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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 13)

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    LLLhawks
    Joined:
    Dec 28th, 2018
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    #1204524169

    Winners from duds never stand the test of time. 

     

    Hard facts

    I just love movies. And awards.

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    kbc
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    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204524219

    They saw the writing on the wall and realized it wasn’t gonna be a big Oscar contender… so they gave up.

    Overall it’s a tougher than usual year for Searchlight – The Eyes of Tammy Faye and The French Dispatch are likely not bound for BP noms. We know Chastain is still in the hunt. TFD has a sliver of BTL nom potential, and Wes Anderson may or may not score an “auteur underperformer” screenplay nom a la the Coens and Buster Scruggs or PTA and Inherent Vice.

    And of course Nightmare Alley is the elephant in the (screening) room. It’s currently in a de facto contest with Amazon’s Being the Ricardos to shake off any potential dismissive speculation that can accompany films racing to deliver a print in time for precursor consideration. (The pending final cut of House of Gucci is a whole other beast.)

    Searchlight is soon going to have to offer up more evidence that all is well on the good ship GdT to allay concerns about this protracted postproduction process.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    loudtoilet
    Joined:
    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1204524353

    What happened to HoG marketing. It’s a little more than a month before its release, MGM has Bond out, so where is marketing? There was more when paps followed Gaga in Italy and now it’s crickets despite the buzzy trailer.

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    kbc
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    #1204524384

    What happened to HoG marketing. It’s a little more than a month before its release, MGM has Bond out, so where is marketing? There was more when paps followed Gaga in Italy and now it’s crickets despite the buzzy trailer.

    Not attaching a fresh trailer to No Time to Die is puzzling, tbh. Now MGM/UA has House of Gucci and Licorice Pizza both slated to open Thanksgiving week, and I’m not yet sure the studio has set the table sufficiently for HoG’s commercial or awards success.

    This is almost as mystifying as Neon’s continuing absence of a release date or main site page for The Worst Person in the World. Yes, Neon was burnt last year with minimal major-category traction among its FYC contenders – no post-Parasite honeymoon – so perhaps it’s treating this season more cautiously as it has an on balance higher-profile lineup with TWPITW, Titane, Petite Maman, Flee, Spencer… but hopefully Neon isn’t too deliberate in rolling out the Joachim Trier film as it juggles the campaigns.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204524422

    Mill Valley Fest gave Best Ensemble to The Lost Daughter. BEST ENSEMBLE! And the fest was full of contenders!

    We’re not taking the film seriously enough. BD is too difficult but BP — not so much! At this point I actually perhaps feel a tad more comfortable with it than Spencer because despite a much buzzier lead performance and a film everyone’s been talking about, it hasn’t won any of the prizes we thought it might be good for (it went entirely empty-handed at Venice…)

    I still think Spencer is good to get in anyway, because it seems to have enough passion for a nod, it’s possible that we just don’t have many signs beyond Kristen Stewart for it :/ Stewart, Claire Mathon, Jonny Greenwood, Pablo Larrain could all have gotten tributes or awards for it but they didn’t :/

    The Lost Daughter on the other hand — feted performances, an INCREDIBLY high MC (88) Best Screenplay at Venice and now Best Ensemble which is NOT a prize I expected for it (though it is great!)

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kaziz
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    #1204524434

    The Power of the Dog

    As response to bad & overhyped movie.

    Like…why lol. If it isn’t for you, that’s fine, but you can see how many people here love it, why would you call it overhyped when it has more than enough passion in a situation where most of us/all of us have seen it. With Belfast, so many haven’t — so it makes sense to wonder what’s happening there. Why deny that plenty of people clearly love a film?

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Viridiana
    Joined:
    Dec 27th, 2019
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    #1204524453

    Mill Valley Fest gave Best Ensemble to The Lost Daughter. BEST ENSEMBLE! And the fest was full of contenders!

    I think that´s a “campaign” award (just like the Palm Springs Film Festival Awards). It was already announced in september.

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    loudtoilet
    Joined:
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    #1204524459

    Not attaching a fresh trailer to No Time to Die is puzzling, tbh.  

    Yep. Even if the movie isn’t a contender, it has a healthy boxoffice prospect so they should at least aim to get butts in seats. Which is doable. Yet here we are. if there was a movie that looked like a perfect marketing storm, it was that one so crickets are truly puzzling.

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    kbc
    Joined:
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    #1204524466

    Mill Valley Fest gave Best Ensemble to The Lost Daughter. BEST ENSEMBLE! And the fest was full of contenders!

    We’re not taking the film seriously enough. BD is too difficult but BP — not so much! At this point I actually perhaps feel a tad more comfortable with it than Spencer because despite a much buzzier lead performance and a film everyone’s been talking about, it hasn’t won any of the prizes we thought it might be good for (it went entirely empty-handed at Venice…)

    I still think Spencer is good to get in anyway, because it seems to have enough passion for a nod, it’s possible that we just don’t have many signs beyond Kristen Stewart for it :/ Stewart, Claire Mathon, Jonny Greenwood, Pablo Larrain could all have gotten tributes or awards for it but they didn’t :/

    The Lost Daughter on the other hand — feted performances, an INCREDIBLY high MC (88) Best Screenplay at Venice and now Best Ensemble which is NOT a prize I expected for it (though it is great!)

