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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 13)

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    Luca
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1204534080

    Forget about everything else, give this Best Picture: https://twitter.com/hamstertalk/status/1451337744836399109?t=JlVXf22ZX65PI7AgJiPv6Q&s=19

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    wolfali
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    #1204534091

    Forget about everything else, give this Best Picture: https://twitter.com/hamstertalk/status/1451337744836399109?t=JlVXf22ZX65PI7AgJiPv6Q&s=19

    The Power of the Dog and Belfast it’s time to pack your bags.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    TrumpBiden
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    Dec 22nd, 2020
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    #1204534153

    Also: how bad can Last Night in SoHo possibly be? I’m still so darn excited to see it, and will. I don’t really get the whole response to this film tbh. With Dune, it’s clear critics liked it enough and audiences loved it enough for it to happen, and most of the quibbles make sense to me. I get why it wasn’t met with universal critical praise for sure! With SoHo, I’m still a little baffled. So it goes a little nuts? Isn’t…that what a film marketed like this is supposed to do :/

    It’s crap and getting zero nominations.

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    Stefania
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    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204534396

    “With the preferential ballot, it’s not about which movie is loved the most but about which movie is hated the least”. How much do you agree or disagree with this sentence?

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    Cosmia
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    Oct 19th, 2021
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    #1204534430

    It contains a kernel of truth, but it’s more complicated. It certainly creates more of a consensus, but it doesn’t affect things as much as that implies. A lot of the time, the movie people love the most and hate the least are one and the same.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204534632

    “With the preferential ballot, it’s not about which movie is loved the most but about which movie is hated the least”. How much do you agree or disagree with this sentence?

    I’d say preferential ballot favors agreeable movie, neither passionately loved nor passionately hated. The overall liked movies. You enjoy them and respect them well enough not to feel bad about putting them high on your ballot and you hear from your peers that they like it too but not in an irritating way that would turn you off which happens with passionate stanning aka “liked the movie but stans ruined it for me so I hate it now”.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    Sep 24th, 2021
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    #1204534967

    I’m not sure what agreeable means any more. I think the anomaly of Green Book in the preferential era winning over Roma has misled people. Roma was a black & white, slow, foreign Netflix film- it had too many barriers to beat Green Book, although meta critic-wise was much like the other winners in the preferential era.

    La La Land- a very agreeable musical about LA for God’s sake was beaten by Moonlight. AMPAS is a different beast these days

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    Cosmia
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    #1204535006

    I’m generally inclined to agree with you about the Academy changing, but they could have picked The Favourite if they really didn’t want to go for Roma. The fact that Green Book won Adapted Screenplay over it made me think they just genuinely thought it was better (shudder)

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204535012

    Like if or not, it always boils down to a 2 horse race. The Favourite wasn’t in the race. A far, far better film than either of the top 2 IMO. Perhaps just too out there for AMPAS.

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    TrumpBiden
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    Dec 22nd, 2020
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    #1204535218

    I’m generally inclined to agree with you about the Academy changing, but they could have picked The Favourite if they really didn’t want to go for Roma. The fact that Green Book won Adapted Screenplay over it made me think they just genuinely thought it was better (shudder)

    Greenbook has an 8.2 IMDB score and The Favourite 7.5. The general audience and to some extent this could translate to Academy voters felt that Greenbook was the more accessible and crowd pleasing film.

    I didn’t like Greenbook, but sometimes we forget how a more accessible film wins over Academy voters. This is not always the case, but Roma was in fact like the other poster mentiond too Netflixsh, too slow, too black and white, too foreign.

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204535465

    “With the preferential ballot, it’s not about which movie is loved the most but about which movie is hated the least”. How much do you agree or disagree with this sentence?

    It seems generally true, but we don’t know in any given year:

    1. If the winner won on the first round.
    2. How many rounds it took to get to a winner
    3. How much tastes change per year
    4. To what degree a more diverse AMPAS is preventing some films from winning.

    So, because we’ll never really know the answers to these questions, I don’t think I can truly know the answer to that, but it seems somewhat true. Why? Because the sensible thing to do with so much change is to use more recent trends, but to not be too literal, because then we get arguments like “Belfast will win because Green Book did”. Tastes change, and ARE changing very rapidly!

    Basically, I think predicting Oscars as a job is just stanning lol. There’s literally no way to actually know this stuff unless you go door-to-door to poll AMPAS members, or you are in the innermost circle at PWC that deals with the ballots hah

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    loudtoilet
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    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1204535786

    Roma was boring. Parasite and Squid Game show that audience responds to foreign if they are entertained and those 2 hits were entertaining. Roma was coma.

    @kbc good to see that some pundits are coming around actress race. Thanks for the breakdown on the previous page!

     

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    TrumpBiden
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    Dec 22nd, 2020
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    #1204536057

    Roma was boring. Parasite and Squid Game show that audience responds to foreign if they are entertained and those 2 hits were entertaining. Roma was coma. @kbc good to see that some pundits are coming around actress race. Thanks for the breakdown on the previous page!

    This. I loved Roma, but I have friends that turned off that movie after 10 minutes. Meanwhile, Parasite was universally beloved. Again, accessibility.

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    Nameizmann
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    Jan 16th, 2020
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    #1204536211

    There’s no way a movie will win on the first round of voting.

    Preferential ballot all comes down to: Which movie between the Top 2 contenders did more voters prefer? (And we’ll likely know what the Top 2 contenders are from precursors.)

    More voters preferred Parasite to 1917. Green Book to Roma. Spotlight to the Revenant.

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204536315

    There’s no way a movie will win on the first round of voting.

    Mmmm, I think films like Nomadland could’ve won on the first round, but even if they didn’t winning on the 2nd round is still…pretty darn cool. Again: things we will never know! People on GD spin endless arguments about what was probably runner-up but we will all probably die before we find out unless PWC & AMPAS allows someone to write a book with all these fun tidbits decades from now.

    This. I loved Roma, but I have friends that turned off that movie after 10 minutes. Meanwhile, Parasite was universally beloved. Again, accessibility.

    Roma suffered deeeeeeeeeply from not getting a good theatrical release! I’ve said it before but I watched it TWICE at Telluride, cried my eyes out, loved it, & when it hit Netflix my friends were like “it’s….boring,” even those who really appreciated the class-turn that Cuaron made. And it kinda is on a TV!

    I know there’s plenty of people who think Nomadland and TPOTD are “boring” (Belfast too! Because…it is :/). Somehow I think TPOTD especially reels people in enough that they finish it and they find the Score etc. v impressive. It should be said that the theatre experience of TPOTD is different though. The whole SOUND-scape is louder and richer! But somehow I guess they are just propulsive enough for people watching on streaming.

    It’s funny that in a pandemic year with no theaters, films like Sound of Metal, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Father (mostly pirated?), Minari, Nomadland, MANK were all nominated. They’re all fairly slow imo, even Judas was. When I started watching it the first time I was like “OK I’m not in the right frame of mind rn, I need to watch mindless TV for a bit”, so I came back to it lol. TV habits are very different to theater habits.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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