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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 12)

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    FilmLover44
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    #1204522118

    Watched both The Power of the Dog and Spencer and yesterday. Here are some of my thoughts:

    The Power of the Dog: Incredible. Could definitely win Best Picture. Not nearly as slow-paced as many indicated and impressive filmmaking from top to bottom. Very in line with the more artistic (and, in my opinion, more deserving) BP winners we’ve had these last 2 years. Cumberbatch, Dunst, and Smit-McPhee are all win competitive and I really do not see anyone taking Best Director from Campion. Considering Supporting Actor is not looking very competitive, and TPOTD is VERY strong, I think there’s a good possibility that Plemons could also make it. I think the following are very close to sure things: Picture, Director, Actor, Sup. Actress, Sup. Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, and Score. And I think Production Design and Sound are very likely though it wouldn’t surprise me if it misses out on either. It’s a huge threat in practically all of these categories.

    Spencer: Left me on the verge of tears. Definitely less dramatic and slower paced than the trailer made it out to be, but I loved it all the more for that. Beats TPOTD personally by a tiny margin. However, it’s definitely quite artsy in a very Neon kind of way that’ll alienate many, if that makes any sense. Considering there are far more “big” movies this year, I don’t feel very sure about it making BP or BD, though in my personal lineup, it probably would. I can confirm that Kristen Stewart is the one to beat for Best Actress. Her Diana isn’t one that’ll be remembered for the rest of awards season, but for decades and decades to come. I’m currently betting on Actress, Costume Design, Makeup/Hairstyling, and Score, though Cinematography and Production Design are very possible (the former especially), and I wouldn’t completely rule out Picture, Director or Screenplay.

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    Grand Sprites
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    #1204522172

    It definitely feels like Belfast could be like Trial of the Chicago 7: a lot of people are saying it’s the frontrunner because it seems like the kind of crowdpleaser that’s won in the past (e.g. Green Book) and its main competitor is seen as too “artsy”/”experimental”/”inaccessible”. But while Trial/Belfast may not be as polarizing as Nomadland/TPotD, there’s a dearth of passion for the film. Ultimately, Trial/Belfast is just not enough voters’ favorite of the year, whereas Nomadland/TPotD is the favorite of plenty.

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    Cordelia
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    #1204522214

    I think people are overstating how much Belfast is the frontrunner – critics groups won’t go gaga over it, and it peaked early. I doubt it.

    That having been said, I kinda have doubts over whether The Power of The Dog can win. Putting my own personal opinions aside (I was slightly underwhelmed), that movie has one big problem – Netflix. People in the industry already had backlash, and I imagine if they continue down the path of firing trans employees under dubious circumstances and defending transphobic comedy that could create some bad PR.

    The Oscars aren’t a vacuum from studio politics, and I can see something else beating The Power of the Dog given that Netflix already had some opposition (Spielberg, and others). With the cinemas reopening, I can see the Academy wanting to reward a studio movie instead of the streaming ecosystem that is seen as a threat.

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    JV
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    #1204522225

    I’m not gonna lie. I’m starting to think Flee could pull a Parasite and make history, especially looking at how all these contenders don’t feel like BP winners at all. Flee has the social relevant factor, the word of mouth, and the novelty.

    I don’t think Belfast is strong enough to hold the frontrunner status. It will win something ATL (every TIFF winner has in the past 10 years) and I’m looking at Screenplay (which I kinda doubt, tbh, because this the branch that awarded Get Out over The Shape of Water and PYW over The Trial of the Chicago 7) or Supporting Actress, but probably not Picture.

    The Power of the Dog is the most auteur piece of the year and shouldn’t be underestimated either.

    Licorice Pizza feels too… Small ? The plot feels too simple and not pretentious enough, and I still have doubts about its chances as an Oscar player. It stars two newcomers, which means they’re probably not getting nominated, and another thing is that award bodies, in general, aren’t fond of coming of age stuff.

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    wolfali
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    #1204522252

    The Power of the Dog remained the best film I saw at LFF in the end but I found Flee to be so powerful and inventive. I wouldn’t mind to see it break into Picture.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    jamon__serrano
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    #1204522287

    TPOTD is a bore.

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    crabbie
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    #1204522382

    Almost all of the pundits are behind Belfast winning Best Picture and some like Clayton Davis have Branagh winning Director. It would be quite remarkable if Belfast held on to this frontrunner status until March. Regardless, Belfast, is the early frontrunner.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    kaziz
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    #1204522393

    I’m not gonna lie. I’m starting to think Flee could pull a Parasite and make history, especially looking at how all these contenders don’t feel like BP winners at all.