    And yet Anne Thompson just dropped Olivia Colman for Jodie Comer, and hasn’t ever made room for Jessie Buckley or Dakota Johnson while holding onto Olga Merediz, and is opting for CODA, No Time to Die and The Last Duel in BP over The Lost Daughter – relegating it to a lone nom for writing. And Netflix’s plate is piled high and wide, with a paring-down looming. So I’m hesitant to share the enthusiasm for a potential multicategory splash right now.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    JV
    Joined:
    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204524482

    Mill Valley Fest gave Best Ensemble to The Lost Daughter. BEST ENSEMBLE! And the fest was full of contenders! We’re not taking the film seriously enough. BD is too difficult but BP — not so much! At this point I actually perhaps feel a tad more comfortable with it than Spencer because despite a much buzzier lead performance and a film everyone’s been talking about, it hasn’t won any of the prizes we thought it might be good for (it went entirely empty-handed at Venice…) I still think Spencer is good to get in anyway, because it seems to have enough passion for a nod, it’s possible that we just don’t have many signs beyond Kristen Stewart for it :/ Stewart, Claire Mathon, Jonny Greenwood, Pablo Larrain could all have gotten tributes or awards for it but they didn’t :/ The Lost Daughter on the other hand — feted performances, an INCREDIBLY high MC (88) Best Screenplay at Venice and now Best Ensemble which is NOT a prize I expected for it (though it is great!)

    Neon is going all in with Spencer. It will be one of the most widely seen movies in the race because of the Best Actress frontrunner.

    And Kristen Stewart is getting a tribute at the Gotham Awards

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    loudtoilet
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    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1204524495

    Holding onto Meridez is laughable. WB has Ellis in Supporting. She will gain traction because KR will gain traction. They are not going to waste time on Heights flop if they can get Actor, SupActress, SupActor and SAG Ensemble out of KR.

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204524500

    Everyday I get more confident Larrain will make it in the directors lineup. The craftsmanship of the film is so meticulous and auteur-y that will be enough for the directors branch to welcome him to the club.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204524673

    Neon is going all in with Spencer. It will be one of the most widely seen movies in the race because of the Best Actress frontrunner.

    And Kristen Stewart is getting a tribute at the Gotham Awards

    Everyday I get more confident Larrain will make it in the directors lineup. The craftsmanship of the film is so meticulous and auteur-y that will be enough for the directors branch to welcome him to the club.

    Well yes I do feel more confident with Larrain in Director & as I said, I think Spencer is most likely going to make it. That said, the comparison I was making was to use Spencer as an example to show why The Lost Daughter is being underrated on here.

    It seems very obviously the biggest Netflix push after TPOTD (I am exempting DLU here because it hardly even needs a push NOT because I think it’s not a “priority”. The other two are just smaller films that NEED the push. DLU will prob make BP so pls don’t think I’m a hater bc I’m not).

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204524683

    Well yes I do feel more confident with Larrain in Director & as I said, I think Spencer is most likely going to make it. That said, the comparison I was making was to use Spencer as an example to show why The Lost Daughter is being underrated on here.

    I would like to point out my comment was unrelated to your The Lost Daughter assertions. It was basically a thought I’ve been having and not really a rebuttal haha. I think The Lost Daughter will play very well with BAFTA and will make it in Best Film and win Adapted Screenplay. It’s not necessarily a British film but the British pedigree and auteur craftsmanship that is likely to appeal to British sensibilities will push it to Best Picture at the Oscars. I just hope the film doesn’t get Carol’d when Oscar nomination morning occurs.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204524692

      And yet Anne Thompson just dropped Olivia Colman for Jodie Comer, and hasn’t ever made room for Jessie Buckley or Dakota Johnson while holding onto Olga Merediz, and is opting for CODA, No Time to Die and The Last Duel in BP over The Lost Daughter – relegating it to a lone nom for writing. And Netflix’s plate is piled high and wide, with a paring-down looming. So I’m hesitant to share the enthusiasm for a potential multicategory splash right now.

      True but to be fair…….a lot of those make zero sense lol. If there is a paring down, The Lost Daughter is most definitely top 3 with DLU, TPOTD. I’ve seen the film, they’re campaigning like mad, the cast has mad pedigree, it’s a beautiful film that does one of the biggest literary figures of today total justice. Even if it ends up being #9 or #10, I just don’t think we’re taking it seriously enough.

      If Passing was making a bigger splash I’d say it for that (it deserves to! It’s excellent! The two films are on par for me personally and Tessa is still the best in the Actress field for me, haven’t seen Stewart) but as of now it almost seems like even Negga is on the bubble. I GENUINELY hope Passing and The Lost Daughter both get big critics pushes because they’re both fantastic. Realistically, The Lost Daughter has shown enough strength.

      Re: the award being announced already — so? The film’s ensemble is being feted by the festival, that’s a big deal, it’s not like Olivia Colman is getting a tribute for her body of work like Cumberbatch & Chastain did at TIFF.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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