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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 12)

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    alittle03
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    #1204500638

    Thanks for sharing. I was under the impression that Thompson gave a subtle performance. I love to hear you thought it was showy. Do you think Negga is good enough to pull off the win?

    It’s my pleasure. I think the subtle comment stems from the fact that Thompson doesn’t have a baity monologue and doesn’t have fits of anguish or anger, but compared to Negga, she is more showy (in my personal opinion). I bet it’s said that Negga’s baitier due to her accent, her blonde wig, and this one good scene she has with Thompson.

    As for the win, I’d say she’s a worthy winner and is absolutely possible, but I personally liked Dunst, for example, in The Power of the Dog more. I also think Balfe (if in supporting), Dowd (if critics push her and Bleecker Street doesn’t mess up the campaign), and Ellis could give Negga a run for her money. Make no mistake, Negga is sublime, but I feel that as of this stage in the season, more showier contenders in stronger films could keep her from the Oscar (even though Negga is deserving). But of course, it’s only October and things could change dramatically.

    FYC -
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, The Lost Daughter, Mass
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Fran Kranz
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Corey Hawkins, Jason Isaacs
    Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, Kirsten Dunst, Rebecca Ferguson, Martha Plimpton, Ann Dowd
    O. Screenplay: Spencer, Mass
    A. Screenplay: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter
    Score: Jonny Greenwood (Dog/Spencer)

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    alittle03
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    #1204500642

    I loved it, totally saw such reactions coming though, and 1000000% on Thompson/Negga. Both are brilliant, but this is Thompson’s movie… I need to think about the film more but I saw how it was pushing its audience away and I think I get why, but I need to think about it. I loved it by the end.

    Absolutely agreed. I definitely need another rewatch and more time to think about it. The ending is something I did really like about the film.

    FYC -
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, The Lost Daughter, Mass
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Fran Kranz
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Corey Hawkins, Jason Isaacs
    Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, Kirsten Dunst, Rebecca Ferguson, Martha Plimpton, Ann Dowd
    O. Screenplay: Spencer, Mass
    A. Screenplay: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter
    Score: Jonny Greenwood (Dog/Spencer)

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204500660

    It’s my pleasure. I think the subtle comment stems from the fact that Thompson doesn’t have a baity monologue and doesn’t have fits of anguish or anger, but compared to Negga, she is more showy (in my personal opinion). I bet it’s said that Negga’s baitier due to her accent, her blonde wig, and this one good scene she has with Thompson.

    As for the win, I’d say she’s a worthy winner and is absolutely possible, but I personally liked Dunst, for example, in The Power of the Dog more. I also think Balfe (if in supporting), Dowd (if critics push her and Bleecker Street doesn’t mess up the campaign), and Ellis could give Negga a run for her money. Make no mistake, Negga is sublime, but I feel that as of this stage in the season, more showier contenders in stronger films could keep her from the Oscar (even though Negga is deserving). But of course, it’s only October and things could change dramatically.

    Yeaaaaaaaaaaah I honestly can’t argue with this. It’s a much shorter film and Negga isn’t in it as much as I expected — Thompson’s got the showier AND more subtle role. This isn’t Oscar bait by any means. I think Negga gets some early, awesome lines when she’s first introduced but Thompson reasserts control over the film and doesn’t let go really.

    I think Thompson has a few baity moments and sequences. Both deserve to get in, but Thompson totally ran away with it for me. It’s the sort of performance that can easily get snubbed and for years we’ll be saying “Thompson deserved her first nod for Passing”. She’s excellent, I don’t think Negga’s baitier or showier per se, she’s funny… in the beginning. And she’s lovely, but yeah I think I Dunst’s feat is greater (I did NOT expect to think this fyi — y’all know I was stanning both Thompson & Negga).

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204500669

    It’s been released in the majority of the main markets. Stop denying the flop this is and Stop being so triggered.

    LOL it wasn’t even released in the two major markets on planet (US and China), besides UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Mexico, Brazil…

    You’re PRESSED.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
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    #1204500680

    Absolutely agreed. I definitely need another rewatch and more time to think about it. The ending is something I did really like about the film.

