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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 10)

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    lorelei lor
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    Dec 20th, 2017
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    #1204481582

    Sure everybody has their own predictions but that does not mean Adam McKay hasn’t already proved that he doesn’t need festivals. Even DiCaprio has proved he doesn’t need festivals with the way movies like The Departed and The Revenant performed at the Oscars. Don’t Look Up is still my pick to win best picture and I am expecting nominations for DiCaprio, Streep and Rylance in addition to director, editing, screenplay, visual effects and sound.

    Oh no. I don’t want to sound condescending or all-knowing but that’s not happening.

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    fvg627
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    Sep 23rd, 2019
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    #1204481598

    If this guy is to be believed, Dune could be looking at a 0% drop in its second weekend

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204481608

    Don’t Look Up would need to fare against Belfast in Original Screenplay which will be one of the most beloved films of the year and could possibly walk away with screenplay like Jojo Rabbit. Licorice Pizza is highly competitive as well with PTA’s overdue factor and likely to hit similar beats similar to Boogie Nights and Magnolia which were previously nominated in screenplay. I don’t see any compulsion for the Academy to give McKay his second Oscar when he won 6 years ago and is competing against an overdue screenwriter and a beloved film. Again it took nearly 3 decades for Taraninto to get his second screenplay Oscar. And without screenplay, it’s no Best Picture win.

    You brought up this point before about how McKay won very recently but many multiple screenplay winners did it in quick succession so that has never been a problem historically. And especially not now when AMPAS is showing more and more that they don’t care about overdue status and narratives and just vote for whatever they like.

     

    Chayefsky, Brackett, Bolt, Wilson, Mankiewicz, Seaton, Coppola, Sargent, Payne, maybe more. These are all writers that won screenplay Oscars is pretty quick succession. It’s just not a factor.

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    crabbie
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    #1204481619

    TPOTD seems to be poised to win at least one ATL category thanks to its Venice and TIFF performance. Most likely Adapted Screenplay or Actor/Supporting Actress and even director where Campion is the frontrunner. Netflix has never had two films both win one ATL category (Trial of Chicago 7 and The Irishman tanked) at the Oscars. I don’t think there is an overbearing Netflix bias at the Academy, but it’s just statistically unlikely for DLU to also win one ATL Oscar for a film that’s not an acting player to win Oscars and isn’t a director showcase like Cuaron’s Roma.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    crabbie
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    #1204481621

    Chayefsky, Brackett, Bolt, Wilson, Mankiewicz, Seaton, Coppola, Sargent, Payne, maybe more. These are all writers that won screenplay Oscars is pretty quick succession. It’s just not a factor.

    You brought up the greatest screenwriters of all time once again against a McKay film that will most likely get a 65-79 Metacritic score lol.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204481636

    You brought up the greatest screenwriters of all time once again against a McKay film that will most likely get a 65-79 Metacritic score lol.

    So the problem is that McKay is in your opinion not a great screenwriter, but not that he won an Oscar just 6 years ago? I can not keep up with these moving goalposts…

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    .
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    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204481642

    I just think DLU will suck. If I’m wrong then I’m wrong. We’ll just have to wait and see I guess.

    I mean y’all are wishing, hoping and praying for this to happen, it’s so fucking obvious. And even it sucks people are still gonna watch it. And I’m pretty fucking sure it will be the most viewed movie on netflix this year so there is that. Now, if it’s really bother you that much then don’t watch, nobody is forcing you. God bless.

     

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204481647

    Oh no. I don’t want to sound condescending or all-knowing but that’s not happening.

    But if you are not all-knowing, you don’t know if that is not happening lol

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    crabbie
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    #1204481657

    So the problem is that McKay in not a great screenwriter in your opinion and not that he won an Oscar just 6 years ago? I can not keep up with these moving goalposts…

    Moving goalposts? Coppola and Brackett among the most notable examples you brought up are one of the all time greatest screenwriters and directors of all time. Their films are fundamental pieces of cinema and their films were so undeniable in brilliance that allowed them to win in such quick succession. If you think Don’t Look Up will be this grandiose piece of filmmaking that is a significant mold  of contemporary cinema, then by all means predict Don’t Look Up will win Original Screenplay with 100% confidence. I’m not even suggesting DLU cant possibly win, but there is stats and competitors of the film that will make that outcome unlikely.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204481663

    I think Belfast is almost locked to win Original Screenplay. Almost all TIFF audience winners won at least one Oscar.

