Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 86)

[Manav Joined: Dec 21st, 2019 Topics: 51 Posts: 5447 View Predictions]

#1204893955

jessica chastain oscar win has her spiraling pic.twitter.com/jK9OSbRydq

— jay (@xternaIs) April 1, 2022

Emmy FYC
-Severance in all categories.
-Ted Lasso in all categories.
-The Dropout in all categories.

-Jennifer Coolidge, Connie Britton, Margaret Qualley, Colin Firth
-Jung Ho-Yeon, Lee Yoo-Mi, Sarah Snook, Laura Linney.
-Jean Smart, Kaley Cuoco, Juno Temple, Sarah Lancashire and Martin Short.

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[Jackr123 Joined: Nov 11th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 66 View Predictions]

#1204894005

Manav wrote:

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=true&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NrZWxldG9uX2xvYWRpbmdfMTMzOTgiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiY3RhIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19zcGFjZV9jYXJkIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9mZiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0Zndfc2Vuc2l0aXZlX21lZGlhX2ludGVyc3RpdGlhbF8xMzk2MyI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJjb250cm9sIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6NH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1509995243537457152&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.goldderby.com%2Fforum%2Fmovies%2Foscars-2022-predictions-best-actress-part-86%2F&sessionId=55571dc560498942beebd0678492de8372898ee2&siteScreenName=GoldDerby&theme=light&widgetsVersion=f9f80a909a60b%3A1648751432723&width=550px

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

She didn’t include Jessica in the thumbnail for her Oscar video, despite having the other three winners 😅

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[Scott Marnie Joined: Dec 4th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 14 View Predictions]

#1204897771

I posted this on December 26, 2021:

Since 2001, the actresses who won the Oscar and from one of the big three (LA, NY, NSFC) are:

Theron, Monster (NSFC)
Swank, Million Dollar Baby (NSFC)
Witherspoon, Walk the Line (NYFCC, NSFC)
Mirren, The Queen (LAFCA, NYFCC, NSFC)
Cotillard, La Vie en Rose (LAFCA)
Streep, The Iron Lady (NYFCC)
Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook (LAFCA)
Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (LAFCA, NYFCC, NSFC)
Colman, The Favourite (LAFCA, NSFC)
McDormand, Nomadland (NSFC)

Those who won the actress prize from one of the main festivals (Cannes, Berlin, Venice):

Berry, Monster’s Ball (Berlin)
Kidman, The Hours (Berlin — shared award with principal cast members)
Theron, Monster (Berlin)
Mirren, The Queen (Venice)
Stone, La La Land (Venice)
Colman, The Favourite (Venice)

So, out of the last twenty winners, thirteen (59%) won from either one of the major groups or at a major film festival.

The leftovers:

Winslet (Reader)
Bullock (The Blind Side)
Portman (Black Swan)
Moore (Still Alice)
Larson (Room)
McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Zellweger (Judy)

Only Judy and Still Alice were not Best Picture nominees. The only actresses who were in BP nominees whom Zellweger faced were Ronan and Johansson, who did not win anything major for Little Women or Marriage Story, respectively. Moore, again, only faced one actress in a BP nominee — Jones, who, again, did not win anything major for The Theory of Everything.

This year:

Venice: Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Berlin: Maren Eggert, I’m Your Man
Cannes: Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
LAFCA: Cruz, Parallel Mothers
NYFCC: Gaga, House of Gucci
NSFC: TBD

For an actress to win without receiving a major award or being in a BP nominee, history suggests she needs to face competition who are neither in BP nominees or, if the person is in a BP nominee, it needs to be someone who has not won anything major.

Chastain’s win continues the pattern here.

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