    Yeah….

    The thing I guess is that we have a trifecta of films (TPOTD, The Lost Daughter, Passing) ALL from female directors that are ALL daring, ALL from underrated literary classics, ALL from Netflix but perhaps most importantly…. they’re all very against emotional manipulation of any kind. We’re not told who to sympathize with or why or when which is why they all require some effort on the audience’s part. It’s not that they’re inaccessible at all or that they’re too ambiguous, it’s that they all rely on the audience relying on their own feelings rather than handing it to them.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kbc
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    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204500793

    Yet another Anne Thompson GD predix update – this one for all categories. It appears as if my guess that she was going to add Cruz and Washington was on point, though no McDormand in lead actress. Still refraining from adding Balfe or Dornan in lead – and I’m still thinking she’s waiting for GD to add them to the supporting options.

    Current tally among the Top 8 categories:

    The Power of the Dog
    (6 noms)
    King Richard (5)
    Belfast (4)
    Parallel Mothers (4)
    Cyrano (3)
    Dune (3)
    Spencer (3)
    The Tragedy of Macbeth (3)
    CODA (2)
    A Hero (2)
    The Lost Daughter (2)
    Passing (2)
    The Eyes of Tammy Faye (1)
    In the Heights (1)
    Jockey (1)
    Mass (1)
    No Time to Die (1)
    Respect (1)

    BP: TPOTD/Dune/Belfast/KR/TTOB/Spencer/Coda/Cyrano/Parallel Mothers/No Time to Die
    BD: Campion/Villeneuve/Branagh/Almodovar/Farhadi
    Actor: Smith/Cumberbatch/Washington/Dinklage/Collins Jr.
    Actress: Stewart/Chastain/Cruz/Hudson/Colman
    SupActor: KSM/Hinds/Bernthal/Hawkins/Mendelsohn
    SupActress: Ellis/Merediz/Dunst/Dowd/Negga
    OrigScr: Parallel Mothers/A Hero/Belfast/KR/Spencer
    AdapScr: TPOTD/Coda/Dune/Passing/Lost Daughter

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204500832

    Passing is gonna hit all the right categories at the Indie Spirits, I’ll say that much. Tessa may even win there. She’s that good, the film is excellent imo and I dooooooon’t know if we’re expecting new reviews for it but yeah it’s really artsy and alienating (by design — I respect the hell out of that decision). Honestly I think it might be a masterpiece? I’m not sure yet, but yeah this is probably the most outre of the contenders I’ve seen this year. Tragedy of Macbeth left me very cold and is more alienating than it should be, and Spencer supposedly is alienating too. Overall, with Passing, I don’t know…what’s going to happen with it which is fitting because audiences didn’t know what to do with the book for decades and decades.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kbc
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204500843

    Passing is gonna hit all the right categories at the Indie Spirits, I’ll say that much. Tessa may even win there. She’s that good, the film is excellent imo and I dooooooon’t know if we’re expecting new reviews for it but yeah it’s really artsy and alienating (by design — I respect the hell out of that decision). Honestly I think it might be a masterpiece? I’m not sure yet, but yeah this is probably the most outre of the contenders I’ve seen this year. Tragedy of Macbeth left me very cold and is more alienating than it should be, and Spencer supposedly is alienating too. Overall, with Passing, I don’t know…what’s going to happen with it which is fitting because audiences didn’t know what to do with the book for decades and decades.

    Interesting that Thompson doesn’t have Thompson in her GD predix right now, then…

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    Alessandro Leri
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    Sep 19th, 2021
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    #1204500892

    This year seems to miss a movie with a relevant social theme such as Green Book in 2018, Parasite in 2019 or Nomadland in 2020. The ones that more fits that features probably are Belfast and The Power of the Dog. That’s why I expect one of them to win picture. While I think that D. Washington is becoming a real threat for W. Smith but I see Smith still slightly above Washington. I think Stewart is safely above McDormand because she has to wait to reach K. Hepburn they won’t give her her fourth oscar so soon.

