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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 13)

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    kbc
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    From Vanity Fair’s latest take on the Oscar race.

    First a note from the writers perhaps worth, uh, noting:

    While we haven’t seen everything set to make a big play for the gold next spring, we’ve come pretty close (including a few embargoed titles that we’re not at liberty to discuss here).

    Now, a few selected morsels:

    And there is no other actor that feels as strong a front-runner as King Richard’s Will Smith for lead actor. He’s been building buzz since the film debuted, and I think it’s only going to get louder as more people see the movie. The film also has memorable supporting turns by Aunjanue Ellis and Jon Bernthal.

    I think Jane Campion, Kenneth Branagh and Reinaldo Marcus Green are on their way to directing nominations … Green is the newer entity, but I’d say the directing in King Richard is one of the reasons the film rises above being a standard sports drama.

    Look at Pablo Larraín’s Spencer, which we both know hasn’t played well to a good chunk of the industry but is a critical darling with a lot of passion behind it … Kristen Stewart’s the category front-runner right now, and [Neon] will look to steadily build support among other branches, particularly crafts and writing.

    Nightmare Alley feels like the biggest potential player to me [compared with Licorice Pizza and Don’t Look Up], not least because the director is fresh off an Oscar sweep for The Shape of Water … and the cast is stacked (I’ve heard Bradley Cooper and Cate Blanchett will get a run in the lead categories, with Toni Collette as a supporting standout).

    [Licorice Pizza‘s] Bradley Cooper and Sean Penn are among those in supporting roles, but word is they have limited screen time, which might make it a challenge for awards recognition.

    But what of [House of Gucci‘s] Oscar chances? Worth noting, this one is coming down the pike quicker than those aforementioned titles, yet remains shrouded in mystery.

    The directing branch tends to nominate at least one foreign-language contender these days, and I’d say any of those three [Asghar Farhadi, Pedro Almodóvar and Paolo Sorrentino] could be considered a decent possibility (with Farhadi, if only given his film’s reception, having the edge right now).

    ++++

    Going completely unmentioned in the VF piece – any chances for The Last Duel and Jodie Comer, The Tender Bar and Ben Affleck, Richard Jenkins, Jayne Houdyshell and The Humans, Oscar Isaac and The Card Counter, The Worst Person in the World and Renate Reinsve, Simon Rex and Red Rocket, and Jockey and Clifton Collins Jr. (yes, i’m pressed, but also a bit down – be kind pls.)

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    kbc
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    #1204533430

    Here are some choice bits from the latest NY Magazine/Vulture “Oscar Futures” fixture.

    BP predix:

    Belfast, Coda, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story

    BD Predix:

    Pedro Almodóvar, Parallel Mothers; Kenneth Branagh, Belfast; Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog; Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth; Denis Villeneuve, Dune

    No change to his predix in those two categories – the holding pattern continues until screenings of the post-fest flicks roll out.

    Best Actor:

    trending “even”: Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
    If the first look at Aaron Sorkin’s “I Love Lucy” tribute reveals anything, it’s that Javier Bardem will not exactly be disappearing into the role of Desi Arnaz. Not necessarily a bad thing, but something to monitor.
    [predix]
    Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog; Peter Dinklage, Cyrano; Simon Rex, Red Rocket; Will Smith, King Richard; Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    No change here, either, but he’s givin’ some lowkey shade to Being the Ricardos. Ditto below. I’m wanting to see some Collins here, but i’ll take the Rex.

    Best Actress:

    trending “even”: Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
    The Being the Ricardos teaser … Kidman’s Lucille Ball is seen only in flashes, with her best glimpse coming in black-and-white. Are they hiding her, or just trying to create an air of mystery?

    trending “down”: Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
    I still venture that it’s never good to be repping a flop. Comer has earned praise for her performance … but her odds of breaking into the Oscar conversation are looking almost as long as her character’s medieval braids.
    [predix]
    Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye; Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter; Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers; Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth; Kristen Stewart, Spencer

    Another unchanged list, and tough to disagree with his assessment of Comer’s chances at the moment, though of course I’d love to see her prospects brighten.

    Supporting Actor:

    trending “up”: both Troy Kotsur in CODA and LaKeith Stanfield in The Harder They Fall
    [predix]
    Jamie Dornan, Belfast; Ciarán Hinds, Belfast; Richard Jenkins, The Humans; Troy Kotsur, CODA; Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

    Supporting Actress

    trending “up”: both Rebecca Ferguson in Dune and Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter
    [predix]
    Caitriona Balfe, Belfast; Judi Dench, Belfast; Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog; Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard; Ruth Negga, Passing

    I’ve weighed in at length elsewhere about his swapping in Negga for Ann Dowd who was among his predix last week. In supporting actor, interesting to see his inclusion of Kotsur while there is the absence of the just-as-buzzed-about (if not more so) performances of co-stars Marlee Matlin (the pundit said she had the “early buzz”) or Emilia Jones in their respective categories. The writer knocked out Macbeth‘s Corey Hawkins from last week’s predix to make room for Kotsur.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    HAL 9000
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    #1204533469

    IF you want to see DUNE this weekend, I urge you to see it in a theatre because its visual and auditive awe deploy full power in that situation. And, yes, I loved it and admire it. From Del Toro. Villeneuve has received Zhao, Cuaron, and Del Toro’s blessings. Don’t see how Villeneuve will miss directing if the directing branch (Oscar winning directors I may add) has been so supportive of Dune publicly.

     

    Aronofsky just quoted Del toro agreeing with him and Nolan also interviewed Villeneuve for the DGA screening of Dune.

