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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 11)

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204499205

    I can’t deal with this Netflix bias BS anymore honestly. It’s like people literally have no clue that every streamer is in the game and there’s two other streamers that have been at the forefront of the industry’s ire this year. Whatever…you guys do what you wanna do.

    TPOTD had a SAG screening in NYC tonight 🙂

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Rachel615
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    Sep 20th, 2018
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    #1204499212

    but Roma lost only a few short years ago

    Time will tell. I was going to say that Roma lost a lifetime ago, but actually, it lost five million lifetimes ago if you count how many have died of COVID since Roma lost Best Picture. Scorsese and Spielberg have changed their views and even Christopher Nolan is talking to Netflix. See https://www.google.com/amp/s/decider.com/2021/07/28/netflix-has-had-ongoing-conversations-with-christopher-nolan/amp/

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    H. H.
    Joined:
    Dec 11th, 2017
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    #1204499222

    I also believe the mood due to the pandemic and the huge hit movie theaters and the entertainment industry took due to it might mean we are in for another crowd-pleasing winner a la Green Book or The King’s Speech. TPOTD, Passing, and The Lost Daughter all seem to be a bit darker and cerebral, which means Netflix isn’t providing the feel-good type of nominee that gets in due to the expanded category.

    Makes sense. Like last season when a traditional and entertaining crowd-pleaser won instead of Chloe Zhao’s elegiac and experimental movie.

     

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    kaziz
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    #1204499242

    Makes sense. Like last season when a traditional and entertaining crowd-pleaser won instead of Chloe Zhao’s elegiac and experimental movie.

    And people dinged it with exactly the same logic as TPOTD. Somebody linked to Steve Pond’s assessment of the race but a quote is pertinent here

    “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
    One of the critical favorites of the year so far, Jane Campion’s film is a subtle and complex look at masculinity in the American West. There may be some questions about whether it can connect with mainstream voters, but there were the same questions about “Nomadland” last year, and it won.

    FYI — he was much more categorically skeptical of Spencer, Red Rocket, Tragedy of Macbeth, The Lost Daughter on the same grounds, and TPOTD is one of 3 safe bets so….you can infer that he thinks it’ll appeal more than those films & it’s more comparable to Nomadland.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204499248

    I dunno why people dinging TPOTD still keep using the same arguments (Netflix bias, not crowdpleaser) that has been thoroughly refuted by many of us om here.

    Like… how do you get around the fact that it’s still the most critically acclaimed contender? Even Tragedy of Macbeth‘s MC went down to 88 and it just premiered. The apparent frontrunner is not only at 75 MC but it also won an award it was always supposed to win & TPOTD still placed as a runner-up. I mean, I just think there’s some… going with pundit-herd-mentality going on here. Belfast is by no means a strong frontrunner, hell even its RT score of 78% (RT counts many pundits as well) is way lower than TPOTD’s 93%.

    At this point I honestly just wonder: if critical response isn’t that much of a factor for you, then it even makes more sense for Dune to be your presumed frontrunner. It’s going to make a whole lot more money, we know that. It’s a sure thing with
    almost all the techs, unlike Belfast/TPOTD/King Richard. So if you really can’t get behind TPOTD as the frontrunner, honestly…… why aren’t we hearing more arguments for Dune? It checks all the boxes on those same terms!

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204499264

    Nobody is more obsessed with populist “crowdpleaser” winning Best Picture than Goldderby users. The Academy in the past 2 years have been shifting towards high-brow auteur films with Parasite sweeping and Nomadland winning.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204499271

    Nobody is more obsessed with populist “crowdpleaser” winning Best Picture than Goldderby users. The Academy in the past 2 years have been shifting towards high-brow auteur films with Parasite sweeping and Nomadland winning.

    Yeah! Technically, barring the general welcoming of genre films & international films, it’s actually kinda…..going back to the times when Oscar winners were almost always NOT populist, were auteur-driven. AMPAS changing has made it more open to better films in any genre yes, somewhat regardless of populist appeal (Mad Max: Fury Road, Get Out, Black Panther were v well reviewed!) But they’re definitely skewing more back to the more challenging, visionary films it’s historically been kinda…famous/infamous for rewarding. Clearly expanding and diversifying has only aligned more with critical acclaim.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Babylonian
    Joined:
    Aug 16th, 2021
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    Posts:
    #1204499279

    Makes sense. Like last season when a traditional and entertaining crowd-pleaser won instead of Chloe Zhao’s elegiac and experimental movie.

    How many crowd-pleasers were even released in that eligibility period though? The 2021 Oscars is not a good comparison for this year.

    Profile picture
    Babylonian
    Joined:
    Aug 16th, 2021
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    #1204499281

    I dunno why people dinging TPOTD still keep using the same arguments (Netflix bias, not crowdpleaser) that has been thoroughly refuted by many of us om here. Like… how do you get around the fact that it’s still the most critically acclaimed contender? Even Tragedy of Macbeth‘s MC went down to 88 and it just premiered. The apparent frontrunner is not only at 75 MC but it also won an award it was always supposed to win & TPOTD still placed as a runner-up. I mean, I just think there’s some… going with pundit-herd-mentality going on here. Belfast is by no means a strong frontrunner, hell even its RT score of 78% (RT counts many pundits as well) is way lower than TPOTD’s 93%. At this point I honestly just wonder: if critical response isn’t that much of a factor for you, then it even makes more sense for Dune to be your presumed frontrunner. It’s going to make a whole lot more money, we know that. It’s a sure thing with almost all the techs, unlike Belfast/TPOTD/King Richard. So if you really can’t get behind TPOTD as the frontrunner, honestly…… why aren’t we hearing more arguments for Dune? It checks all the boxes on those same terms!

