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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 13)

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204523148

    Branagh is doing heavy campaigning and taking pictures with pundits and such. Clayton Davis is the most prolific pundit and he is quite high on Belfast having it win Picture, Director, and O. Screenplay. I don’t think the Belfast hyping is that manufactured. It’s mostly charm from the film’s crew with Branagh, Dornan, Dench, and Balfe along with the general feel-good sentiments people develop after watching the movie.

    I mean what I mean by “manufactured” is mostly that it’s pundit-driven, not critics-driven or even really audience-driven. Aside from People’s Choice all indicators point to audiences liking it just as much as TPOTD so the pundit-driven narrative is, well, flawed.

    But if people mean it’s coming out of NOWHERE then that’s just not true. Also, vvvvvvv few people have actually seen it so there’s just a lot of bandwagoning!

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Stefania
    Joined:
    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204523161

    Branagh kinda serves Director snubee tbh.

    Well, after he said that he didn’t watch “Roma” we know that the three amigos are not voting for him.

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    kaziz
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    #1204523163

    They love desperation don’t they? No wonder a number of them still doesn’t believe in Stewart.

    Oh hell yeah. I mean I’ve seen the film and the whole “every scene is Oscar bait” is SO SILLY, it doesn’t even apply to Renee Zellweger as such because even regular audiences don’t like such flagrant sentimentality and try-hard stuff anymore. I do think part of that is because we see so much of that heavy prosthetic and monologuing in TV shows now, so there’s no reason I can think of that people would unequivocally get up and just be like OMG SHE’S WINNING just bc Chastain gives a dramatic speech every 10 minutes under 5 pounds of makeup (it’s also vvv repetitive!)… yes, they’re very silly.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kaziz
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    #1204523165

    It’s mostly charm from the film’s crew with Branagh, Dornan, Dench, and Balf

    The charm is fact, but it should also be said that Campion, Dunst, Cumberbatch are in no way lacking in charm and they’re also REALLY playing the game lol

    Balfe is just RIDICULOUSLY charming though, I agree.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    George Ehret
    Joined:
    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    #1204523169

    Yeah. Film Twitter organized a huge international Zoom meeting in which the vast majority of Oscar pundits got together and agreed that (1) they want TPOTD to win Best Picture and Best Director, (2) they think Belfast would be a great movie to take the heat off of TPOTD in the nine month or so run up to the Oscars, and (3) they collectively decided to hype Belfast to increase TPOTD’s chances. It was supposed to be like Fight Club….

    I mean this as nicely as possible, but this sounds like something Alex Jones would say if he were an Oscar pundit lmao. I mean, I find it hard to believe that EVERY Oscar pundit 1. actually believes PotD definitively should win or 2. believe this strategy would actually work. They’re hypebeasts yeah, but this is too much even for them.

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    loudtoilet
    Joined:
    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1204523171

    Oh hell yeah. I mean I’ve seen the film and the whole “every scene is Oscar bait” is SO SILLY, it doesn’t even apply to Renee Zellweger as such because even regular audiences don’t like such flagrant sentimentality and try-hard stuff anymore. I do think part of that is because we see so much of that heavy prosthetic and monologuing in TV shows now, so there’s no reason I can think of that people would unequivocally get up and just be like OMG SHE’S WINNING just bc Chastain gives a dramatic speech every 10 minutes under 5 pounds of makeup (it’s also vvv repetitive!)… yes, they’re very silly.

    ha ha it seems that Chastain is under impression that she’s doing something never seen before here. Monologuing in prostehtics! Haven’t seen it since…Viola in fatsuit! Getting nekkid and having sex on HBO! Haven’t seen that since…any HBO show ever!

    Really hilarious. She does everything 30 years after someone broke the ground and thinks she’s discovered fire.

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    Chitanda170
    Joined:
    Apr 1st, 2020
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    #1204523191

    believe it or not they do try to infleunce the race like that and some of them actually Zoom (Gurus). 🙂

    There’s always a movie that critics overhyped to death and at the end it wasn’t as good as they claimed it was.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204523204

    I mean this as nicely as possible, but this sounds like something Alex Jones would say if he were an Oscar pundit lmao. I mean, I find it hard to believe that EVERY Oscar pundit 1. actually believes PotD definitively should win or 2. believe this strategy would actually work. They’re hypebeasts yeah, but this is too much even for them.

    I’m in the odd and unfamiliar position of defusing the tension in an argument lol but yes ofc there’s no coordinated attempt…

    …but to take loudtoilet’s point more generally, it IS true that almost all pundits who literally listed their favorites and put Belfast lower all put it in their top spot. It’s not coordination, it’s just…bandwagoning. Which is a simpler explanation. The others just liked it and somehow saw it as classic Oscar bait even though nobody knows what that even means anymore.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    loudtoilet
    Joined:
    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1204523206

    There’s always a movie that critics overhyped to death and at the end it wasn’t as good as they claimed it was.

