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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 10)

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  • Profile picture
    Tick Tock
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    #1204481725

    Apparently The Tender Bar will have its World premiere at the London Film Festival.

    But still, I’m doubtful it will be any good.

    It is rumored that Ben Affleck is really good in the movie and will its biggest acting contender. I don’t think the movie will be a BP contender but I can imagine Affleck getting nominated if the category remains weak.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204481772

    I mean y’all are wishing, hoping and praying for this to happen, it’s so fucking obvious. And even it sucks people are still gonna watch it. And I’m pretty fucking sure it will be the most viewed movie on netflix this year so there is that. Now, if it’s really bother you that much then don’t watch, nobody is forcing you. God bless.

    Yeah, DLU will be a big hit on Netflix. Leo + all-star cast + some SFX + disaster genre + entertaining movie according to test screening. But Leo alone could read a phonebook and it would be a hit. Coincidently or not, Netflix has reelased OUATIH last month and WOWS this month almost as if a lead-in to DLU.

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    Stefania
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    #1204481804

    Leo can do no wrong. DLU will be nominated for BP and more. Some people will not like it, like all Mackay movies. I am not sure I will 100% like it, but judging by the leaked script there will be some funny and very watchable scenes. Whether it will win awards, that’s another story and I can’t say.

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    wolfali
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    #1204481819

    I think Belfast is almost locked to win Original Screenplay. Almost all TIFF audience winners won at least one Oscar.

    Nothing is locked to win anything at this stage but I have to say it is looking good for the screenplay prize. Especially if <i>Licorice Pizza </i>flops.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    George Ehret
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    #1204481859

    I think DLU being nominated in VFX and Sound is a pretty big stretch. Being a major Best Picture contender with VFX and Sound doesn’t guarantee that you get those things, you have to have something to show for it. The Shape of Water and Dunkirk were both snubbed as well as Black Panther and Mank. And they can miss Sound as well like The Irishman. The only craft you actually really need a nomination for in order to be one of the top two or three in contention to win is Editing. The only reason Birdman was able to win without it is because it’s a “one-take” movie. Otherwise, you can get snubbed in every craft besides Editing and still win Best Picture (like Green Book)

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    kbc
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    #1204481900

    I think DLU being nominated in VFX and Sound is a pretty big stretch. Being a major Best Picture contender with VFX and Sound doesn’t guarantee that you get those things, you have to have something to show for it. The Shape of Water and Dunkirk were both snubbed as well as Black Panther and Mank. And they can miss Sound as well like The Irishman. The only craft you actually really need a nomination for in order to be one of the top two or three in contention to win is Editing. The only reason Birdman was able to win without it is because it’s a “one-take” movie. Otherwise, you can get snubbed in every craft besides Editing and still win Best Picture (like Green Book)

    Yes surprised we don’t have more film editing predictions on here / you narrow that down you are that much closer to forecasting BP correctly. Also we have no “one take” fakes like Birdman or 1917 to potentially throw us off the trail.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    Richie Rich
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    #1204481945

    I think DLU being nominated in VFX and Sound is a pretty big stretch. Being a major Best Picture contender with VFX and Sound doesn’t guarantee that you get those things, you have to have something to show for it. The Shape of Water and Dunkirk were both snubbed as well as Black Panther and Mank. And they can miss Sound as well like The Irishman. The only craft you actually really need a nomination for in order to be one of the top two or three in contention to win is Editing. The only reason Birdman was able to win without it is because it’s a “one-take” movie. Otherwise, you can get snubbed in every craft besides Editing and still win Best Picture (like Green Book)

    Well the closest comp to Don’t Look Up is Meteor, a 1979 science fiction disaster film starring Sean Connery and Natalie Wood, The film follows a group of scientists struggling with Cold War politics after an asteroid is detected to be on a collision course with Earth. You can’t make this up, it almost sounds like Don’t Look Up is a remake.

    Anyways my point is Metoer got mixed to negative reviews and didn’t do well with awards but still managed to get nominated for Best Sound and it was one category back then like it is now. So Don’t Look Up which is definitely going to do better at the oscars will also get a Best Sound nomination.

