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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 11)

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    SN
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    #1204491734

    No Time to Die will get plenty of technical nominations at BAFTA and maybe British Film, but I can’t see it getting anything above the line despite the good reviews.

    At the Oscars, it’ll probably score Original Song only, if anybody still remembers that weak song.

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    Chitanda170
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    #1204491832

    It looks like there is another candidate for best picture, the citizen Kane of marvel movies acoording to Scott Menzel

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    crabbie
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    #1204492292

    (it SHOULD’VE been catnip to me! German expressionist influences + Denzel + Frances + Joel????)

    About the German Expressionist influences Coen evokes, do you think the directing in Macbeth embodies the technique brilliantly enough for Coen to get in Director? Or would you consider the German Expressionist style to be too derivative and not original enough for Coen to get in? Your opinion on the film seems like its almost too banal in its approach to Macbeth and not bold enough to distinguish itself from other adaptations. I was really hoping for another The Lighthouse psychological German Expressionist drama.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    Stefania
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    #1204492413

    Picture:

    The Power of the Dog 
    Belfast
    Nightmare Alley
    Licorice Pizza
    Dune
    King Richard
    Don’t Look Up
    Spencer
    Passing
    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Director: Jane Campion, Paul Thomas Anderson, Guillermo Del Toro, Denis Villeneuve, Joel Coen

    Thoughts: The only true locks in picture are The Power of the Dog, Belfast and Dune (which I’ve seen and really liked). I would like to read more reviews for King Richard, but so far everyone loved it, so it’s safe-ish. I’m not 100% sure about all the others to be honest. Even with reviews I cannot determine if Spencer is in or out and Don’t Look Up might end up being too comedic (The Guardian calls it “too frothy”). The last two spots are really changing for me every few days. The Tragedy of Macbeth might make it in for the respect the industry has for Joel Coen, Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand, but I’m not sure at all. As for Director, I am betting on Branagh being snubbed in favor of Joel Coen’s Macbeth, which is ironic since the former is famous for his adaptations of Shakespeare plays.

    Alternatives in order: The Lost Daughter, West Side Story, The Humans, House of Gucci, The French Dispatch, C’mon C’mon, Being the Ricardos, Parallel Mothers, The Hand of God.

     

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    George Ehret
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    #1204492486

    It seems as though The Humans is going to theatres and Showtime on the same day… fuck

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    Stefania
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    #1204492558

    So it’s not eligible at all? What a dumb decision is that?

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1204492709

    Apart from screenplay I don’t see any other category in which Belfast could win an Oscar. It could be nominated for director, supporting actress, cinematography, Screenplay and editing but it can olny win screenplay. It will be impossible for this movie to win picture if The Power of the Dog wins director, adapted screenplay and supporting actress. In that case, with those three wins, The Power of the Dog is easily winning picture. If TPOFD lose one of those three categories it will be adapted screenplay because The Tragedy of Macbeth is a real threat there. What do you think guys? How could Belfast wins picture? In which categories could it be rewarded other than screenplay?

    Why wouldn’t Belfast beat TPOTD in Supporting Actress if Balfe does indeed goes supporting? Balfe has winning raves while Dunst’s own reviews aren’t on par. Original + Supporting Actress is a winning combo right there. Plus it can take cinematography if Mank could usurp Nomadland. It will also play better on the preferential ballot than TPOTD will since audiences preferred it (hence why it beat TPOTD at TIFF). Of course, the actual scenario of TPOTD winning Director, Adapted, and Supporting Actress would surely get it a win, there is no question. But it’s not locked for any of those either.

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    H. H.
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    Dec 11th, 2017
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    #1204492716

    Why wouldn’t Belfast beat TPOTD in Supporting Actress if Balfe does indeed goes supporting? Balfe has winning raves while Dunst’s own reviews aren’t on par. Original + Supporting Actress is a winning combo right there. Plus it can take cinematography if Mank could usurp Nomadland. It will also play better on the preferential ballot than TPOTD will since audiences preferred it (hence why it beat TPOTD at TIFF).

    I mean she has good reviews but winning raves?? She’s not that undeniable.

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1204492721

    She has good reviews but not winning raves though.

    But she does… Everyone who saw said that if she goes supporting, she will probably win and is win-worthy.

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    H. H.
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    #1204492726

    But she does… Everyone who saw said that if she goes supporting, she will probably win and is win-worthy.

    Who? Pundits?

    The reviews from critics are good but not undeniable.

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    DanC
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    #1204492730

    It looks like there is another candidate for best picture, the citizen Kane of marvel movies acoording to Scott Menzel https://twitter.com/ScottDMenzel/status/1443049908106194947

    Not me thinking this was going to be Eternals lol.

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1204492732

    Who? Pundits?

    The reviews from critics are good but not undeniable.

    Erm everyone that I know that also watched said it as well. And most reviews claim that she’s the standout. IndieWire’s pan even praised her. Her reviews aren’t undeniable, but they are great and far better than Dunst’s.

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    M
    Joined:
    Sep 27th, 2017
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    #1204492738

    Do reviews even matter that much at this point. Like after ASIB I’m not taking them too seriously anymore. 88 average score from 60+ publications, and then it translates to 0 wins outside of few Gaga awards. Instead a panned movie (Bohemian Rhapsody) creates the surprise.

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    H. H.
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    #1204492740

    Erm everyone that I know that also watched said it as well. And most reviews claim that she’s the standout. IndieWire’s pan even praised her. Her reviews aren’t undeniable, but they are great and far better than Dunst’s.

    I mean the standout doesn’t necessarily mean winning raves. Again the reviews are good. I’ve seen better.

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    H. H.
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    #1204492745

    Do reviews even matter that much at this point. Like after ASIB I’m not taking them too seriously anymore. 88 average score from 60+ publications, and then it translates to 0 wins outside of few Gaga awards. Instead a panned movie (Bohemian Rhapsody) creates the surprise.

    These comparisons with Bohemian Rhapsody never work. That’s a special case that doesn’t apply to any other film.

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