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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 13)

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    Richie Rich
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    Aug 6th, 2021
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    #1204523607

    Saying hi to an awards shutout.

    I’m not saying you are a hater but you sound like a hater.

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    KB93
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    Sep 8th, 2021
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    #1204523638

    I’m not saying you are a hater but you sound like a hater.

    But you just calling someone out for their director predictions isn’t hating? 💀

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    George Ehret
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    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    #1204523666

    I really doubt the branch that went with Get Out instead of Three Billboards, Promising Young Woman instead of The Trial of the Chicago 7, Her instead of Dallas Buyers Club, Birdman instead of Boyhood, is going to award Belfast of all things.

    I would add Parasite over Hollywood to this list as well.

    Also, I don’t think I’d consider Boyhood a traditional Oscars screenplay. It’s very mumblecore, and I can’t think of a mumblecore film that’s ever won Screenplay (although maybe I’m wrong)

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204523706

    Dune to be released one day early on HBO Max

    Won’t this disqualify it from Oscar contention?

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    Melvinezq
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    Aug 7th, 2020
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    #1204523774

    Dune to be released one day early on HBO Max

    Won’t this disqualify it from Oscar contention?

    Congrats Timmy Chalamet for being an Emmy frontrunner who will be snubbed later because TV movie is a nonfactor nowadays.

    "The Lost Daughter" in every eligible category - Film
    "Succession" Season 3 in every eligible category - TV
    "Heaux Tales" by Jasmine Sullivan in every eligible category - Music

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    Viridiana
    Joined:
    Dec 27th, 2019
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    #1204523847

    Dune to be released one day early on HBO Max Won’t this disqualify it from Oscar contention?

    No. As long as they do the required theatrical release (at least a seven days release in LA with three screenings per day), they don’t care if they release it first on streaming. They need to make it available on the Academy Screening Room within 60 days since its streaming release tho.

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    StasBrd
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    Oct 9th, 2019
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    #1204523850

    Films which are intended for theatrical release, but are initially made available  through commercial streaming, VOD service or other broadcast may qualify under  these provisions:

    • That the film be made available on the secure Academy Screening Room member site within 60 days of the film’s streaming/VOD release or broadcast

    • That it meets all other eligibility requirements

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    Melvinezq
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    Aug 7th, 2020
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    #1204523857

    The way with this rule we could have Liv Ullmann as the winner of Best Actress for Scenes from a Marriage. The objection was very widely criticised back when she won NYFCC, but could not compete at the Oscar just because the film was released as TV series first.

    "The Lost Daughter" in every eligible category - Film
    "Succession" Season 3 in every eligible category - TV
    "Heaux Tales" by Jasmine Sullivan in every eligible category - Music

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    LA26
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    Apr 3rd, 2021
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    #1204523905

    Disney is moving on – Searchlight has some Miramax-level cachet, and a semiautonomous awards team, in the Mouse House but 20th Century is akin to a temporary reopening of Touchstone – just burning off some product -no 20th film has rated a mention on Disney’s FYC site.

    The Last Duel actually has a section on their FYC site with a list of upcoming screenings in LA, NY and San Francisco: https://disneystudiosawards.com/last-duel/screenings/

     

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    LA26
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    Apr 3rd, 2021
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    #1204523909

    What happened to The French Dispatch’s marketing? I did a quick search and was shocked to see it was coming out on October 22.

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    loudtoilet
    Joined:
    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1204523912

    Let her promote her film already man. She’s campaigning her ass off while others are asleep right now. You spend more time hating on her than Grace Randolph.

    I’m not hating on her, I’m hating on her desperation. Like, have some dignity. Your movie is a critical and boxoffice bomb but for awards it’s more important that it’s a critical one. It’s crap. Yet you want to get in and win at all costs…for crap. I don’t care about great personal reviews if a movie is a dud. Winners from duds never stand the test of time. There should be at least some merit.

    Dune to be released one day early on HBO Max Won’t this disqualify it from Oscar contention?

    Isn’t that on Thursday with theatrical previews so technically the same day?

    But anyway, lol people who think Villeneuve will be snubbed and thus don’t have him in Top 5. If anyone gets stubbed that’s gonna be Branagh. B&W won’t fool anyone about directing prowess. OTOH, Villeneuve directed a technical marvel.

    Branagh 2022 = Sorkin 2021

     

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    kbc
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    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204524049

    Anne Thompson refreshed her GD picks.

    She adds The Last Duel to BP at No. 10, just behind No Time to DieThe Power of the Dog holds the top spot.

    Jodie Comer is new in best actress in the fifth slot, trailing Stewart, Chastain, Cruz and Hudson. Colman is knocked out.

    Ben Affleck’s Tender Bar turn enters supporting actor at No. 5, trailing KSM, Hinds (still Thompson’s only Belfast acting prediction), Bernthal and Hawkins. Mendelsohn is knocked out.

    Aunjanue Ellis leads supporting, followed by Merediz, Dunst, Dowd and Negga.

    Her best-actor predictions (Smith, Cumberbatch, Washington, Dinklage and Collins Jr.) are the same as before.

    She now has two non-English-language films leading the original screenplay race – Parallel Mothers and A Hero, followed by Belfast, King Richard and Spencer. Almodovar and Farhadi continue to join Campion, Villeneuve and Branagh in BD. She has seen The Worst Person in the World but it’s outside looking in (as is Renate Reinsve now though she was included in actress weeks back).

    In adapted, it’s three Netflix titles (No. 1 TPOTD, No. 4 Lost Daughter and No. 5 Passing), with Dune and CODA as Nos. 2 and 3.

    She’s also added her BTL predictions, with Dune leading everywhere but costumes (Cruella). And Luca leading in animation, with Flee in the last slot.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    mf617
    Joined:
    Oct 17th, 2011
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    #1204524093

    Dune to be released one day early on HBO Max

    Won’t this disqualify it from Oscar contention?

    The movie is premiering at 6pm on HBO Max on the 21st, the same time the Thursday night previews begin that day. I don’t know where people got this idea that the movie was premiering “early,” other than news publications trying to grab a flashy headline. Warner Bros did this with a few other films this year, including at least “In the Heights” as far as I can remember.

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    Elsa Korr
    Joined:
    Oct 16th, 2020
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    #1204524095

    What happened to The French Dispatch’s marketing? I did a quick search and was shocked to see it was coming out on October 22.

    I think its better to keep it that way. Its Searchlight not 20th Century after all. Besides, they have a pretty solid marketing campaign in their own right through their social media. On the contrary, I think movies like SoHo is marketed a bit too much IMO (I know its dead awards wise but if we want to talk about marketing its a good comparison since both are distributed by Indie branch of major studios yet Focus markets Soho quite aggressively )

    FYC:
    Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
    Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
    Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
    Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins

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    George Ehret
    Joined:
    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    #1204524112

    What happened to The French Dispatch’s marketing? I did a quick search and was shocked to see it was coming out on October 22.

    They saw the writing on the wall and realized it wasn’t gonna be a big Oscar contender… so they gave up.

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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