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    Elsa Korr
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    Oct 16th, 2020
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    #1204500894

    Not related but does IMDBPro/TMDB are trustworthy when it comes to reporting budget of a movie? Because months ago I saw The Last Duel has 200M+ Budget in IMDBPro or Canterbury Glass has similar amount of budget according to those sources

    FYC:
    Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
    Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
    Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
    Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins

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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204500896

    This year seems to miss a movie with a relevant social theme such as Green Book in 2018, Parasite in 2019 or Nomadland in 2020. The ones that more fits that features probably are Belfast and The Power of the Dog. That’s why I expect one of them to win picture. While I think that D. Washington is becoming a real threat for W. Smith but I see Smith still slightly above Washington. I think Stewart is safely above McDormand because she has to wait to reach K. Hepburn they won’t give her her fourth oscar so soon.

    Last Night in Soho underperforms, sadly and I’m not sure whether Titane will make it in.

    FYC:
    Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
    Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
    Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
    Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins

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    Vincent Figueroa
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    Jul 26th, 2021
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    #1204500903

    4 Oscars  – Dune-   ( Visual Effects, Sound, Costume Design, Production Design)

    3 Oscars- Power of Dog ( Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay)

    3 Oscars   Belfast  (  Original Song,  Film Editing, Cinematography)

    2 Oscars  Spencer (  Actress, Original Score)

    2 Oscars  Licorice Pizza  ( Original Screenplay ,  Supporting Actor)

    1 Oscar  House of Guccy  (  Makeup and Hairystiling)

    1 Oscar   Passing ( Supporting Actress)

    1 Oscar   Tragedy of Macbeth ( Actor)

    1 Oscar    Flee  ( Animated Feature)

    1  Oscar  Worst Person in the World  (  International Feature)

    My personal bet

    ….

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    sarahvsmovies
    Joined:
    Jun 14th, 2021
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    #1204500969

    It’s been released in the majority of the main markets. Stop denying the flop this is and Stop being so triggered.

    Why set yourself up like this lmao

    Passing is gonna hit all the right categories at the Indie Spirits, I’ll say that much. Tessa may even win there. She’s that good, the film is excellent imo and I dooooooon’t know if we’re expecting new reviews for it but yeah it’s really artsy and alienating (by design — I respect the hell out of that decision). Honestly I think it might be a masterpiece? I’m not sure yet, but yeah this is probably the most outre of the contenders I’ve seen this year. Tragedy of Macbeth left me very cold and is more alienating than it should be, and Spencer supposedly is alienating too. Overall, with Passing, I don’t know…what’s going to happen with it which is fitting because audiences didn’t know what to do with the book for decades and decades.

    Sounds like my personal brand of film of the year…a great auteur piece that will ultimately be snubbed in multiple categories I will carry a grudge about for years.

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    Stefania
    Joined:
    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204501001

     really artsy and alienating (by design — I respect the hell out of that decision) 

    That could be said of “Dune” as well, but in a veeeery different way of course.

    Anyway, “artsy” I expected of “Passing” but “alienating” not so much, but after reading a few LB reviews I think that maybe the “unreliable narrator” and ambiguity in the book does not come up as strongly or in the right ways in the movie, which is what I feared. They say things like  “it leaves too many threads hanging” or “I just don’t know what I’m supposed to be feeling right now”, which does not usually happen when you read a novel, maybe because you have more time to think about ambiguity, what is left unsaid, POV and so on.

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    Qoslca
    Joined:
    Oct 19th, 2018
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    #1204501145

    A quote from Aaron Sorkin in a recent Vanity Fair article regarding the status of Being the Ricardos:

    Along with Mockingbird, you’ve been busy editing Being the Ricardos. Where are you at with it?

    Right this minute, in London at Abbey Road Studios, they are recording the last bits of score. And then we have the sound mix and the color timing. Those are things that take a couple of weeks. So we do all that, we’ll be finished. We’ve rounded third. We’re heading for home.

    My username is an acronym of “Quiet On Set! Lights, Camera, Action.” 🎥

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