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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 10)

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    Marcus.H
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    Oct 21st, 2017
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    #1204473145

    Titane will get nominated across the board. Belflop won’t even get in

    Based on?? You?

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    Jacob "Oscar Boy" Boe
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    #1204473460

    Another Round was most definitely ahead of all 3.

    No.

    I dunno what about getting a director nom has people so sure that it and Cold War were close for BP, but they just weren’t. They’re both foreign language films without a single precursor nomination. There is no way they were top 10. The directors branch is less than 600 people in the almost 10,000-strong AMPAS. So getting a nomination from them isn’t evidence enough of widespread admiration resulting in a BP nom.

    The contenders for the last spot from 2018 was between CRA, AQP, CYEFM, MPR, and First Man (IBSCT was obviously ninth).

    The contenders for the last spot last year was a three-way race between MRBB, ONIM, and BSM.

    Oscars FYC:

    Visual Effects: Free Guy

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204473481

    The Lost Daughter is coming for a nomination in Picture.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Butz
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    #1204473653

    No. I dunno what about getting a director nom has people so sure that it and Cold War were close for BP, but they just weren’t. They’re both foreign language films without a single precursor nomination. There is no way they were top 10. The directors branch is less than 600 people in the almost 10,000-strong AMPAS. So getting a nomination from them isn’t evidence enough of widespread admiration resulting in a BP nom. The contenders for the last spot from 2018 was between CRA, AQP, CYEFM, MPR, and First Man (IBSCT was obviously ninth). The contenders for the last spot last year was a three-way race between MRBB, ONIM, and BSM.

    Yeah no, Cold War was definitely in front of Crazy Rich Asians with a whooping 0 nominations and A Quiet Place’s one in Sound Editing. It was also obviously in front of Mary Poppins’ underperformance. If MPR didn’t get Blunt in, it was never getting into Picture. As much as I didn’t like Cold War, the only one of those movies that would have actually given it a hard time was Can You Ever Forgive Me.

    And sorry but imho the Oscar results for ONIM and MRBB showed that not a single soul in the Academy cared for these movies any more than the bare minimum. The Director nomination for Vinterberg showed something none of those films had: actual passion.

    FYC - Oscars 2022:
    NINE DAYS in all categories, including:
    - Best Picture
    - Best Director
    - Best Original Screenplay
    - Best Actor (Winston Duke)
    - Best Supporting Actress (Zazie Beetz)
    - Best Supporting Actor (Benedict Wong)

    RIDERS OF JUSTICE:
    - Best Picture
    - Best Original Screenplay
    - Best Actor (Mads Mikkelsen)
    - Best Supporting Actor (Nicolas Bro)
    - Best International Feature

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    Jacob "Oscar Boy" Boe
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    #1204473679

    Yeah no, Cold War was definitely in front of Crazy Rich Asians with a whooping 0 nominations and A Quiet Place’s one in Sound Editing. It was also obviously in front of Mary Poppins’ underperformance. If MPR didn’t get Blunt in, it was never getting into Picture. As much as I didn’t like Cold War, the only one of those movies that would have actually given it a hard time was Can You Ever Forgive Me. And sorry but imho the Oscar results for ONIM and MRBB showed that not a single soul in the Academy cared for these movies any more than the bare minimum. The Director nomination for Vinterberg showed something none of those films had: actual passion.

    I can accept the CRA and AQP stances, but then still, First Man would’ve been over Cold War.

    And as for the Vinterburg nom showing passion… You’re right, it did show passion. IN THE DIRECTORS BRANCH! NOT AMPAS as a whole. If there was really so much passion for it, it wouldve gotten a screenplay nom and an acting nom for Mikkelsen. It didn’t, meaning there wasnt widespread passion for it. So no, the two period films that both revolved around POC and had acting nominations wouldve gotten in over a Director-nominated foreign language movie…

    Oscars FYC:

    Visual Effects: Free Guy

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    Butz
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    #1204473716

    I can accept the CRA and AQP stances, but then still, First Man would’ve been over Cold War. And as for the Vinterburg nom showing passion… You’re right, it did show passion. IN THE DIRECTORS BRANCH! NOT AMPAS as a whole. If there was really so much passion for it, it wouldve gotten a screenplay nom and an acting nom for Mikkelsen. It didn’t, meaning there wasnt widespread passion for it. So no, the two period films that both revolved around POC and had acting nominations wouldve gotten in over a Director-nominated foreign language movie…

    That’s a fair stance. I’d say that Another Round missing in Actor and Original Screenplay against four/five Best Picture nominees (and Ma Rainey in Actor but tbf Chadwick was always going to get in against anyone) isn’t as bad as Ma Rainey missing out on Adapted against Borat and The White Tiger, but then we’re even more on the area of pure speculation and it’s not like we will ever know so let’s agree on there being compelling arguments for both sides.

