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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 10)

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    Milagros Conzoni
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    #1204469458

    Belfast;

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204469460

    Belfast is the most likely winner of both awards, followed by The Power of the Dog and House of Gucci. West Side Story and Don’t Look Up seem like locks, with Licorice Pizza and Nightmare Alley strong possibilities. CODA and Respect are two films that I think might make it in to the lineup as well.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the director’s branch nominated Pedro Almodovar – in recent years at least one foreign language film has been nominated – but I think the more likely nominees are Kenneth Branagh, Jane Campion, Ridley Scott and Steven Spielberg, with Denis Villeneuve a strong potential nominee as well, maybe Guillermo del Toro but I don’t see him as a lock.

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    lorelei lor
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    #1204469522

    Out of everything that has released so far, I think King Richard is winning. I can see it getting lots of 1,2 and 3 on the preferential ballot, as well as getting 2 acting awards and screenplay. I also think it’s going to get that editing nomination.

    I think it will be a low tier nominee. Outside of Smith I don’t know what else it could win.

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    crabbie
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    #1204469524

    Out of everything that has released so far, I think King Richard is winning. I can see it getting lots of 1,2 and 3 on the preferential ballot, as well as getting 2 acting awards and screenplay. I also think it’s going to get that editing nomination.

    I highly doubt King Richard is winning Original Screenplay which is what it would need to win Best Picture. Voters are more likely to gravitate to Belfast in Original Screenplay as they did with Jojo Rabbit in Adapted.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Marcus.H
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    #1204469529

    Watched Dune earlier and my favorite thing is the worm  🙂

    Ok but seriously, Dune is as great as Blade Runner 2049 (still prefer the latter tho) and those screenplay issues critic mentioned are not that a big deal actually. I had a great time watching this visual masterwork and I need to put Villeneuve back into BD prediction. As for the award prospects, I’ll say screenplay and acting categories are definitely not happening, but BP & BD are still possible. Villeneuve deserves a nom. What’s worrying me is that Dune’s aftertaste might not be strong for Oscars voters since its themes make it feel more like a typical sci-fi adventure film, unlike Gravity or Arrival.

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    Stank83
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    #1204469578

    1. The Power of The Dog
    2. Belfast
    3. Don’t Look Up
    4. Licorice Pizza
    5. Dune
    6. King Richard
    7. The Tragedy of Macbeth
    8. The Humans
    9. West Side Story
    10.Spencer

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    Stefania
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    #1204469602

    Watched Dune earlier and my favorite thing is the worm 🙂 Ok but seriously, Dune is as great as Blade Runner 2049 (still prefer the latter tho) and those screenplay issues critic mentioned are not that a big deal actually. I had a great time watching this visual masterwork and I need to put Villeneuve back into BD prediction. As for the award prospects, I’ll say screenplay and acting categories are definitely not happening, but BP & BD are still possible. Villeneuve deserves a nom. What’s worrying me is that Dune’s aftertaste might not be strong for Oscars voters since its themes make it feel more like a typical sci-fi adventure film, unlike Gravity or Arrival.

    Are the themes of colonialism and environmentalism not prominent enough?

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    gorman
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    #1204469622

    Picture

    1. The Power of the Dog

    2. Belfast

    3. Nightmare Alley

    4. Licorice Pizza

    5. Don’t Look Up

    6. King Richard

    7. Dune

    8. The Hand of God

    9. The Tragedy of Macbeth

    10. House of Gucci

    Director

    1. Paul Thomas Anderson

    2. Jane Campion

    3. Guillermo Del Toro

    4. Kenneth Branagh

    5. Paolo Sorrentino

    BP I’m really unsure on below King Richard. Still feels like about a dozen films could get in there. I think Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza and Don’t Look Up can make noise and disturb the TPOTD v Belfast race that is taking shape at this point. Of the films that have premiered, they’re the only two I can see winning Picture. I’m still not fully on board with King Richard outside of Smith, it’s only in 6th for a lack of options really.

    Director I’m a little more sure of, but still there are half a dozen names I could see taking some of the slots. I’m hedging my bets on a race between PTA and Campion there. I think PTA will take Director whilst Campion and Branagh take the Screenplay prizes.

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    Marcus.H
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    #1204469637

    Are the themes of colonialism and environmentalism not prominent enough?

    I remember you’re gonna watch it tomorrow, right? I’ll let you have your own opinion then 🙂

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    Richie Rich
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    #1204469844

    I’d argue that both Cold War and Another Round would’ve been nominated for BP under a 10-nominee ballot.

    If Beale Street Could Talk, Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Mary Poppins Returns would have battled it out for the remaining slots if there were 10 nominees the year of Cold War.

    One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and News of the World would have battled it out for the remaining slots if there were 10 nominees the year of Another Round.

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    Richie Rich
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    #1204469857

    THE. TRAGEDY. OF. MACBETH. AND. HOUSE. OF. GUCCI. ARE. NOT. HAPPENING.

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    Alessandro Leri
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    #1204469889

    Sadly I’m sure Nightmare Alley won’t be nominated at the next Academy Awards.

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    Richie Rich
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    #1204469900

    Dune looks to be over performing in the European markets it released in over the weekend.

    ‘Dune’ Reaps A Heap With $37M From Early Offshore Debut; ‘Shang-Chi’ Tops $320M WW – International Box Office


    https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/dune-earns-36-m-overseas-debut-1235016124/

     

    When I tell you that I literally predicted that Dune would make $7.6 million in Russia, I’m not joking. I literally don’t have a life other than making movie predictions.

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    Alessandro Leri
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    #1204469917

    I see Don’t Look up getting picture, director and screenplay nominations while Nightmare Alley only cinematography and maybe design. I think it will be too weird to get nominated for picture. Why are you predicting Del Toro in while McKay out?

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    Bassett
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    #1204469919

    People are confident in Del Toro’s movie because his last one got 13 noms and won BP. It also won despite being “weird” too

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