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    kbc
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    Pedro Almodóvar, Parallel Mothers
    Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
    Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
    Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
    Denis Villeneuve, Dune
    alt. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza or Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World or Asghar Farhadi, A Hero

    NB: I keep flipping back and forth between Trier and Farhadi – for some reason, even with the Netflix backing, I’m not feeling Sorrentino as one who can challenge Almodóvar for that non-English-language slot. (Though perhaps, as Anne Thompson currently predicts, we will have two this go-around – Almodóvar and either Trier, Sorrentino or Farhadi.)

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    Babylonian
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    #1204533482

    As far as Netflix’s contenders this year I think The Power of The Dog and The Lost Daughter are the most promising. I’m wondering if Don’t Look Up’s chances get lost in the shuffle and it becomes The Irishman of the season.

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    kbc
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    As far as Netflix’s contenders this year I think The Power of The Dog and The Lost Daughter are the most promising. I’m wondering if Don’t Look Up’s chances get lost in the shuffle and it becomes The Irishman of the season.

    Netflix’s table is overflowing, and it’ll need to clear some paths and consolidate efforts very soon. With some of their films (e.g., The Starling and The Unforgivable), it’s evident they are just along for the ride as also-rans at this point, but Don’t Look Up has clearly been positioned as a marquee year-end release for the company. Perhaps with the traffic jam of its high-visibility fest-season titles going on right now (The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog, Bruised, Tick Tick…Boom!, The Harder They Fall, Passing, The Hand of God), Netflix is waiting for all that to settle for a minute before unleashing its last big FYC promo ahead of DLU‘s Dec. 10 theatrical release.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    Thatcher, Prime Minister of GoldDerby
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    #1204533559

    Darlings, Ducournau is getting nominated. Mark my holy words.

    As a famous singer said, "ain't nobody gonna Thatcher, Thatcher, Thatcher!"

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    Stank83
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    #1204533563

    1. The Power of The Dog

    2. Belfast

    3. Don’t Look Up

    4. King Richard

    5. Dune

    6. Licorice Pizza

    7. House of Gucci

    8. The Tragedy of Macbeth

    9. The Hand of God

    10.West Side Story

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    JV
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    #1204533617

    Pedro Almodóvar, Parallel Mothers
    Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
    Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
    Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
    Denis Villeneuve, Dune
    alt. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza or Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World or Asghar Farhadi, A Hero

    NB: I keep flipping back and forth between Trier and Farhadi – for some reason, even with the Netflix backing, I’m not feeling Sorrentino as one who can challenge Almodóvar for that non-English-language slot. (Though perhaps, as Anne Thompson currently predicts, we will have two this go-around – Almodóvar and either Trier, Sorrentino or Farhadi.)

    Farhadi is not European, so I don’t think so, and A Hero got lukewarm reviews compared to A Separation and The Salesman. It’s similar to Sorrentino and The Hand of God. I was talking about Larrain because Spencer is a british film.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204533734

    Farhadi has been overrewarded enough, seriously. He’d be considered for his third Oscar? Enough

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    kbc
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    #1204533746

    Chicago Critics Film Festival unveils full lineup for the event next month.

    Among the films screening are

    Belle
    Bernstein’s Wall
    Jockey
    The Lost Daughter
    The Novice
    The Power of the Dog
    Red Rocket
    Zalava

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204533760

    Aronofsky just quoted Del toro agreeing with him and Nolan also interviewed Villeneuve for the DGA screening of Dune.

    Dune is in for Picture and Director. It’s a tech marvel that Directors admire but it’s also a very understandle story. All fears that DV wouldn’t make an accessible movie should be laid to rest. Should play very well with AMPAS who are tired of big movies with 1000 jokes. Dune is serious in tone and thoughtful but as entertaining as any blockbuster. It’s in. Done and done.

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    JV
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    #1204533785

    This race is about to get extremely toxic on internet.

    Dune: Chalamet stans

    House of Gucci: Gaga and Driver stans

    Licorice Pizza: PTA stans (they are unbearable). Alana Haim stans. Fiona Apple fans finding a way to say that the movie is about her.

    Don’t Look Up: Jennifer Lawrence stans. Chalamet stans again.

    And you add that to K-Stew hardcore stans (most of them aren’t really bad), Balfe and Dornan stans, Jessica Chastain stans (the pundits, actually).

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204533900

    Pundits love for Tammy Faye performance is baffling. It’s exactly the kind of thing that gives AMPAS wins a bad name and something that AMPAS is getting aware of. If they could pass on Davis I see no reason why they wouldn’t pass on Chastain.

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    kbc
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    #1204533998

    Pundits love for Tammy Faye performance is baffling. It’s exactly the kind of thing that gives AMPAS wins a bad name and something that AMPAS is getting aware of. If they could pass on Davis I see no reason why they wouldn’t pass on Chastain.

    It’s interesting that while the NY Mag/Vuture pundit has Jessica Chastain in his predictions, the Vanity Fair pundits didn’t even mention her in their piece – and they did discuss Jennifer Hudson, who isn’t among the Vulture pundit’s predictions. Anne Thompson still predicts both, but she took out Olivia Colman (🤷‍♂️) to make room for Jodie Comer, who is said by Vulture to having diminishing odds, and is completely ignored by VF. Meanwhile, both VF and Vulture have offered high praise of Colman. And all of them are omitting Renate Reinsve. (Grrr)

    So, the only lead actresses who currently rank highly among all three sources are Kristen Stewart and Penelope Cruz. Make of all this what you will.

    In addition, Vulture is predicting BP noms for Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley and West Side Story with no acting nominees from any, which borders on the absurd. If those three make the BP slate, odds are overwhelming they have to be bringing along acting noms.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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