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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 10)

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    Marcus.H
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    #1204465540

    Starting to think this race is between PotD and Belfast. NA doesn’t seem like a BP winner based on the trailer, Dune probably won’t do it either, and the chances of The Humans winning Picture don’t seem good. I also doubt that Licorice Pizza, WSS, and DLU can do it and King Richard and Spencer certainly won’t. We’ll see how it all plays out, but these are the two films I see as having the best chance of winning right now. 

    I agree with you but still the idea that these contenders all have their weakness sounds so depressing lol.

     

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    mitchellfleming21
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    #1204465638

    Wait, so is The Humans gonna be a TV film then? Will it still be eligible?

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    JV
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    People are predicting a way too male-centric line up of Best Picture nominees.

    The Power of the Dog is the only movie directed by a woman in the TOP 10 of the predictions center.

    House of Gucci is the only movie starred exclusively by a woman (WSS and DLU have two leads) in the TOP 10. We know the narrative revolves around Gaga’s character.

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204465659

    People are predicting a way too male-centric line up of Best Picture nominees.

    The Power of the Dog is the only movie directed by a woman in the TOP 10 of the predictions center.

    House of Gucci is the only movie starred exclusively by a woman (WSS and DLU have two leads) in the TOP 10. We know the narrative revolves around Gaga’s character.

    Adam Driver is just as much of a lead as as Lady Gaga, the marketing is just focusing more on Gaga… They are equal leads in Gucci.

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    kaziz
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    #1204465672

    The Power of the Dog is the only movie directed by a woman in the TOP 10 of the predictions center.

    This is probably a good argument to take The Lost Daughter and/or Passing and/or CODA more seriously :/

    TLD is already on the fringe for me—it could well get in as of now as the 3rd Netflix film, but like Spencer it definitely seems more polarizing.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    crabbie
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    #1204465717

    I agree it is strange there is a lack of female leads exclusive films that would be poised to be nominated for Best Picture. This is why I have Spencer and The Lost Daughter both in. I am not sure if both would get in but I am confident at least one of the two will get in.

    Both films received strong reviews and the buzz surrounding the lead performances will be able to push both films into visibility and Best Picture grounds.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    wolfali
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    #1204465735

    Wait, so is The Humans gonna be a TV film then? Will it still be eligible?

    Considering its getting a theatrical release too my guess is it will be Oscar eligible.

    Although it will probably be ineligible at DGA like Dune.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    Stefania
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    #1204465757

    I agree it is strange there is a lack of female leads exclusive films that would be poised to be nominated for Best Picture. This is why I have Spencer and The Lost Daughter both in. I am not sure if both would get in but I am confident at least one of the two will get in. Both films received strong reviews and the buzz surrounding the lead performances will be able to push both films into visibility and Best Picture grounds.

    Same here. I am more confident in “Spencer” than “The Lost Daughter”, but I have them both in for the moment.

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    JV
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    #1204465759

    CODA is done, sadly. Apple did it dirty by dumping the movie in August without playing it at the festivals, and it doesn’t has the overwhelming support from critics that other Sundance movies (Whiplash, Minari, Manchester by the Sea, Call Me By Your Name) had. Neither has Passing.

    I’m confident in The Lost Daughter and I don’t think that scorechart of festivals is a reliable picture of reality. The movie appeals to European sensibilities since it’s based on a legendary Italian writer and it has Olivia Colman.

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    kaziz
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    #1204465776

    I agree it is strange there is a lack of female leads exclusive films that would be poised to be nominated for Best Picture. This is why I have Spencer and The Lost Daughter both in. I am not sure if both would get in but I am confident at least one of the two will get in.

    Both films received strong reviews and the buzz surrounding the lead performances will be able to push both films into visibility and Best Picture grounds.

    Ya I have them both in too. I think Spencer and The Lost Daughter both have enough buzz, and frankly more and more female-led films that have raved lead performances and are received well are getting their films into BP. Promising Young Woman! The Favourite, 3BB got raves as films in any case but people had misgivings about The Favourite as a BP player for quite a while. I, Tonya was probably close. Brooklyn, Room, Philomena were all also a bit of a surprise and BP and Actress were, I believe among their only noms.

    Both Spencer & TLD are eligible for National Board of Review which HoG, WSS, Licorice Pizza, DLU won’t be (Netflix can easily shift DLU’s theatrical release date to a little earlier though!) I will also say: let’s not count out Passing! It was high up for ages and the festival films pushed it down, but it’s about to play every single possible festival AND it’s a new cut so it’s intriguing.

    It’s pretty funny, I think predix that don’t have at least the first 2 films in yet have many or ALL of the late films lol, but increasingly people are ditching some of them (WSS, Tragedy of Macbeth are being ditched more than the others, I think)

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204465784

    LOL if Maggie G gets Directing nom for a movie barely anyone will see, while Cooper and Affleck didn’t for movies that were legit boxoffice hits. I guess director branch bias is tougher on actors than actresses.

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    Marcus.H
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    #1204465802

    So “Dune” was finally released in my country 2 days ago and based on the reactions online, I have to say the early raves from film twitter are extremely hyperbolic, especially the Lord of the Ring comparison lmao… This seems to happen in only below-the-line categories.

    I’m gonna watch it on Sunday!

     

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    Stefania
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    #1204465808

    So “Dune” was finally released in my country 2 days ago and based on the reactions online, I have to say the early raves from film twitter are extremely hyperbolic, especially the Lord of the Ring comparison lmao… This seems to happen in only below-the-line categories. I’m gonna watch it on Sunday!

    I’m going on Monday! 👍🏼

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204465812

    Dune is in. Will sweep techs. But Picture and Director are in. It’s doing very well in Europe so it could get support from those voters too.

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    kaziz
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    #1204465853

    Re: Denis & MCU, I have brief thoughts:

    – MCU films are formulaic, Denis is not TOTALLY wrong. BUT these franchise cut-and-paste formulas have been around for ages. Doing what the MCU films have done as a franchise is not…….easy, otherwise the million other franchises would also have made every single film in their banner must-watches for the overarching mythology and story. That’s REALLY COOL and not easy!

    – I don’t care that Denis feels this way, people like Campion and Scorsese and Coppola say they don’t watch such films lol and I believe them. it affects nothing for me in terms of my excitement for Dune. But I said in the beginning I just wish he hadn’t said it whilst leading up to the release of Dune—and then it went fucking viral, so why man why piss off MCU stans, there’s just so many of them.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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