    Not gonna lie, I would 100% back a win this historic. It’s the best film of the year! Flee is undeniable, but it would be TRULY historic, I mean nothing technically classified as wholly non-fictional has ever won BP, let alone an international animated doc. It would be amazing but it’s pretty hard to see its chances being as good as Parasite’s.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    pedrohf2001
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    #1204522400

    TPOTD is a bore.

    Careful. Some pathetic girls are sensitive here. They will come for you. Honestly, this year season feels like a huge bore. TPOTD, Belfast, King Richard, Cmon Cmon.

    Hope there is love for Titane. Or The Tragedy of Macbeth

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    film123
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    Sep 12th, 2021
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    #1204522409

    Kenneth Branagh shares with the audience during his Q&A for #Belfast: “I haven’t seen Roma,” referring to the comparisons of his personal film and Alfonso Cuarón’s personal portrait.

    I just know this isn’t true since he is an Academy member. Branagh is practically asking for a Best Director snub.

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    film123
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    #1204522412

    Hope there is love for Titane. Or The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Having seen Macbeth at NYFF, it really is not that unconventional when it comes to Shakespearian adaptations. Unless you count a very faithful adaptation to every detail of the play to be inspired auteur work? The shadows and the elaborate production design makes this Macbeth adaptation a technical marvel, but it really is not that unconventional. Certainly not zany enough to be grouped with Titane of all movies.

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    kaziz
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    #1204522466

    Careful. Some pathetic girls are sensitive here. They will come for you. Honestly, this year season feels like a huge bore. TPOTD, Belfast, King Richard, Cmon Cmon.

    Hope there is love for Titane. Or The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Having ALSO seen The Tragedy of Macbeth at NYFF I can honestly say……it is truly baffling that you don’t see how most people would find it far more boring than The Power of the Dog. I mean….my soap-obsessed mother watched TPOTD without my even knowing she did (at TIFF) and she couldn’t stop with the questions. Tragedy is SO cold and slow and just…I have so much difficult talking about it because honestly, it was so damn boring & stale to me, I have no idea how to phrase it without sounding like a dick: I loved Denzel (& Hunter in her limited capacity) and…that’s it? There was just so so so so so little emotional or intellectual work to do for a story I already knew!

    I do like Titane quite a bit, I also find Belfast boring mostly because I just think it’s so darn shallow, haven’t seen King Richard or C’mon C’mon but it could go either way given that I actually agree with you on some of these films, but I just don’t see how you could see Tragedy of Macbeth as some FUN unconventional thing and at the same time call TPOTD boring—it is just a freaking masterpiece with a psychosexual, twisted and tragic story with 4 absolutely fascinating characters being explored. I just don’t get how at the very least you don’t see why it’s natural people maaaaaaybe like…exploring the world of TPOTD more, thinking about it lol.

    It’s not some hugely INTELLECTUAL film, it’s purely emotional and damn is it emotional: people feel angry at the end and think back and are like “oooooooh now I get it!”, or people cry or are just astounded and tense throughout, but mostly people really do want to think about it which is…kind of exactly what a great film should be doing. I’ve been to two screenings now and after both people just talked talked talked about what was in it, it didn’t matter what they thought, they wanted to TALK about it! Even the few knee-jerk haters were like “it shouldn’t have been that way!” and actually bothered to argue. I dunno, that just all felt like a really really good sign to me. Its supporters are passionate. It felt a little like after I watched The Shape of Water at Telluride honestly.

    I loved seeing the giddiness and “WTF DID I WATCH” after Titane and the immediate gut-punch after The Lost Daughter. There was immense confusion after Passing and Tragedy of Macbeth, but people were asking questions about the former, with the latter all I heard was “omg wasn’t Denzel amazing” and the conversation petered out. With Belfast it just felt like a “hey that was good” and a bit of a collective shrug after that. It’s such a shallow movie, what is there to even talk about, I guess I was just like “damn Dornan and Balfe are SO HOT and give them more movies!!!” but that’s it……

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    lorelei lor
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    Stefania
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    #1204522548

    For those who already watched “Flee” what is it that you liked the most, apart from the subject matter being relevant?

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    deemura
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    #1204522550

    About that, what’s up with these trolls attacking TPOTD lately? So weird.

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