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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 11)

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    kaziz
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    #1204499307

    I don’t have a crystal ball so no one could predict what would happen in a timeline without Covid, but if Nomadland only had one “crowd pleaser” to contend with it’s not a valid comparison to TPOTD which has multiple strikes against it, and no actor on the level of Frances who is beloved by the Academy.

    💀😂🤪💀

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    nevkm
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    Jan 3rd, 2018
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    #1204499309

    Makes sense. Like last season when a traditional and entertaining crowd-pleaser won instead of Chloe Zhao’s elegiac and experimental movie.

    And the runner-up was most probably that movie dealing with dementia or the one about rape culture. Like yeah…

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    Babylonian
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    #1204499311

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    Sep 24th, 2021
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    #1204499313

    Look at the MC scores of best picture winners. Apart from the exemption of Green Book, AMPAS has gone with films of over 86% since preferential ballot. Only TPOTD & Macbeth in that league at the moment.

    Coming runner up in TIFF audience award kind of kills the “TPOTD” is not a crowd pleaser” argument.

    I also that a Montana-set western with established stars us much more accessible than a black & white foreign film (Roma) so Roma’s failure to win BD but not BP doesn’t necessarily apply here.

    I still think Netflix is a barrier but they are a campaigning behemoth that will throw everything at this. Winning their first best picture would be revolutionary for them and screening at the festivals, and having screenings for groups such as SAG will reinforce that this is a big cinema movie.

     

     

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    kaziz
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    #1204499315

    I don’t understand why people can’t just make arguments for why their fave films CAN win as opposed to going to spurious and gonzo lengths to argue that something else DEFINITELY CANNOT for reasons totally unrelated to the actual quality of the film. If you can’t argue on quality, you’re in trouble.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204499318

    OK thank you for giving us all the context we need as to why you’re not even bothering to listen to simple arguments. Just stan Gucci like a normal person, Netflix doesn’t need to be your Trojan Horse.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    Sep 24th, 2021
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    #1204499322

    Nothing about TPOTD is vastly different from other Netflix Oscar hopefuls besides critical acclaim, which isn’t always a factor in best picture.

    MC scores of all BP winners in the preferential era are over 86 apart from GB on 69 so incorrect, critical acclaim is almost always a factor in best picture.

     

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    Babylonian
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    #1204499328

    The Power of The Dog is still not happening. Netflix is still a ding against it whether we like it or not, gay subject matter will never land with every member of the AMPAS even if Moonlight managed to win. The Power of the Dog just isn’t going to win. Not saying it’s bad or anything, it’s just going to have a difficult path to victory, but we know it’ll get noms, but look at how that went for The Irishman or Ma Rainey…

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    Babylonian
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    #1204499334

    MC scores of all BP winners in the preferential era are over 86 apart from GB on 69 so incorrect, critical acclaim is almost always a factor in best picture.

    Yes acclaim is a factor, but in a year after a pandemic, where movie theaters took a massive hit, and the Oscars experienced lowest ratings is pretty unprecedented and opens the door to a crowd pleaser to win.

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204499368

    but in a year after a pandemic, where movie theaters took a massive hit, and the Oscars experienced lowest ratings is pretty unprecedented and opens the door to a crowd pleaser to win.

    Nobody thinks like this except Goldderby pundits. The voting bloc of the Academy increases in diversity and international body every year so much so that they do not factor in the Oscars ratings in their Best Picture choice.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204499374

    Netflix is still a ding against it whether we like it or not, gay subject matter will never land with every member of the AMPAS even if Moonlight managed to win.

    Just throwing spaghetti against the wall hoping some of it will stick arent ya lol

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Babylonian
    Joined:
    Aug 16th, 2021
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    Posts:
    #1204499385

    Nobody thinks like this except Goldderby pundits. The voting bloc of the Academy increases in diversity and international body every year so much so that they do not factor in the Oscars ratings in their Best Picture choice.

    Oscar voters don’t care about the fact that the telecast bombed with audiences? 😂😂

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    Babylonian
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    Aug 16th, 2021
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    #1204499387

    Just throwing spaghetti against the wall hoping some of it will stick arent ya lol

    Just like Netflix can throw money at their campaigns and a Best Picture win never sticks.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    Sep 24th, 2021
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    #1204499393

    Agree with that. But you’re insisting it won’t win. I’m not insisting it will win. You can’t say at this point.

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    Rachel615
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    Sep 20th, 2018
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    #1204499410

    Look at the MC scores of best picture winners. Apart from the exemption of Green Book, AMPAS has gone with films of over 86% since preferential ballot. Only TPOTD & Macbeth in that league at the moment.

    The Lost Daughter and Flee are both at 88.

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