    Titane and The Green Knight this year for sure. Candyman and Shang Chi got overpraised too for mediocrities that they were. Black Widow is terrible but critics didn’t dare say it. Etc.

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    George Ehret
    Joined:
    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    #1204523237

    …but to take loudtoilet’s point more generally, it IS true that almost all pundits who literally listed their favorites and put Belfast lower all put it in their top spot. It’s not coordination, it’s just…bandwagoning. Which is a simpler explanation. The others just liked it and somehow saw it as classic Oscar bait even though nobody knows what that even means anymore.

    This part I agree with, yeah. They’ve been doing this for a while now. It’s just that some pundits refuse to accept the Oscars are changing and the younger, more diverse, more international crowd of the Academy doesn’t care as much about traditional Oscar bait. It doesn’t guarantee a win anymore.

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    OscarWatcher1971
    Joined:
    Sep 24th, 2021
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    #1204523249

    Oscarbait is a very outdated concept. Green Book was an exception, not the rule. Follow the MC scores guys, AMPAS has skewed “critically acclaimed” since the preferential ballot came in. Green Book is the exception.

    And the pundits are tiresome as hell. They campaign almost as much as the studios, trying to appear in the know. They are very much players in this game. And they suffer from groupthink/bandwagon effect too

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204523293

    Oscarbait is a very outdated concept. Green Book was an exception, not the rule. Follow the MC scores guys, AMPAS has skewed “critically acclaimed” since the preferential ballot came in. Green Book is the exception.

    And the pundits are tiresome as hell. They campaign almost as much as the studios, trying to appear in the know. They are very much players in this game. And they suffer from groupthink/bandwagon effect too

    I’m sure there is a new equivalent to the old “Oscar bait” with this new AMPAS, but it’s definitely not the same as it used to be & may take a few more years to figure out, but AMPAS is changing a lot pretty fast (I mean going from 6% to 16% POC is actually huge given that 8% is all one needs for a nomination, and that really changes things & thus it makes sense that last year’s crop was so diverse. I’d like more % info on the demographic change tbh). Most performances than won in the last few years were not as showy as the classic “Oscar bait”, and definitely weren’t at all the showiest even amongst their lineups. Take last year: Davis, Kirby with that first half, Day, Boseman, Baron Cohen, Oldman, Seyfried, Close, Bakalova, Mulligan, Odom Jr. I loved some of these, but they were definitely showy. And even some of these are very unconventionally showy (Bakalova, Mulligan, Yeun are pretty darn unconventional performances to get nominated imo)

    Now, of course Anthony Hopkins and Daniel Kaluuya WERE showy—but I don’t think at all that the showiness is what stuck out to me about their performances, it was more of the tragic, ambiguous journey with Hopkins and the quiet menace and ambiguity with Kaluuya. They’re both performances that got applauded by critics for being fairly nuanced and almost just happened to be showy. I mean…isn’t it just super surprising that Sound of Metal, The Father, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman ALL got in? Some of them are like 1990s nominees: quiet character dramas. Others are extremely out-there and unconventional: what I call the new dark comedy trend of the Oscars which I REALLY NEED TO CONTINUE lol except I don’t see a big dark comedy player yet this year (which is it?!)

    And yes, absolutely—they’re skewing critically-acclaimed but we kinda do need to remember: this is what the Oscars USED to be before the 2000s and the preferential ballot! They almost always nominated critically-acclaimed, non-box office films, that was like……their whole deal. This is not a retreat to that, it just shows that making AMPAS younger & more diverse is actually making a bigger alignment with critics in many ways + it’s allowing critically-acclaimed genre films to get in more frequently.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204523309

    Besides the Parasite and Nomadland wins, I think the Original Screenplay snub for Mank and the Academy going for the subtle editing in Sound of Metal shows the scope of the changing Academy taste leaning to critically acclaimed/impassioned feeling for certain auteur films. I mean the acting branch going for Raci over established actors like Stratahairn, Rylance/ Reddmayne, and Leto is astounding.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    Grand Sprites
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2018
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    Posts:
    #1204523311

    what I call the new dark comedy trend of the Oscars which I REALLY NEED TO CONTINUE lol except I don’t see a big dark comedy player yet this year (which is it?!)

    Licorice Pizza, Worst Person in the World & Don’t Look Up all seem to fit the bill. (though I’m personally predicting the latter to flop, perhaps against my best judgment)

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204523315

    It’s interesting how the Original Screenplay race is between two coming of age films: Licorice Pizza and Belfast

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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