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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 11)

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1204492751

    I mean the standout doesn’t necessarily mean winning raves. Again the reviews are good. I’ve seen better.

    I’m saying that I’ve seen people say she’s win worthy. That constitutes winning reviews. Obviously there have been people with better reviews, she isn’t giving a once in a lifetime performance. I don’t really think it’s that hard to understand. The willfully obtuse.

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    H. H.
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    #1204492759

    I’m saying that I’ve seen people say she’s win worthy. That constitutes winning reviews. Obviously there have been people with better reviews, she isn’t giving a once in a lifetime performance. I don’t really think it’s that hard to understand. The willfully obtuse.

    So she has winning raves from some random people and that constitutes winning reviews? Ok…

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    kaziz
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    #1204492761

    Erm everyone that I know that also watched said it as well. And most reviews claim that she’s the standout. IndieWire’s pan even praised her. Her reviews aren’t undeniable, but they are great and far better than Dunst’s.

    Maybe she’d win yeah, but it’s hard to compare a case of many more mixed reviews for a 75MC film saying “she’s the best in the film” to a universally raved film with a 91MC which contends “everyone is brilliant, including Dunst”. It’s kind of…..hard to compare those frankly. Having seen the films, Balfe has a frothier role. I really admired her for what she did because I didn’t like the film, and she made it BETTER, but if I put her as a winner on my ballot it would be based on her charm, not because her role or character is memorable anywhere near the way Rose Gordon is.

    But regardless of reviews and the comparison which….ehhhh it’s hard, apples and oranges almost…yeah she can win, she’s in the other frontrunner! I don’t think she will even move to supporting though because I think she’d get into lead. At this point, if even I’d put her on my ballot regardless of category, I really think she will be FINE to get in lead. She just won’t win. And it’s not as if Dunst is her only competition anyway. Negga, internal competition from Dench, Dowd/Plimpton, Ellis, Buckley/Johnson, Mara/Collette aren’t exactly insubstantial factors. It’s hard in both categories.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    veronikavoss
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    Jul 28th, 2011
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    #1204492769

    If Belfast is truly a BP contender then of course Balfe can win Supporting. Lead, I’d be much more skeptical.

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1204492781

    So she has winning raves from some random people and that constitutes winning reviews? Ok…

    From reviews, pundits, and people that have watched and acclaimed and said as such, yes… Again obtuse and annoying for no reason. Glad we had this conversation.

    Maybe she’d win yeah, but it’s hard to compare a case of many more mixed reviews for a 75MC film saying “she’s the best in the film” to a universally raved film with a 91MC which contends “everyone is brilliant, including Dunst”. It’s kind of…..hard to compare those frankly. Having seen the films, Balfe has a frothier role. I really admired her for what she did because I didn’t like the film, and she made it BETTER, but if I put her as a winner on my ballot it would be based on her charm, not because her role or character is memorable anywhere near the way Rose Gordon is.

    But regardless of reviews and the comparison which….ehhhh it’s hard, apples and oranges almost…yeah she can win, she’s in the other frontrunner! I don’t think she will even move to supporting though because I think she’d get into lead. At this point, if even I’d put her on my ballot regardless of category, I really think she will be FINE to get in lead. She just won’t win. And it’s not as if Dunst is her only competition anyway. Negga, internal competition from Dench, Dowd/Plimpton, Ellis, Buckley/Johnson, Mara/Collette aren’t exactly insubstantial factors. It’s hard in both categories.

    I’m not saying that Balfe’s role is better, but I have seen more passion from people regarding her than Dunst outside of forum people. Of course Dunst can win, but if Balfe is in supporting, then I would probably predict her since she’s in the more traditional bait and in the more audience friendly film. But that’s between those two. Enter the others into the scenario and it would be a different conversation. Now if she were lead, I agree, she would be at max nominated and beyond filler.

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    kaziz
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    #1204492789

    About the German Expressionist influences Coen evokes, do you think the directing in Macbeth embodies the technique brilliantly enough for Coen to get in Director? Or would you consider the German Expressionist style to be too derivative and not original enough for Coen to get in? Your opinion on the film seems like its almost too banal in its approach to Macbeth and not bold enough to distinguish itself from other adaptations. I was really hoping for another The Lighthouse psychological German Expressionist drama.