    FYC - Oscars 2022:
    NINE DAYS in all categories, including:
    - Best Picture
    - Best Director
    - Best Original Screenplay
    - Best Actor (Winston Duke)
    - Best Supporting Actress (Zazie Beetz)
    - Best Supporting Actor (Benedict Wong)

    RIDERS OF JUSTICE:
    - Best Picture
    - Best Original Screenplay
    - Best Actor (Mads Mikkelsen)
    - Best Supporting Actor (Nicolas Bro)
    - Best International Feature

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    AwardsBait3818
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    #1204473762

    Best Picture

    Belfast
    CODA
    Don’t Look Up
    Dune
    House of Gucci
    Licorice Pizza
    The Lost Daughter
    Nightmare Alley
    The Power of the Dog
    Spencer

    Best Director

    Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
    Denis Villeneuve, Dune
    Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
    Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
    Jane Champion, The Power of the Dog

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    mateil
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    #1204473833

    BD thoughts.. We likely can “safely” reserve two other slots, for past nominees Kenneth Branagh and Jane Campion. Pedro Almodovar appears poised for a BD nomination (delivered a strong film, he could be called “overdue” for a nom in this category and the choice would align with the Ampas directors’ branch’s habit of tapping filmmakers working in languages other than English, as well as its long-standing tradition of not packing the category exclusively with past BD nominees. I don’t foresee Asghar Farhadi, Paolo Sorrentino, Joachim Trier, Julia Ducournau, Celine Sciamma, or others in this grouping overtaking or joining Almodovar here.) I’m not expecting another first-time BD nominee aside from Almodovar, so if the Ampas branch slips back to tapping only English-language picks as they had for several years prior to the year of Roma and Cold War I’m leaning toward Reinaldo Marcus Green getting the newbie slot. Others in that grouping under consideration include Pablo Larrain,, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Joe Wright, Mike Mills, Stephen Karam, Rebecca Hall and Sian Heder. Then we go back to the “vets” with past nominee Denis Villeneuve and a few late-breaking options among other previous nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson, Joel Coen, Steven Spielberg, Ridley Scott, Adam McKay and Guillermo del Toro. I’m opting for del Toro and McKay right now, but cases certainly can be made for others.

    Almodovar was nominated for Talk to Her.

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    Stefania
    Joined:
    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204473881

    The Lost Daughter is coming for a nomination in Picture.

    People just love Olivia Colman. Don’t underestimate her: people are going to watch “The Lost Daughter” because she’s in it.

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    kbc
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204473912

    BD thoughts..

    We likely can “safely” reserve two other slots, for past nominees Kenneth Branagh and Jane Campion.

    Pedro Almodóvar  appears poised for a BD nomination. I don’t foresee Asghar Farhadi, Paolo Sorrentino, Joachim Trier, Julia Ducournau, Celine Sciamma, or others in the grouping of “international” filmmakers overtaking or joining Almodóvar here, as the momentum Parallel Mothers gathered at Venice will be given an expected Stateside boost with its marquee spot at the coming NYFF, thanks to awards season war horse Sony Classics. Penelope Cruz appears to be in line for a second actress nom for one of his films, though of course Volver broke through in no other major categories just a few years after his Talk to Her garnered a warmer Ampas reception. Now with word of mouth so high, saying PM is the directors’s best work since at least the ‘90s, topping both Volver and Talk to Her, attention certainly must be paid. Also I continue to predict a BP nom for PM, and I struggle to see that happening without a corresponding BD nom (similar to the Amour situation, where I felt compelled to predict both).

    If asked to choose the strongest of the others in this category, I’d lean toward Trier, as I feel Neon may be planning a stealthy campaign for this as it  part of the FYC office manages Spencer and Flee, and this would satisfy the directors’ branch’s longtime MO of including at least one first-time nominee among its five picks. Even with The Worst Person in the World not getting a major post-TIFF jolt of energy, I like its chances as one that will turn the heads of a number of Ampas voters, and its coming NYFF booster shot can’t hurt.