    I’m still not convinced about Visual Effects though. But McKay’s last two films both got editing because of his unique editing style and since the same editor is doing Don’t Look Up, I think editing is locked.

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    Richie Rich
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    #1204481979

    And also on Don’t Look Up. I know most people aren’t predicting it in acting categories and the people who are think Mark Rylance will be the supporting actor push. But hear me out, what if we have another Trial of the Chicago 7 situation and Jonah Hill pulls a Sacha Baron Cohen on Mark Rylance? Like what if the Academy goes for the more comedic performance instead of the more serious performance? Especially if Jonah Hill’s performance is more like his performance in his previous DiCarprio collab The Wolf of Wall Street which a got him a supporting actor nomination. Just food for thought.

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    Stefania
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    #1204482002

    I would like to bring people down to earth (not only in Best Picture predictions): Belfast is down to 80% on RT with 20 reviews. I know that if it’s a crowdpleaser the critics’ opinion doesn’t matter that much, but maybe it’s not that juggernaut that it’s going to win everything…

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    H. H.
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    #1204482039

    I would like to bring people down to earth (not only in Best Picture predictions): Belfast is down to 80% on RT with 20 reviews. I know that if it’s a crowdpleaser the critics’ opinion doesn’t matter that much, but maybe it’s not that juggernaut that it’s going to win everything…

    I have nothing against this movie but the pundits are pushing it like it’s the second coming. Truly insufferable.

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204482042

    I would like to bring people down to earth (not only in Best Picture predictions): Belfast is down to 80% on RT with 20 reviews. I know that if it’s a crowdpleaser the critics’ opinion doesn’t matter that much, but maybe it’s not that juggernaut that it’s going to win everything…

    No one said it was a juggernaut. It is, however, locked for at least one above the line win as it has been for every People’s Choice Winner in the last 10 years.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    Feb 19th, 2012
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    #1204482049

    I would like to bring people down to earth (not only in Best Picture predictions): Belfast is down to 80% on RT with 20 reviews. I know that if it’s a crowdpleaser the critics’ opinion doesn’t matter that much, but maybe it’s not that juggernaut that it’s going to win everything…

    Films have won with less than 80% RT and it’s early days in a long Oscar season. I don’t think it will win everything but I think it has a strong chance at BAFTA’s and will do well with the nominations in the various awards shows leading up to the Oscars. It is one of a few films that has a strong chance at winning the Oscar – it doesn’t need to be loved by everyone to win, just look at Green Book’s win or Spotlight’s win or Argo’s win, just to name a few Oscar-winning films in the last ten years.

    I am waiting to see how several other top contenders fare once they come out and are seen by more people.

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    Stefania
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    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204482055

    No one said it was a juggernaut. It is, however, locked for at least one above the line win as it has been for every People’s Choice Winner in the last 10 years.

    Sure, I agree with that, one win above the line for sure, but some people here are thinking it’s winning everything from Cinematography to  Screenplay and getting 4 acting nominations…

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    Vicki Leekx
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    Aug 3rd, 2019
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    #1204482063

    And also on Don’t Look Up. I know most people aren’t predicting it in acting categories and the people who are think Mark Rylance will be the supporting actor push. But hear me out, what if we have another Trial of the Chicago 7 situation and Jonah Hill pulls a Sacha Baron Cohen on Mark Rylance? Like what if the Academy goes for the more comedic performance instead of the more serious performance? Especially if Jonah Hill’s performance is more like his performance in his previous DiCarprio collab The Wolf of Wall Street which a got him a supporting actor nomination. Just food for thought.

    As recently as last year hetero actor James Corden received backlash for hamming it up as a gay man, I’m guessing Hill won’t get a free pass either even in a more “prestige” project…

    FYC:

    Swinton, Weerasethakul Memoria, (Best Actress, Director)
    Efira, Rampling, Wilson Benedetta (Best Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)
    Rapace Lamb (Best Actress)
    Stewart, Hawkins, Spall Spencer (Best Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)

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    Richie Rich
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    #1204482096

    As recently as last year hetero actor James Corden received backlash for hamming it up as a gay man, I’m guessing Hill won’t get a free pass either even in a more “prestige” project…

    I still don’t get why it matters that he is not gay. It’s called acting not reality TV.

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