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Via RollingStone
Who Will Win
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
The irony is as thick as the mascara in Michael Showalter’s biopic on former-televangelist-slash-disgraced-wife-slash-LGBTQ-icon Tammy Faye Baker, but the performance by Chastain — from spiritually hungry young woman to fallen angel — couldn’t be more sincere. It’s provides a faint heartbeat amid the sound and fury here, and while it’s tempting to to focus on the metric ton of prosthetics being applied to her mug during Ms. Baker’s later-years edition, remember: Chastain still has to act underneath all that goop. Which she does. Wonderfully, even if the film itself is lacking. As with CODA and Smith, the SAG awards helped build momentum behind her Faye take, and considering the overlap between those two voting bodies, Chastain may be praising more than just the Lord come Sunday.Who Should Win
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Talk about a performance that both impresses and wallops you upon a first viewing, and adds a whole other level of depth and tragedy to the narrative after a second watch! Cruz has long done her most outstanding work with Spanish auteur extraordinaire Pedro Almodovar — the first of her four Oscar nominations to date was for his 2007 movie Volver, and she should have been nominated in 2009 for his masterpiece Pain and Glory — and what she’s doing in this tale of two matriarchs (and a country finally able to grieve its lost children) deserves recognition. Specifically, the gold, baldheaded and engraved kind.RS might be more convincing if they could at least spell a name correctly.
The Sunne in Splendour.
I prefer my roses whiteRS might be more convincing if they could at least spell a name correctly.
Lol they even said Pain and Glory is from 2009
If you’re predicting CODA to win Best Picture, I think that you have to consider Cruz as a possibility to win too, many stats will be break this year so it’s not impossible that she could break along with CODA.
You’re right but it seems a bit unlikely to have two such major upsets in the same ceremony. Just a hinge. I think the big upset of the night is only gonna be CODA winning BP. A lot of people are still in denial about CODA’s recent surge.
You’re right but it seems a bit unlikely to have two such major upsets in the same ceremony. Just a hinge. I think the big upset of the night is only gonna be CODA winning BP. A lot of people are still in denial about CODA’s recent surge.
There’s too much whining and bitching and lamenting and hand-wringing for the majority to be in denial.
I suppose that’s the consolation prize.
Imagine the chaos once the winners are actually announced.The Sunne in Splendour.
I prefer my roses whiteIf you’re predicting CODA to win Best Picture, I think that you have to consider Cruz as a possibility to win too, many stats will be break this year so it’s not impossible that she could break along with CODA.
I think it’s been fairly clear that with the long gap between the nominations voting/announcement and the winners, there are a lot of movies that peaked after the nominations process that people caught up with after the fact and will vote accordingly from there in this new phase, so what got what precursors or other nominations feels way less relevant at this point.
BAFTA’s a good example, where they were doing their longlist voting WAY earlier in the season and CODA wasn’t nominated for Best Film nor Cruz even shortlisted in Actress, but enough BAFTA voters caught up with CODA after the fact to give it their Screenplay win over their Film winner and you can argue the same can happen for Cruz (I say “can” because there weren’t as many other opportunities for her to go head-to-head against her competitors in major awards bodies who didn’t see her buzz coming). But Parallel Mothers was released to solid arthouse business after the nominations and good audience ratings in addition to critics calling it peak Almodóvar, a career high for Cruz, and giving her 2/3 of the trifecta critics wins.
Also worth mentioning once again just how late Parallel Mothers released in the UK. It came out at the end of January (almost a full month after BAFTA long-list voting concluded) with no festival presence in the UK (it didn’t go to LFF) and Cruz wasn’t really in the conversation like say Hudson was at the time for voters to actively seek out the film.
Since its release over here it has become the highest grossing film not in the English language since Parasite. Had BAFTA long-list voting taken place later in the season, Cruz probably would have been long-listed.
FYC:
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")
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