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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 10)

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    JV
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    Fall Film Festival Metacritic Scores updated:

    Petite Maman: 94
    The Power of the Dog: 92
    The Rescue: 92
    Memoria: 89
    Flee: 89
    The Velvet Underground: 89
    Drive My Car: 89
    The Lost Daughter: 88
    The Worst Person in the World: 88
    Spencer: 85
    Parallel Mothers: 85
    C’mon C’mon: 84
    Ali & Ava: 84
    The French Dispatch: 82
    The Duke: 81
    Happening: 81
    The Card Counter: 79
    Marcel the Shell with Shoes On: 79
    7 Prisoners: 79
    Jockey: 79
    Bergman Island: 79
    Red Rocket: 78
    A Hero: 78
    King Richard: 77
    Compartment No. 6: 76
    Sundown: 76
    Titane: 76
    Dune: 75
    The Hand of God: 75
    Benediction: 75
    Belfast: 75
    Cyrano: 75
    I’m Your Man: 75
    Ahed’s Knee: 74
    The Mad Women’s Ball: 73
    Il Buco: 72
    Mothering Sunday: 69
    The Forgiven: 68
    Last Night in Soho: 67
    Julia: 67
    The Guilty: 66
    Encounter: 62
    The Last Duel: 61
    The Electrical Life of Louis Wain: 57
    The Eyes of Tammy Faye: 53
    France: 51
    Halloween Kills: 47
    Dashcam: 45
    Dear Evan Hansen: 41
    The Story of My Wife: 40
    Lakewood: 35
    The Starling: 33

    Interesting that Green Book was the only BP winner in the preferential era with a score lower than 86.

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    diego
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    There’s no way NA is winning 3 acting categories pls

    What’s funny is that none of the three categories the person is predicting is the likeliest NA could win.

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    lorelei lor
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    Predicted winners: Picture – Licorice pizza Director – PTA Actor – Smith Actress – Blanchett Supp. Actor – dafoe Supp. Actress – colette Original screenplay – Licorice pizza Adapted screenplay – nightmare alley It’s over

    The blind stanning has reached new levels

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    KB93
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    The blind stanning has reached new levels

    He definitely needs that cigarette break after those Last Duel reactions ☠️

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    George Ehret
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    What’s funny is that none of the three categories the person is predicting is the likeliest NA could win.

    Fr tho like with all the competition and their roles I just don’t get it at all

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204466879

    I was on the Nightmare Alley train for the longest time and I still am in the sense that I think it’s top 5, but I don’t think it’s winning any acting Oscars. Could get two nominations for Cooper and Blanchett though…

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    KB93
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    I was on the Nightmare Alley train for the longest time and I still am in the sense that I think it’s top 5, but I don’t think it’s winning any acting Oscars. Could get two nominations for Cooper and Blanchett though…

    I agree completely. Del Toro has always made beautiful films and created great stories, but one thing he’s never done has directed any actors to winning an Oscar, and I don’t think it’s going to start with Nightmare Alley.

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    wolfali
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    I think we’re getting a film not in the English language nominee in Picture this year with how the field is thinning out and there are 10 slots this year.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    George Ehret
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    I think we’re getting a film not in the English language nominee in Picture this year with how the field is thinning out and there are 10 slots this year.

    In that case can it PLEASE be The Worst Person in the World? Along with a nomination for Renate Reinsve and maybe a Director or Screenplay nom for Joachim Trier? I’d love it

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    Milk Money
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    #1204467067

    I watched The Power of the Dog. It’s a poetic intimate psychological drama with beautiful direction. Cumberbatch and Dunst were simply breathtaking. I can see this film winning BP, directing, lead actor and supporting actress. Kirsten Dunst is put in supporting but she could have also been put in lead as she was more of a main character in the middle scenes. Lastly, I don’t see this winning adapted screenplay as this was more of a character drama than being plot oriented and recent winners have been plot oriented films.

    Lol I doubt Netflix is winning all of those awards no matter how acclaimed the film.

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    wolfali
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    In that case can it PLEASE be The Worst Person in the World? Along with a nomination for Renate Reinsve and maybe a Director or Screenplay nom for Joachim Trier? I’d love it

    I think it’s possible. Maybe not a Reinsve nod but I think the film could become the International feature frontrunner if it places at TIFF tomorrow.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    SN
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    #1204467098

    Interesting that Green Book was the only BP winner in the preferential era with a score lower than 86.

    And it was much lower (69).

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    SN
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    I think we’re getting a film not in the English language nominee in Picture this year with how the field is thinning out and there are 10 slots this year.

    I’m still convinced that Another Round would’ve been nominated last year.

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    kaziz
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    And it was much lower (69).

    Not much lower, not at this point. I remember Green Book being in the 70s for quite some time so I checked, and yeah it was 73 MC for a solid two months after TIFF until it premiered in theaters.

    That’s where the bulk of the reviews for every movie (52 in this case) come from: at date of public theatrical release. The reviews later on did make impact how people saw its chances, but by that point most films have either cemented their place as big players or not, because awards season is so weird. Green Book was locked for the nomination at that point.

    EDIT: Lol Belfast already went down to 74. I mean obviously we are imagining a Green Book-like trajectory, but I can’t help but think: those aren’t great odds.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Rynd_Rawikara
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    I know this isn’t the right thread, but I’m just gonna drop this:

    I watched The Rider last night after putting it on my watchlist for so long. I genuinely think it’s even better than Nomadland. I like Nomadland, but it didn’t spark anything in me?? Zhao is truly a generational talent.

    EDIT: too bad The Rider wasn’t nominated for many awards, even among critics

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