    However, should the Ampas branch slip back into making only English-language picks, as they had for several years prior to the arrival of Roma and Cold War, I’m leaning toward Reinaldo Marcus Green getting the newbie slot. Now, King Richard could be a film that “surprises” in the days ahead as it gathers steam with added exposure including at the coming AFI fest. It should get a pre-release booster shot – a benefit Parallel Mothers, C’mon C’mon, Red Rocket, Passing & The Lost Daughter will likely enjoy at a Belfast-free NYFF –  now that the TIFF dust has settled. And it shall be interesting to see how the coming battle of deliberately “scrappy-underdog”-style heartwarmers from either side of the “pond” (Belfast and KR) actually takes shape.

    Others in the grouping of potential BD category newcomers under consideration include Pablo Larrain, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Joe Wright, Mike Mills, Stephen Karam, Rebecca Hall and Sian Heder. High-profile old-line critics’ awards might help identify breakout potential among them if they opt to look beyond Campion, which is an open question as she may well run the BD table with those precursors. My personal bias would like to give the nod to Mills, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Heder pop up with more hosannas, except I’m not yet confident that any of these films – some of which are prime screenplay-nom contenders – will see their momentum spill into directing contest.

    And, then there is this last grouping, some of which may catch the eye if critics’ groups looking for a Campion alternative –  including past nominee Denis Villeneuve and a few late-breaking options among other previous BD nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson, Joel Coen, Steven Spielberg, Ridley Scott, Adam McKay and Guillermo del Toro. I’m opting for del Toro and McKay right as the likelier now, but cases certainly can be made for others. Regarding del Toro, I simply can’t overstate the seasonal strength of Searchlight. As for McKay, Ampas clearly has shown an affinity for his signature style since graduating from the broadest comedy vein he used to mine, so downplaying his odds feels counterintuitive.

    Villeneuve is a tough call, as I think Dune will do just fine all things considered at the box office, and the branch has already let him in the club with his Arrival nom, but that was sci-fi “among us” grounded by Amy Adams’s acclaimed performance, versus sci-fi far removed from our world that I sense holds less appeal for your average Ampas voter. Perhaps I’m off the mark on that, but the skepticism gnaws at me, compounded with the explicit fact that Dune “One” is only “part” of the story. It shouldn’t rule it out, but will it face that argument being made?

    Similarly, I can’t shake this feeling that Spielberg isn’t going to break through with West Side Story. The bar is so high and challenging to clear for success in that genre, and with a property that was already aced 60 years prior, my doubts over the film’s potential Ampas reception persist. They also persist in relation to House of Gucci and The Tragedy of Macbeth – projects that sound appealing on paper but questions over their execution linger. And finally, and I say this as a PTA fan, the enigma of Licorice Pizza – the unconventional trailer rollout either indicates studio (MGM) confidence in the project amid all the festival activity that it isn’t partaking in (see HoG), or studio uncertainty and a willingness to go along with Anderson’s wishes because it’s at a loss of what else to do with what he handed in. WB didn’t ever get a real handle on Inherent Vice and this could be an echo of that experience. I figure a sceeenplay nom is assured, as that branch’s members like their PTA to sprawl, vs the more straitened scenario of, say, Phantom Thread, which didn’t score a writing nom.

    TL;DR
    Pedro Almodóvar
    Kenneth Branagh
    Jane Campion
    Guillermo del Toro
    Reinaldo Marcus Green

    On their heels: Adam McKay, Joachim Trier, Denis Villeneuve

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    mateil
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    Aug 23rd, 2017
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    #1204474101

    If by a some miracle RMG gets in for BD, King Richard is a slam dunk for a Picture win.

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204474205

    Officially seeing The <i>Power of the Dog</i>, SpencerFlee, Last Night in Soho and The Lost Daughter at LFF!

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design
    "CODA" – in all categories

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    Richie Rich
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    Aug 6th, 2021
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    #1204474250

    Has any other film leaked online? I’m bored.

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    Alessandro Leri
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    Sep 19th, 2021
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    #1204474281

    stances, but then still, First Man would’ve been over Cold War.

    Ridley Scott and Del Toro are not happening. Replace them with PTA and Branagh. Almodovar is also a huge contender.

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    SaulAtreides
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    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204474286

    Has any other film leaked online? I’m bored.

    Dear Evan Hansen, though maybe staying bored is better.

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