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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 10)

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204468356

    Just got out of the Lost Daughter. Without spoiling why, I actually thought the screenplay was the weakest aspect. The direction was very assured, especially for a first time director. Colman is the only Oscar possibility for acting imo but she really shines here. Picture and screenplay are possiblities but I don’t feel as strong about them as I did before.

    Honestly, we really need to also consider that 4 major novels adapted and in contention this year are ALL incredibly, incredibly hard to adapt. Dune famously so, of course. The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter—I couldn’t even imagine an adaptation so it was very surprising to find out Campion, Hall, Gyllenhaal were doing so, and I think the writer’s branch is snooty enough to A, know the source material or at least how much its reputation precedes itself, and B, reward these films for evoking strong reactions.

    Frankly, I’ve been sorting my thoughts about whether I fault the writing of TPOTD at all (so many have said it’s the weakest part of the film), and I just don’t agree. The things people don’t like are purposeful, not accidental. I think it’s fantastic. Haven’t seen The Lost Daughter or Passing but the reviews make me think Gyllenhaal and Hall have done a fab job.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kaziz
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    #1204468361

    I mean…..probably Belfast (about to be announced)……

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Qoslca
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    Oct 19th, 2018
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    #1204468365

    Belfast wins People’s Choice at TIFF! Best Picture winner confirmed?

    My username is an acronym of “Quiet On Set! Lights, Camera, Action.”

    “Good morning, and in case I don’t see ya, good afternoon, good evening, and goodnight.” —Truman Burbank, The Truman Show

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204468369

    TIFF crowd never changes. Predicting Maestro wins People Choice next year starting today.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    Lucas
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    Jun 24th, 2020
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    #1204468374

    White Roma is coming for blood lol

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    Babygirl
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    Sep 12th, 2018
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    #1204468386

    Inchresting how TPOTD topped the Telluride poll AND made it top 3 at TIFF, but I was told it would be a hard watch for basics?

    I did vote for Belfast and TPOTD though, whew my mind.

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    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204468389

    All TIFF winners since 2012 were at least nominated for Best Picture. Given that Belfast is also the main contender from Focus/Universal, I can’t see how it’ll miss the nomination now.

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    crabbie
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    #1204468391

    White Roma coming for an above the line win since every People Choice winner since 2012 has won an ATL category. I’m thinking it will take one of the supporting categories or possibly Original Screenplay if Licorice Pizza takes. Regardless Belfast is top 2 in contention for Original Screenplay right now or could possibly be the frontrunner.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204468396

    There we go. Good for you, Belfast! So as of now it seems like we’re in a race similar enough to Green Book & Roma.

    Green Book = Belfast = 73/74 MC at end of TIFF = not Netflix
    Roma = The Power of the Dog = 92/92 at end of TIFF = Netflix

    So I get the similarities, but there’s many ways in which this is not the same race either.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    KB93
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    Sep 8th, 2021
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    #1204468410

    @SN it’s not letting me quote you for some reason but where are you getting that 30-35 million figure from? It’s made 8 million so far in 2 days, Deadline is projecting it at 20 million.

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    Donnna
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    Feb 11th, 2021
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    #1204468412

    Was Dune eligible btw?

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    gorman
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    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1204468416

    Belfast wins People’s Choice at TIFF! Best Picture winner confirmed?

    Not quite. They’re not that good at aligning their winner with the BP winner. They’ve only aligned 4 times at the past 10 festivals. Belfast and TPOTD are now locks for Picture nominations, though. No real doubt about that. I think TPOTD was boosted just as much as Belfast really – there were doubts about its audience appeal and this lessens that concern to an extent. Both get big above the line boosts. Completely feasible they’re 1 and 2 in the BP race come next March.

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    KB93
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    Sep 8th, 2021
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    #1204468425

    Isnt this film suppose to be extremely polarizing and nobody would recommend this film to anyone except hardcore cinephiles?

    Listen, I’ve got egg on my face, I will be one of the first that admits I leaned into those reactions on LB and Twitter far too much lol. It’s a fantastic film and definitely not polarizing.

    How much stock does this Tiff award even have on awards though?

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204468429

    How are the races different—GB/Roma & Belfast/TPOTD?
    Roma was a foreign film with no famous cast members
    Green Book became more controversial upon theatrical release.
    Belfast‘s director has more of a narrative than Green Book‘s did. Dunno if Campion has a bigger narrative than Cuaron but both had films that were seen as huge directorial achievements & she’s made a comeback.
    – The whole Netflix bias = in my opinion, not at all as significant as it was in 2018 since you have a million other streamers competing too now.
    – Pretttttty sure (I’m hedging here) the actors of TPOTD have gotten bigger raves & are (slightly? unsure) more win-competitive than those of Belfast.

    Then obviously their competition is totally different too. Feel free to @ me angrily or add on, this is just how I see it lol.

    I’m not even sure the race will be between these two tbh, but they’re the strongest right now. Still, it’s too simple. It’s following the trajectory a little too much. AMPAS has changed quite a bit since 2018. I don’t know, but the preferential ballot ≠ People’s Choice Award, obviously.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204468437

    How much stock does this Tiff award even have on awards though?

    Belfast is destined to win at least one ATL category if the stat of every winner since 2012 winning one ATL award holds true next year.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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