    Netflix has spent how much on campaigning their films? And won how many above the line Oscars?

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    Babylonian
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    Aug 16th, 2021
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    #1204499284

    FYI — he was much more categorically skeptical of Spencer, Red Rocket, Tragedy of Macbeth, The Lost Daughter on the same grounds, and TPOTD is one of 3 safe bets so….you can infer that he thinks it’ll appeal more than those films & it’s more comparable to Nomadland.

    What was the box office hit/crowd pleaser released in 2021 to give Nomadland a run for its money? You see why this Oscars isn’t a good case study for most years?

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204499286

    Netflix has spent how much on campaigning their films? And won how many above the line Oscars?

    How many years have they been in contention? 3. How many of those years had an undeniable BP winner that swept? 1 (Nomadland). And if 1917, Once Upon A Time…, etc couldn’t beat a NEON film (Parasite) neither could The Irishman.

    So…..your sample size is 2 at best, and that’s the whole thing you’re basing this on, amidst a pandemic where there are more studios with streamers than I can remember and Warner Bros/HBO Max/Disney have been roiled in controversy regarding their theatrical releases……….. but somehow, Netflix i.e. the streamer basically everyone in Hollywood works with is the one streamer for whom there is a bias. Quite literally this entire spiel has been discussed to death even in the short time you’ve been on GD — there may have once been a Netflix bias, but…….. things changed drastically.

    Even on a statistical level, you’re basing this whole thing on a grand total of 3 years, 1 of which had a sweep from a film that was always gonna win no matter what. 🤷🏽‍♂️

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Babylonian
    Joined:
    Aug 16th, 2021
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    Posts:
    #1204499295

    How many years have they been in contention? 3. How many of those years had an undeniable BP winner that swept? 1, but if 1917, Once Upon A Time…, etc couldn’t beat a NEON film, neither could The Irishman. So…..your sample size is 2 at best, and that’s the whole thing you’re basing this on, amidst a pandemic where there are more studios with streamers than I can remember and Warner Bros/HBO Max/Disney have been roiled in controversy regarding their theatrical releases……….. but somehow, Netflix i.e. the streamer basically everyone in Hollywood works with is the one streamer for whom there is a bias. Quite literally this entire spiel has been discussed to death even in the short time you’ve been on GD — there may have once been a Netflix bias, but…….. things changed drastically.

    Maybe so. Maybe multiple paradigm shifts have occurred. Mudbound couldn’t win. Roma couldn’t win. Marriage Story couldn’t win. The Irishman couldn’t win. There’s a decent sample size showing the Netflix nominees flopping at the Oscars. Nothing about TPOTD is vastly different from other Netflix Oscar hopefuls besides critical acclaim, which isn’t always a factor in best picture.

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    kaziz
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    #1204499297

    What was the box office hit/crowd pleaser released in 2021 to give Nomadland a run for its money? You see why this Oscars isn’t a good case study for most years?

    If you’re trying to say Nomadland wouldn’t have won in a normal year that’s a weird stretch. There were plenty of “crowd-pleasers”, AMPAS has simply shifted to not caring that much — and when they do, it was films like…Minari lol.

    Seriously, keep up with the times dammit

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

    Profile picture
    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204499300

    Maybe so. Maybe multiple paradigm shifts have occurred. Mudbound couldn’t win. Roma couldn’t win. Marriage Story couldn’t win. The Irishman couldn’t win. There’s a decent sample size showing the Netflix nominees flipping at the Oscars. Nothing about TPOTD is vastly different from other Netflix Oscar hopefuls besides critical acclaim, which isn’t always a factor in best picture.

    Wow this is such a fantastic NON-ANSWER that I am truly mind-boggled. Hey hitch your wagon to the anti-Netflix train, do what you want, it’s created it’s monopoly and is in many ways…inevitable, unless you have some scoop on the company crashing. You do you.

    MUDBOUND? Really?? Netflix has had only one frontrunner — Roma, and another maaaaaaybe close one — The Irishman. Stop naming films that wouldn’t have made it regardless of where they were from. Collecting NOMINATIONS has clearly been zero problem for Netflix.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

    Profile picture
    Babylonian
    Joined:
    Aug 16th, 2021
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    Posts:
    #1204499302

    If you’re trying to say Nomadland wouldn’t have won in a normal year that’s a weird stretch. There were plenty of “crowd-pleasers”, AMPAS has simply shifted to not caring that much — and when they do, it was films like…Minari lol. Seriously, keep up with the times dammit

    I don’t have a crystal ball so no one could predict what would happen in a timeline without Covid, but if Nomadland only had one “crowd pleaser” to contend with it’s not a valid comparison to TPOTD which has multiple strikes against it, and no actor on the level of Frances who is beloved by the Academy.

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