way harder than getting two previous winners like Bardem (I don’t think he got in on Nicole’s strength alone btw, he has GG and SAG too) and J.K. Simmons (he had CC).

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    Monet Tejada
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    #1204801035

    Precursors overlap with Oscars

    Globes Drama 4/5
    Critics Choice 4/6
    SAG 3/5
    BAFTAs 0/6

    The Globes remain an influencer whether we like it or not. 5/6 of the Acting Globes winners were nominated for an Oscar this year.

    With nominations, sure. The wins could be different, just like last year.

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    borisy
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    May 29th, 2020
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    #1204801132

    Knowing this weird year, will we have first winner without a sag win or a winner that hasn’t been nominated in any precursors? Or one without any critics wins? Lol so messy

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    Anthony 🐜
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    #1204801159

    Jessica Chastain

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    CarlosEdu
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    Jan 16th, 2019
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    #1204801179

    If you want a second or third or fourth lead Oscar, your movie should better be competitive in Best Picture race. Only exception were Meryl Streep and Ingrid Bergman.

    Exactly, it’s the reason cuz I’m doubting a little about a second win for Nicole or Olivia but both are strong to win.

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    SN
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    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204801182

    Kidman is a very weak frontrunner. Even if she wins SAG I still think she could lose.

    As others said, having practically no critics wins and not having that much passion doesn’t body well for a second leading win.

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    KidmanFTW
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    #1204801188

    If you want a second or third or fourth lead Oscar, your movie should better be competitive in Best Picture race. Only exception were Meryl Streep and Ingrid Bergman.

    Is this argument relevant when 3/5 of our nominees are previous winners?

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