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    lorelei lor
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    Dec 20th, 2017
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    #1204481667

    But if you are not all-knowing, you don’t know if that is not happening lol

    Some things are just obvious even this early. One doesn’t have to be all-knowing or a genius to realize certain movies are not winning. I just don’t think DLU will have what it takes to beat TPOTD, Belfast, Nightmare Alley or even Licorice Pizza in those key categories necessary for it to win BP. Sounds more like wishful thinking.

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204481676

    Moving goalposts? Coppola and Payne among the most notable examples you brought up are one of the all time greatest screenwriters and directors of all time. Their films are fundamental pieces of cinema and their films were so undeniable in brilliance that allowed them to win in such quick succession. If you think Don’t Look Up will be this grandiose piece of filmmaking that is a significant mold of contemporary cinema, then by all means predict Don’t Look Up will win Original Screenplay with 100% confidence. I’m not even suggesting DLU cant possibly win, but there is stats and competitors of the film that will make that outcome unlikely.

    I was talking about your initial point about how McKay winning so recently will hurt him. I brought up examples of how that doesn’t really matter but then you brought up a completely different point about how McKay isn’t that good.

    I mean ok if you think McKay sucks and is not good enough to win 2 Oscars but that doesn’t mean winning in quick succession is a problem, because winning in quick succession is how most screenwriters win their Oscars. You can not make the first point about time between wins and then latch on to another subjective point when I give you facts about how it happens often. That is moving the goalposts.

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204481689

    Some things are just obvious even this early. One doesn’t have to be all-knowing or a genius to realize certain movies are not winning. I just don’t think DLU will have what it takes to beat TPOTD, Belfast, Nightmare Alley or even Licorice Pizza in those key categories necessary for it to win BP. Sounds more like wishful thinking.

    I can say the same thing in return. Ruling out McKay whose last two movies were in the top 5 of winning BP this year also sounds like wishful thinking. It does not evade me that most people who are dismissing DLU already have their minds made up that it will suck. We can either make points based on what we know or we can attack other people based on assumptions.

    What we know is that McKay’s last two movies…

    1 Got into BP

    2 Got into BD

    3 Got into screenplay, winning 1 time

     

    And this time he has the most respected ensemble cast of the year with Oscar favorites like Lawrence, DiCaprio, Streep, Blanchett…

    I mean obviously McKay has more going for him on paper than PTA. Just because McKay is an Oscar winner (which is a good thing!!) does not mean he can not beat PTA. Now THAT sounds like wishful thinking from people who want PTA to win his first Oscar.

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    Stank83
    Joined:
    Mar 8th, 2020
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    #1204481693

    Apparently The Tender Bar will have its World premiere at the London Film Festival.

    But still, I’m doubtful it will be any good.

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    Vicki Leekx
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    Aug 3rd, 2019
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    #1204481720

    The thing about the B&W was that every critic commented on it (many many many reviews from the unedited version that showed at Sundance) and said it actually comes off really well, it’s not a gimmick, there’s a clear reasoning behind it. So I don’t think it’s a shtick designed to show that “they can’t actually pass” or whatever, and in any case both Negga and Thompson are light-skinned enough to seem dusky. The first time I saw Ruth Negga I actually DID think she was white or mixed lol (I saw her in some TV show before Loving). Tessa I first saw in Dear White People, but her role is obviously very different. They both look SO. BLOODY. GOOD. Also, I think Passing or The Lost Daughter ARE getting into BP, maybe both. Passing is more of a Sound of Metal-like choice (intelligent & unexpectedly moving) and The Lost Daughter is an actress-led vehicle that may not be for everyone but is lauded enough to get in on the strength of its main performance and overall feat. With guaranteed 10 nominations, these two, and Spencer—which might have previously seemed on the bubble for me—are much more likely to be in than out.

    Ah that’s reassuring, I can see it being more effective and less so…just need to wait and see! I’ve recommended the book to friends so it’s definitely stuck in my mind…

    FYC:

    Swinton, Weerasethakul Memoria, (Best Actress, Director)
    Efira, Rampling, Wilson Benedetta (Best Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)
    Rapace Lamb (Best Actress)
    Stewart, Hawkins, Spall Spencer (Best Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)

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