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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 13)

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    alittle03
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    #1204523062

    I truly do not believe Belfast is going to make as big of a splash as these awards pundits are saying it will. Hyperbolic statements that I keep seeing on Twitter, saying any other film that’s been screened so far will be hard to beat Belfast (when it’s October) are getting presumptuous, as well.

    FYC -
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, The Lost Daughter, Mass
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Fran Kranz
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Corey Hawkins, Jason Isaacs
    Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, Kirsten Dunst, Rebecca Ferguson, Martha Plimpton, Ann Dowd
    O. Screenplay: Spencer, Mass
    A. Screenplay: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter
    Score: Jonny Greenwood (Dog/Spencer)

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    kbc
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    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204523070

    Can someone please explain why the odds have Sian Heder higher than Pablo Larrain 💀😭

    “Accessibility”? 😉

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204523081

    I don’t think Disney cares enough about it at all for awards season when they have Nightmare Alley, West Side Story and French Dispatch. I do wonder what will be 20th Century Studios after all the Fox leftovers with Disney. Other than Avatar ofc. I dont think we will see it until mid 2022. I think Death On The Nile will be the last.

    Disney wanted Fox primarily because of Marvel franchises X Men and Fantastic Four. I have a feeling that they might screw over Cameron. They love franchises that sell toys but Avatar, despite almost 3B boxoffice, wasn’t a big toy seller.

    I also wager that they will campaign Eternals a lot. Perhaps not acting except to SAG as an Ensemble, but Picture (Feige wants Producer win badly) and Director will be Disney’s primary push alongside techs.

    Now, I gotta wonder what the deal is with Gucci. There was an avalanche of paparazzi photos, and then trailer did really well, and it’s crickets since. When is promo re-starting?

    TPOTD and Campion look like winners, as boring as that may be. I have a feeling belfast is deliberately overhyped by pundits as the early frontrunner to take the heat off TPOTD.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    Sep 24th, 2021
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    #1204523088

    We’ve known since forever that Oscar voters don’t watch all the films, even the main contenders. I remember all the talk regarding voters not watching 12 Years A Slave. Yes they should watch at least all the BP nominees.

    But BRANAGH having never seen ROMA?

    Not believable.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204523097

    Agreed it’s BS. He doesn’t want to comment or appear like he aped it but this is just disrespectful and unbelievable.

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    lorelei lor
    Joined:
    Dec 20th, 2017
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    #1204523101

    I truly do not believe Belfast is going to make as big of a splash as these awards pundits are saying it will. Hyperbolic statements that I keep seeing on Twitter, saying any other film that’s been screened so far will be hard to beat Belfast (when it’s October) are getting presumptuous, as well.

    Pls I’ve just seen several pundits saying on Twitter they can’t see ANYTHING beating Belfast and I’m like this lol

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204523107

    TPOTD and Campion look like winners, as boring as that may be. I have a feeling belfast is deliberately overhyped by pundits as the early frontrunner to take the heat off TPOTD.

    I doubt that Belfast is being manipulatively overhyped — it’s just that pundits’ tastes are different. And even when a given pundit likes TPOTD more, they want so hard to be Oscar bellwethers that this whole “this is the only Oscar film I’ve seen sentiment” is SO prevalent, and of course, the only real models they have for an “Oscar film” are immensely outdated :/

    Regardless, I’m so tired of one thing in particular: underestimating the impact the 49-and-counting critics groups have on the race. For every Sidney Flanigan we have a Paul Raci and they are plenty influential. It feels like this year way too many GD users are saying “obviously critics don’t matter” & “who cares if it doesn’t win critics awards” but the truth is even the more mainstream winners were big for critics (even if they weren’t #1). Not to mention, too many people think pundits are critics.

    I expect critics to not only be boosting TPOTD but the MASSIVE embarrassment of riches they have to boost: The Lost Daughter, Flee, Titane, Petite Maman, Parallel Mothers, The Hand of God, C’mon C’mon, Spencer, Passing, etc etc. This WILL happen, we know it will, & there’s no point pretending it won’t hugely impact the race.

