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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 12)

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    Alessandro Leri
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    Sep 19th, 2021
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    #1204508372

    Thanks to those who answered the questions of my surveys but you were very few so I try to ask the two questions of the survey again for those people that haven’t seen them :
    Do you prefer Aster or Eggers? And for which upcoming movie are you excited more Disappointment blvd or The Northman? I would thank you so much if you could answer me.

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    crabbie
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    #1204508375

    In the Oscars for 1987, none of the directors were Americans, as James L. Brooks and others didn’t make the cut. Bernardo Bertolucci (The Last Emperor) John Boorman (Hope and Glory) Norman Jewison (Moonstruck) Adrian Lyne (Fatal Attraction) Lasse Hallstrom (My Life as a Dog)

    Interesting. So there is a precedent for a directors lineup with no Americans. The directors branch has increasingly nominated more international auteurs in the field so it is possible the 2022 lineup will feature no Americans as well. I wouldn’t predict that though since 1987 is such an anomaly. I believe either Joel Coen or PTA will be the American representative of the director nomination.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    Vincent Figueroa
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    Jul 26th, 2021
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    #1204508379

    Thanks to those who answered the questions of my surveys but you were very few so I try to ask the two questions of the survey again for those people that haven’t seen them : Do you prefer Aster or Eggers? And for which upcoming movie are you excited more Disappointment blvd or The Northman? I would thank you so much if you could answer me.

    Most anticipated movie :The Northman

    In fact, it will be released in April right after this year’s Oscars, so the excitement and interest is even greater.

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    sarahvsmovies
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    Jun 14th, 2021
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    #1204508430

    Guys I’m doing a survey I need to ask you two easy and quick questions because there is not a specific thread for this : Do you prefer Aster or Eggers? For which upcoming movie are you excited more Disappointment blvd or The Northman? I would thank you so much if you answer me those two questions.

    Eggers, hands down, without a second thought.

    Hereditary was one of the most overrated horror films of all time. Midsommar was also overrated, but at least not just completely middling like Hereditary. I’ll die on that hill.

    The VVitch is one of the best horror films of the last decade, and I loved The Lighthouse.

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    kbc
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    #1204508455

    Just one added note on that NYT piece about the Oscar race – not a peep about The Humans, which is particularly odd since it had such a celebrated Broadway run. The reporter must really be down on its prospects.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    themisnnemesis
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    Apr 30th, 2018
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    #1204508470

    Just one added note on that NYT piece about the Oscar race – not a peep about The Humans, which is particularly odd since it had such a celebrated Broadway run. The reporter must really be down on its prospects.

    It’s strange that you only copied some parts of their take on best actor.

    Cumberbatch and Dinklage could grab two of the other spots here, but I’m curious if Joaquin Phoenix will score a nomination for the appealing “C’mon C’mon,” in which he plays a normal guy taking care of his nephew. It’s Phoenix’s follow-up to the Oscar-winning “Joker,” but the last time he played someone this warm and grounded, in Spike Jonze’s “Her,” voters overlooked him. (They prefer their Phoenix with bright plumage.)
     

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    kbc
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    #1204508474

    It’s strange that you only copied some parts of their take on best actor.

    Nothing strange about it.

    I posted the excerpts I found most interesting, and I left off most of the paywalled article as one should out of courtesy. That Cumberbatch and Dinklage are strong contenders for noms isn’t revelatory, and the same with Phoenix. (I also didn’t think the reporter’s take on Phoenix’s prospects for getting a nom was all that perceptive.)

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    kbc
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    #1204508540

    California’s famed Mill Valley Film Festival’s lineup

    Opening Night: Cyrano (MGM/UA)
    Centerpiece: C’mon C’mon (A24)
    Closing Night: The French Dispatch (Searchlight)

    Films Also Playing include

    Belfast (Focus)
    Dune (Warner Bros.)
    The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (Amazon)
    The Hand of God (Netflix)
    A Hero (Amazon)
    Jockey (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Julia (Sony Pictures Classics)
    The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
    Mothering Sunday (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Passing (Netflix)
    Petite Maman (Neon)
    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
    Red Rocket (A24)
    The Rescue (Greenwich Entertainment)
    Spencer (Neon)

    Maybe there will be a “surprise” screening – The Tender Bar? The Tragedy of Macbeth? King Richard? Flee? The Worst Person in the World? (All from studios that have films going for booster shots at the fest.) The place would be shook if one happened and it turned out to be MGM/UA’s Licorice Pizza.

    At the coming San Diego fest, The Humans, Flee and The Worst Person in the World are set to screen.