    OK here’s where I admit right off the bat that I didn’t LOVE The Lighthouse or anything. I definitely thought it was self-indulgent too, it was nowhere near The VVitch in terms of its impact on me, but I appreciated it enough because it was….original. Maybe that means you’d love Tragedy, I dunno? But for me, it was definitely beautiful enough, it looks and sounds like a German expressionist drama but it’s…so stale, it’s not original, it fails to make a sufficient case for why it’s there, and stylistically no film needs an ironclad REASON for its influences but German expressionist influences are heavy-handed, they’re heavy on the “Hey WE’RE DOING SYMBOLISM!!!” and with material with this it makes a viewer like me be like “oh ffs, what is the POINT of all this? Why are we slapping all this on Macbeth?

    I mean, this is just me! I’m a cinephile, and I love the German Expressionist masters, but I don’t uniformly love art films, I DO think they often overplay their hand. Moonlight is a film with LOT of cinematic influences, but you get swept up in the story—maybe it’s a bad comparison to make, but Barry Jenkins is a VERY cinephile-friendly director so I think it’s fair. Beale Street >>> Tragedy of Macbeth—the former had plenty of high-art influences too!

    TL;DR: It’s stagey and annoying for me, but it is BEAUTIFUL. No, I don’t think Coen deserves to get into Director. He might, but I suspect when the film comes out people will be a little let down. It’s hard for me to feel much of anything (except for Denzel!)

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    H. H.
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    #1204492816

    From reviews, pundits, and people that have watched and acclaimed and said as such, yes… Again obtuse and annoying for no reason. Glad we had this conversation.

    Again, no. Those reviews are good enough to warrant a nomination. I’ve seen better reviews and more praise for performances that aren’t even considered for a win. And I wish people wouldn’t put so much stock in what pundits say. They are easily manipulated by studios for awards. Glad we had this conversation too, kisses.

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    Alessandro Leri
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    Sep 19th, 2021
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    #1204492893

    I wonder which categories Belfast could win in order to win best picture. I really can’t see anything other than screenplay. Acting categories are going to W. Smith, K. Stewart, Dunst and Cooper. Branagh if ever gets nominated for director has at least two names above him. Well, I see Belfast winning in editing and cinematography which could lead it to a picture win. Screenplay, editing and cinematography would be ok to assure a win for best picture.

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204492903

    So I’m going to the Centerpiece premiere of TPOTD this Friday and just found out that it features “an extended intro”. HUH?!?!?

    Also: Cumberbatch, Campion, Dunst will all be there for a Q&A so YAY I’m excited!

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    George Ehret
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    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    #1204492962

    So is there official confirmation that The Humans is ineligible or that Showtime is pushing it for the Emmys instead?

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    Stefania
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    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204492978

    So is there official confirmation that The Humans is ineligible or that Showtime is pushing it for the Emmys instead?

    Isn’t “Dune” also released on streaming the same day and it’s eligible? What’s the difference? Is Showtime streaming or a linear channel?

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    Richie Rich
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    Aug 6th, 2021
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    #1204492982

    So is there official confirmation that The Humans is ineligible or that Showtime is pushing it for the Emmys instead?

    I still don’t understand how an A24 movie ended up on Showtime?? I’ve never been this confused. It’s not like a Searchlight movie ending up on Hulu, this just makes no sense whatsoever.

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    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204493074

    So is there official confirmation that The Humans is ineligible or that Showtime is pushing it for the Emmys instead?

    Streaming and television films are eligible again like last year.

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204493136

    and just found out that it features “an extended intro”. HUH?!?!?

    Do share in the dms what the extended intro entails when you see it!

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    JV
    Joined:
    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204493143

    Isn’t “Dune” also released on streaming the same day and it’s eligible? What’s the difference? Is Showtime streaming or a linear channel?

    Streaming and television films are eligible again like last year.

     

    Showtime is a cable TV channel. It’s different from PVOD, HBO Max, etc. I think it will end up being eligible anyway.

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