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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 11)

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    kaziz
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    #1204489750

    I don’t mind the word per se lol and yes I agree accessibility is important but people are way too focused on it especially when the Academy has proven many times that they responded well to movies that weren’t deemed ‘accessible’ or Oscar friendly.

    It’s actually more than a little bizarre because the Oscars are low-key KNOWN for choosing “high-brow” dramas that aren’t super popular lol. Like historically, that’s the reputation it’s had! That’s just…true! The preferential ballot changed things but I wouldn’t say accessibility had much to do with the winners, I’d say “high-brow”/”elite” are the better words to describe most BP winners and nominees. Note that I’m not necessarily using the words positively.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Milk Money
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    #1204489768

    Coen’s movie is distributed by a streaming company as The Power of the Dog is. One is Apple, the other is Netflix. It changes nothing.
    Anyway I’m sure Del Toro is not even going to get nominated even tough Nightmare alley might be a very good movie and I do believe it is going to be nominated in all the technical categories and it is the front runner for cinematography and design. I predict those nominees for director
    1) Campion
    2) Coen
    3) Branagh
    4) Sorrentino
    5) McKay/Villeneuve

    We don’t know yet if the Academy has as big of a bias towards Apple than they do Netflix, which many older members single-handedly blame for destroying the movie biz. I’ve been told this more than once. Cuaron was the only major winner to overcome the bias, partly because he was a highly respected previous recipient like Coen.

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    lorelei lor
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    #1204489788

    I don’t think Coen is winning for a stage play and his approach seems to be quite austere. From what I’ve seen the most praise is going to performances and cinematography anyway. Every one is like ‘visually it was haunting and Denzel/Kathryn were amazing’.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204489811

    I love PTA. Magnolia should have won BP. He’s overdue as hell. Liquorice Pizza is NOT his Oscar moment.

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    Alessandro Leri
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    #1204489822

    Guys when is James Gray’s “Armageddon Time” coming out? 2022 or 2023?

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    kbc
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    #1204489876

    The U.K.’s Guardian: Where Does the Oscar Race Stand After This Year’s Big Festivals?

    The Guardian’s Benjamin Lee offers what he calls “seven safe-ish nominee bets.”

    Will Smith – best actor, King Richard

    Penélope Cruz – best actress, Parallel Mothers

    Kenneth Branagh – best director, Belfast

    Joaquin Phoenix – best actor, C’mon C’mon

    Olivia Colman – best actress, The Lost Daughter

    Jane Campion – best director, The Power of the Dog

    Jessica Chastain – best actress, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

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    Stank83
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    #1204490040

    1. The Power of The Dog
    2. Belfast
    3. Don’t Look Up
    4. King Richard
    5. Dune
    6. Licorice Pizza
    7. The Tragedy of Macbeth
    8. Spencer
    9. Passing
    10.West Side Story

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204490124

    The U.K.’s Guardian: Where Does the Oscar Race Stand After This Year’s Big Festivals? The Guardian’s Benjamin Lee offers what he calls “seven safe-ish nominee bets.” Will Smith – best actor, King Richard Penélope Cruz – best actress, Parallel Mothers Kenneth Branagh – best director, Belfast Joaquin Phoenix – best actor, C’mon C’mon Olivia Colman – best actress, The Lost Daughter Jane Campion – best director, The Power of the Dog Jessica Chastain – best actress, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Well, well, UK trade calls Chastain safe-ish but not Stewart even though UK doesn’t know who Tammy Faye is but know Princes Diana. Very interesting. While it’s just 1 trade opinion, perhaps Chastain has a better shot at BAFTA nom ven with woke jury than Actress thread thinks. What that means for Stewart is hard to judge.

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    Lucas
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    #1204490152

    What? 😂 Del Toro is coming up with a very dark material, there’s nothing Oscar baity in Nightmare Alley but I see it to be the front runner in cinematography and production design. Plus Del Toro won director just 3 years ago. Here the points for Campion : she is doing her coming back after 12 years, she has an overdue story in directing, she made the most critical acclaimed movie of the year (with Coen’s one) and academy would love to reward a woman again. She’s easily going to win director.