    I’m particularly intrigued in what they’ll do with CODA and Emilia Jones, Dowd/Plimpton because I don’t understand how they’ll go for one overwhelmingly over the other, Johnson/Buckley, whether Ciaran Hinds, Caitriona Balfe, Richard Jenkins will get enough attention, whether they can actually give Mass the boost it deserves. Honestly it’s possible TPOTD also takes a hit because there ARE movies critics obviously liked almost as much or more & they’ll want to boost them.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Rachel615
    Joined:
    Sep 20th, 2018
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    #1204523111

    I have a feeling belfast is deliberately overhyped by pundits as the early frontrunner to take the heat off TPOTD.

    Yeah. Film Twitter organized a huge international Zoom meeting in which the vast majority of Oscar pundits got together and agreed that (1) they want TPOTD to win Best Picture and Best Director, (2) they think Belfast would be a great movie to take the heat off of TPOTD in the nine month or so run up to the Oscars, and (3) they collectively decided to hype Belfast to increase TPOTD’s chances.

    It was supposed to be like Fight Club….

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    loudtoilet
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    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1204523116

    believe it or not they do try to infleunce the race like that and some of them actually Zoom (Gurus). 🙂

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204523118

    Also I really wish Mass got onto a streaming service ASAP because it doesn’t need box office but it NEEDS eyeballs, so……….do that Bleecker St, you cowards. They have an arrangement with Hulu I think but usually the films pop up for streaming REALLY late. Like….right before the Oscars kinda late. Streaming gives a boost to films without huge theatrical releases, so use it dammit!

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
    Joined:
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    #1204523122

    believe it or not they do try to infleunce the race like that and some of them actually Zoom (Gurus). 🙂

    Lol. Actually you’re not totally wrong. I mean I don’t think there’s a coordinated campaign but these 15-20 major pundits actually know each other pretty well and talk to each other all the damn time on Twitter & take pictures at festivals & also… they’re usually part of the “online film critics” groups together. Still, I hardly think they’re doing some coordinated manipulation lol, they’re not TPOTD’s PR machine, many of them are just really silly and stuck in old paradigms of “Oscar bait”. I mean I have a hard time taking anyone who says “the Oscars won’t go for this” so definitively about almost any film but they’ve done it for years for films that DO get nominated lol because the collective WHOOSH of critics groups is a LOT

    They do try to influence for sure — they might be a big reason Chastain gets in e.g., but they’re just not powerful enough to make it a cake walk for her otherwise she literally WOULD be the indisputable frontrunner right now. It’s a little embarrassing how actual critics’ reviews force them to change their narratives.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204523127

    Branagh is doing heavy campaigning and taking pictures with pundits and such. Clayton Davis is the most prolific pundit and he is quite high on Belfast having it win Picture, Director, and O. Screenplay. I don’t think the Belfast hyping is that manufactured. It’s mostly charm from the film’s crew with Branagh, Dornan, Dench, and Balfe along with the general feel-good sentiments people develop after watching the movie.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    estrelas
    Joined:
    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1204523133

    Branagh is doing heavy campaigning and taking pictures with pundits and such. Clayton Davis is the most prolific pundit and he is quite high on Belfast having it win Picture, Director, and O. Screenplay. I don’t think the Belfast hyping is that manufactured. It’s mostly charm from the film’s crew with Branagh, Dornan, Dench, and Balfe along with the general feel-good sentiments people develop after watching the movie.

    Belfast is not winning Director. Branagh kinda serves Director snubee tbh.

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    jamon__serrano
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    Sep 7th, 2021
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    #1204523143

    Belfast is so winning. This season (outside of Actress, I guess) is weak.

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    loudtoilet
    Joined:
    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1204523145

    Lol. Actually you’re not totally wrong. I mean I don’t think there’s a coordinated campaign but these 15-20 major pundits actually know each other pretty well and talk to each other all the damn time on Twitter & take pictures at festivals & also… they’re usually part of the “online film critics” groups together. Still, I hardly think they’re doing some coordinated manipulation lol, they’re not TPOTD’s PR machine, many of them are just really silly and stuck in old paradigms of “Oscar bait”. I mean I have a hard time taking anyone who says “the Oscars won’t go for this” so definitively about almost any film but they’ve done it for years for films that DO get nominated lol because the collective WHOOSH of critics groups is a LOT They do try to influence for sure — they might be a big reason Chastain gets in e.g., but they’re just not powerful enough to make it a cake walk for her otherwise she literally WOULD be the indisputable frontrunner right now. It’s a little embarrassing how actual critics’ reviews force them to change their narratives.

    They love desperation don’t they? No wonder a number of them still doesn’t believe in Stewart.

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