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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress

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    DaKardii
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    #1204362336

    JULY 2021 PREDICTIONS (The Film Drunk)

    1. Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
    2. Ana de Armas (Blonde)
    3. Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley)
    4. Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)
    5. Jennifer Hudson (Respect)
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    DaKardii
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    #1204362346

    I have Kidman winning for Being the Ricardos since she’s so overdue for a second Oscar as she should be and playing Lucille Ball is baity and transformative. I’m getting Cate Blanchett playing Katherine Hepburn victory vibes all over again. But at the same time I’m rooting for her to lose only because I’d rather not her second Oscar be for some average Aaorn Sorkin biopic when she’s capable of producing much more nuanced performances in the likes of Eyes Wide Shut, Dogville, Rabbit Hole, Destroyer, and of course<i> Big Little Lies. </i>

    It took eleven to twelve months for Chicago 7 to be filmed, edited, and released. BtR started filming in April, so unless its production is being rushed it’s much more likely to come out in 2022 than in 2021.

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    DaKardii
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    #1204362350

    If Frances McDormand is nominated in lead for The Tragedy of Macbeth, she’s winning. Period. And if she’s nominated in supporting, she’s NOT winning. Period.

    Look at her nominations history. Every time she was nominated in lead, she won. Every time she was nominated in supporting, someone else won. I see a pattern there.

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    #1204362395
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    Melvinezq
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    #1204362408

    Now I predict:

    1. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
    2. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
    3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
    4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
    5. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    I was an adamant believer of Chastain’s dominance for quite some time, but this lineup is immensely competitive, and I just cannot put the second Searchlight lady to fill it. Cate is going to do some witchery with that role, and the whole film itself is the one with the strongest support from the studio (that second-tier Wes Anderson could never). Jodie is the hot debutante with a film that premise is so interesting, and while I’m not as confident predicting her as I am to the other actors, I just find her stardom rising so elegantly. Kirsten, see Cate, but add an overdue to nomination factor. Jennifer has the best bait of them all, and the early talks have been so great. Lastly, Frances, there is nothing can be said about her. I am going to listen to her ‘unsex me here’ in a daily basis (if there is any which will be her Oscar tape).

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    Kaguya-hime
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    #1204362461

    If Frances McDormand is nominated in lead for The Tragedy of Macbeth, she’s winning. Period. And if she’s nominated in supporting, she’s NOT winning. Period. Look at her nominations history. Every time she was nominated in lead, she won. Every time she was nominated in supporting, someone else won. I see a pattern there.

    This is a joke, right?

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1204362465

    Tammy Faye really is not that well known lol but I am even more surprised by the Ana de Armas predictions. The film has been said to be very weird, inaccessible and mostly wordless.

    This. This biopic was the first time I have heard of her and I’m sure it’s the same for a lot of people since the 80s. You’re in delusion to believe otherwise. And Blonde reeks of inaccessibility (supposed close-ups of vaginas and period blood, and barely any dialogue). If Ana happens, it’s because of her performance, not because of the bait of the film/role because the film’s said “bait” seems a bit on both the extreme and the nonexistent side if that makes sense.

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    Rachel615
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    #1204362479

    This. This biopic was the first time I have heard of her and I’m sure it’s the same for a lot of people since the 80s.

    While the pool of Oscar voters is getting younger as more and more “old farts” die off and new members are appointed, nonetheless I strongly suspect that given the age of most current Oscar voters, that Tammy Faye is someone most of them have heard of.

    My sense is that the average age of Gold Derby posters is significantly younger than the average age of most AMPAS members….

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    wolfali
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    #1204362566

    Being the Ricardos has potential flop written all over it. Grace of Monaco 2.0

    This comparison makes no sense lol. Being the Ricardos has been written by Academy Award winner and perennial nominee Aaron Sorkin. Grace of Monaco was written by Arash Amel.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    Music Forever
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    #1204362781

    The comparison makes perfect sense. Grace of Monaco was touted as a major biopic for Kidman and ended up flopping. Being the Ricardos could do the same. Duh.

    You’re just bitter about getting called out earlier 😉 Poor baby.

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    Scott Marnie
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    #1204362835

    The last time this category went to three previous winners (regardless of category) in a row was the Taylor/Hepburn/Hepburn+Streisand “quadfecta,” and even that has an asterisk because of the tie. Statistically, I am thinking the next winner is most likely someone who is Oscarless.

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    Music Forever
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    #1204362851

    I am thinking the next winner is most likely someone who is Oscarless.

    Chastain
    Comer
    De Armas
    Dunst
    Gaga (if you discount her Original Song win)

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    wolfali
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    #1204362855

    The comparison makes perfect sense. Grace of Monaco was touted as a major biopic for Kidman and ended up flopping. Being the Ricardos could do the same. Duh.

    Aaron Sorkin’s worst received film = 57% RT score

    Arash Amel’s non GoM worst received film = 28% RT score (Grace of Monaco has a 9% RT score)

    Case closed. Just because Kidman is in it, it doesn’t mean it’s going to flop lmao.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    ReddWhite
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    #1204362860

    End of July predictions:

    *- could go supporting

    1. Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth*

    2. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    3. Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley*

    4. Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    5. Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    6. Jodie Comer – The Last Duel*

    7. Ana de Armas – Blonde

    8. Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    9. Margot Robbie – Canterbury Glass*

    10. Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Emmys FYC: Jean Smart.

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