    I just think that to win Director you need to be very competitive for Picture. At least top 3, and I don’t see it for this movie.

    Nobody’s easily winning in september lol

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    Vincent Figueroa
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    #1204490167

    Well, well, UK trade calls Chastain safe-ish but not Stewart even though UK doesn’t know who Tammy Faye is but know Princes Diana. Very interesting. While it’s just 1 trade opinion, perhaps Chastain has a better shot at BAFTA nom ven with woke jury than Actress thread thinks. What that means for Stewart is hard to judge.

    It is not too hard to know the reasons …

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204490179

    My current predictions for BP:

    Belfast
    Don’t Look Up
    Dune
    House of Gucci
    The Lost Daughter
    Nightmare Alley
    Passing
    The Power of the Dog
    The Tragedy of Macbeth
    West Side Story

    I can’t get past how much I dislike the trailer for Licorice Pizza. I will have to wait and see if my aversion towards the two leads is shared by enough others or not.

    The Hand of God and Parallel Mothers are question marks – in recent years there have been foreign language films in the final lineup.

    CODA and Spencer – I think they will both miss the top ten.

    King Richard – I will try to explain my antipathy towards this movie: I played tennis in high school and college. The parents who push their children into tennis at too early an age as stage mothers and stage fathers are dangerous to their kids and ought not be celebrated. As someone who does not believe the ends justify the means (the argument that Serena became a great player) I dislike the subject matter of the movie. There were really good reasons that the other players asked for Richard Williams to be removed from tournaments. He was awful. I also really don’t understand why people like the competent movie star antics of Will Smith. Count me out! I don’t like him at all. This film is a “feel good” type movie but nobody should be feeling good about him and his behavior. I also hated the trailer. I know others have a different opinion and think the film will make the top ten but I don’t think so. I think audiences will be divided, especially academy members. There is no reason to attack me for having a different opinion. Nobody is right or wrong when speculating about the Oscars!

    I would love love love it if In the Heights were nominated for Best Picture but I don’t think it will happen at all ):

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204490187

    It is not too hard to know the reasons …

    There you go! If Brits are not cool with this than perhaps they aren’t going to rally behind KStew. Would suck to see her lose to Chipmunk Make-up but one has to consider any possibile scenario.

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    crabbie
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    #1204490209

    Would suck to see her lose to Chipmunk Make-up but one has to consider any possibile scenario.

    Chastain panned film box office flop film performance won’t challenge Stewart’s frontrunner status. It was always going to be Kidman’s Lucille Ball who is playing an American sweetheart actress that would give Princess Diana a run for her money. Even then I think Stewart prevails since Kidman may not build enough buzz in time since it’s releasing so late in the season without attending any festivals.

    If Brits are not cool with this than perhaps they aren’t going to rally behind KStew

    Stewart’s biggest competition at BAFTA is Olivia Colman who is venerated by the British body. If Colman beats Stewart at BAFTA, I would be inclined to believe Stewart 100% is not winning the Oscar since Stewart needs the British bloc the most and it is a performance that should feasibly be supported by that group.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Alessandro Leri
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    in

    I just think that to win Director you need to be very competitive for Picture. At least top 3, and I don’t see it for this movie.

    Nobody’s easily winning in september lol

    The Power of the Dog and The Tragedy of Macbeth are very solid for a picture nomination. They both have a 90 score in Metacritic and the former got the screenplay price at Venice Film Festival and a 3d place at Toronto Film Festival. Behind Belfast, which is the front runner for picture, there are TPOFTD and TTOM that’s why I see a fight between Campion and Coen for director with Campion to be clearly the front runner. Why should Nightmare Alley be solid for picture? It didn’t screen anywhere yet so nobody has seen it. It also may be a flop. The Power of the Dog and The Tragedy of Macbeth are certainties while Nightmare Alley is a big question mark.

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    kbc
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    #1204490224

    Stewart’s biggest competition at BAFTA is Olivia Colman who is venerated by the British body. If Colman beats Stewart at BAFTA, I would be inclined to believe Stewart 100% is not winning the Oscar since Stewart needs the British bloc the most and it is a performance that should feasibly be supported by that group.

    100% this.

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