    AFI’s festival has already claimed Netflix’s Bruised and Apple’s Swan Song as world premieres – wonder what else might pop up there (Nov. 10-14). That might be after House of Gucci‘s Academy museum premiere, though I’d presume AFI would prefer it get that film as a world premiere, but maybe it’d take it as a “second run.”

    Doubt that Searchlight would have Nightmare Alley jump ahead of its Academy museum premiere (maybe around start of December).

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204508645

    Does anyone have any Gotham nomination predictions? They’ll be announced on the 21st, which is in about two weeks, and I’m interested in what everyone’s thinking. It ought to be rather interesting, seeing as how they’ve removed the Best Actor and Best Actress categories to make non-gendered Best Lead Performance and Best Supporting Performance categories.

    Bad luck for them. Unless they nominate the likes of Jennifer Hudson and Jessica Chastain (the acting categories are juried, so probably they won’t), the Lead Performance category is shaping up to be 90% male, which will lead to backlash from dumb people.

    Spencer is not eligible, Emilia Jones and Rachel Sennott might be eligible for Breakthough Actor. They don’t allow foreign movies so no Penelope Cruz, Renata Reinsve and Agathe Houselle.
    I don’t know if The Tragedy of MacBeth is eligible, since Hollywood is developing this weird tradition of not showing us their budgets.

    Olivia Colman and Tessa Thompson are likely in. Simon Rex, Cumberbatch, Clifton Collins Jr, Adam Driver (Annette), Joaquin Phoenix, etc

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204509214

    Best Director

    Jane Campion (Festival champion)

    Guillermo Del Toro (Veteran’s afterglow nomination)

    Pablo Larrain (Welcome to the club)

    Joel Coen (Passion pick)

    Denis Villeneuve (Populist pick)

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    Viridiana
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    Dec 27th, 2019
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    #1204509429

    The Academy Museum will be holding the premiere of Last Night in Soho and Belfast (like HOG and Nightmare Alley)

    Academy Museum’s Inaugural Film Premiere Will Be Focus Features’ ‘Last Night In Soho’

    I guess everyone and their mamas will use that theater now lol I totally see Spielberg and Sorkin doing it aswell

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    Sep 24th, 2021
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    #1204509517

    MC update for main contenders

    TPOTD 90

    Macbeth 88

    King Richard 77

    Dune 76

    Belfast 75

    The Last Duel 65

    Remember no film has won BP in the preferential era with MC score less than 86%, with one exception GB with 69%. Average for winners is 90%.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204509687

    Thanks to those who answered the questions of my surveys but you were very few so I try to ask the two questions of the survey again for those people that haven’t seen them :
    Do you prefer Aster or Eggers? And for which upcoming movie are you excited more Disappointment blvd or The Northman? I would thank you so much if you could answer me.

    Even as somebody who didn’t love that Hereditary‘s incredible family drama was for some reason strung along with PAIMON…I’m more excited for Disappointment Blvd. But it’s close. I just found The Lighthouse to be a bit self-indulgent so Aster edges it out for me. The VVitch and Midsommar are awesome.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204509710

    Not sure The Power of the Dog will be eligible for Gothams, because to the best of my knowledge Jane Campion isn’t a US citizen. You need 2 out of the director/producer/writer to be a US citizen to be eligible which honestly is kind of bizarre, so even though there are producers who are citizens, Campion is the writer/director…unless they’ll count Thomas Savage?

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Jacob "Oscar Boy" Boe
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    Apr 20th, 2019
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    #1204509942

     And yes, right now I believe that Reinaldo Marcus Green has a stronger chance to get DGA and Oscar noms than Pablo Larrain.

    I like your takes most of the time, but this one is not it. Consider changing it. There is no way hell get nominated. I’ll die on that hill. He is the Sorkin, the McDonagh, the Farrelly of the season. Idc if he gets nominated at DGA, CC, and BAFTA and is in the top three combined odds on GD. He just simply won’t get in. Just not gonna happen.

    Its Campion and del Toro as locks (sorry not sorry they are locks).

    Branagh and Villeneuve as very likely (almost locks, but I def can see a world in which they miss).

    With one slot up for grabs between a foreign language director, Coen, and Larrain.

    Oscars FYC:
    Belfast (Pic, Balfe, Dornan, Hinds, Screenplay)
    CODA (Kotsur, Screenplay)
    Dune (Pic, Villeneuve, Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound, VFX)
    Free Guy (VFX)
    Passing (Negga)
    The Power of the Dog (Pic, Campion, Cumberbatch, Dunst, Smit-McPhee, Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing)
    tick, tick, Boom! (Garfield)
    West Side Story (Pic, Spielberg, Zegler, DeBose, Moreno, Faist, Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume, Editing, Production Design, Sound)

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