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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 14)

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204541141

    I think Macbeth is missing. I don’t see it getting at BAFTA Best Film. So the only Best Picture precursor nomination it would have would be PGA and I don’t see PGA nominating Macbeth either. Bridge of Spies only premiered at NYFF and got in at BAFTA Best Film.

    Best Picture (Post LFF):
    1. The Power of the Dog
    2. Belfast
    3. Dune
    4. King Richard
    5. Spencer
    6. The Lost Daughter
    7. Don’t Look Up
    8. Nightmare Alley
    9. Licorice Pizza
    10. House of Gucci

    I now have warmed up with House of Gucci making it in based on the possibility of it doing well in the box office and The Last Duel’s positive critical reception which may suggest House of Gucci won’t be a complete mess as we once thought it would be. In any case we know the film’s reception in 2 weeks!

    Best Director
    1. Campion
    2. Del Toro
    3. Villeneuve
    4. Larraín
    5. Paul Thomas Anderson

    Feeling confident on the top 3. The last two spots are anyones guesses though I also feel Larraín will make it in. I’m not ballsy enough to predict Ducournau unless we see the foreign film longlist.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204541189

    When the House of Gucci reviews come out…

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    crabbie
    Joined:
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    #1204541199

    House of Gucci just needs a 70 range to make it in Best Picture I feel. If it’s critically panned I might have to predict Being the Ricardos instead or even worse…West Side Story.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204541253

    House of Gucci just needs a 70 range to make it in Best Picture I feel. If it’s critically panned I might have to predict Being the Ricardos instead or even worse…West Side Story.

    Depends on your theory of what would make the 10th spot, I think? Either one argues that it goes to a late-breaker, or it goes to a critically-acclaimed film that just fell short. I think based on the last few years, I’d say the latter, of which there’s no real shortage (and likely includes international films).

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    crabbie
    Joined:
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    #1204541265

    Depends on your theory of what would make the 10th spot, I think? Either one argues that it goes to a late-breaker, or it goes to a critically-acclaimed film that just fell short. I think based on the last few years, I’d say the latter, of which there’s no real shortage (and likely includes international films).

    My theory for the tenth spot is most likely a latbereaker. I don’t think critically acclaimed films like Passing, C’mon C’mon, Flee, or Tragedy of Macbeth have enough support to push a latbereaker out. It would certainly break the trend of the tenth spot going to stylistic auteur films like Jackie and Knives Out were on the cusp. But I am just not confident in our assortment of festival films this year,

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    The Oscarguy
    Joined:
    Jan 11th, 2021
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    #1204541304

    Man, the pundits’ overestimation of King Richard is pretty ridiculous.

    Now, I think Smith is winning and the movie is pretty safely in for a Picture nomination, but I don’t buy this talk about it being a top 3 contender at all. I see it as a Ford V Ferrari of this year.

    And predicting it for a director, people haven’t learned anything about how that branch works I see.

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    CarlosEdu
    Joined:
    Jan 16th, 2019
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    #1204541308

    Best Picture
    1. The Power of the Dog
    2. Belfast
    3. Nightmare Alley
    4. Dune
    5. Licorice Pizza
    6. Don’t Look Up
    7. The Lost Daughter
    8. Spencer
    9. King Richard
    10. House of Gucci

    Best Director
    1. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
    2. Guillermo Del Toro – Nightmare Alley
    3. Denis Villeneuve – Dune
    4. Pablo Larraín – Spencer
    5. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204541365

    My theory for the tenth spot is most likely a latbereaker. I don’t think critically acclaimed films like Passing, C’mon C’mon, Flee, or Tragedy of Macbeth have enough support to push a latbereaker out. It would certainly break the trend of the tenth spot going to stylistic auteur films like Jackie and Knives Out were on the cusp. But I am just not confident in our assortment of festival films this year,

    Well I thinkkkk at least 80s MC still honestly… Ma Rainey at 87 and ONIM 83, Knives Out at 82, Beale Street at 87 and First Man at 84, The Florida Project at 92, Mudbound and The Big Sick both at 84, Jackie at 81…….so on, so forth.

    In retrospect we don’t see films like Beale Street/First Man & Ma Rainey/One Night in Miami as having sufficient passion but those are the films we expected to get in the most. The late-breaking The Post, Vice, Phantom Thread etc. all got in anyway, and were relative surprises, i.e. even with surprises the late-breakers were limited to 2 or 3. So… yeah I’d say a late-breaking film in the 80s at the very least, if that’s what you think.

    Personally I think a critically-acclaimed film is more likely because the November-December critics groups + guilds make consensus critical picks out of what currently look like TOO MANY choices. But that’s just me. I’ve already penciled in Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, Don’t Look Up—more than 3 feels a bit quixotic. Most festival films also come out at the same time, there’s too much…churn.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Heptapod
    Joined:
    Sep 8th, 2021
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    #1204541387

    I’m telling you guys, underestimate Joachim Trier at your peril. The directors branch has been consistently going out of their way to recognize foreign-language directors. Titane is probably way too much for the directors to go for Ducournau, and Spain passing over Parallel Mothers puts a big roadblock in Almodóvar’s way (not impossible but it’ll probably just be a play for Cruz). Trier is already fairly well-respected, and The Worst Person in the World has the passion.

    EMMYS FYC
    Dickinson – Hailee Steinfeld, Anna Baryshnikov
    Kevin Can F**k Himself – Mary Hollis Inboden
    Only Murders – James Caverley
    The Other Two – Drew Tarver, Heléne Yorke
    Physical – Rose Byrne
    Schmigadoon! – Ariana DeBose
    The White Lotus – Alexandra Daddario

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    CarlosEdu
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    Jan 16th, 2019
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    #1204541397

    For people that watched The Lost Daughter, do you think the movie could get a editing nomination? I’m starting to think TLD will have a similarity with Get Out, Jojo Rabbit and Promising Young Woman, with actors that made movies directing and writing and winning for screenplay.

    I don’t think Maggie will be nominate for Best Director (but it’s possible) but editing could show that the movie has passion.

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    Heptapod
    Joined:
    Sep 8th, 2021
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    #1204541447

    Honestly, unless The Lost Daughter lands better than I’m expecting it to, I think it’ll just be an actress/screenplay contender. It’s very very good, but it’s probably a tad too subdued to have public reception on the level of the films you’ve mentioned. (I have seen it.)

    I don’t think it’ll be a Picture nominee unless Don’t Look Up flops (which, granted, it may very well do). But even so, I think Passing will be ahead of it. If Netflix couldn’t get three Picture nominees last year under extremely special circumstances, they won’t this year.

    Long story short: I don’t think it’ll be in editing or director.

    EMMYS FYC
    Dickinson – Hailee Steinfeld, Anna Baryshnikov
    Kevin Can F**k Himself – Mary Hollis Inboden
    Only Murders – James Caverley
    The Other Two – Drew Tarver, Heléne Yorke
    Physical – Rose Byrne
    Schmigadoon! – Ariana DeBose
    The White Lotus – Alexandra Daddario

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    Posts:
    #1204541458

    Well I thinkkkk at least 80s MC still honestly… Ma Rainey at 87 and ONIM 83, Knives Out at 82, Beale Street at 87 and First Man at 84, The Florida Project at 92, Mudbound and The Big Sick both at 84, Jackie at 81…….so on, so forth.

    In retrospect we don’t see films like Beale Street/First Man & Ma Rainey/One Night in Miami as having sufficient passion but those are the films we expected to get in the most. The late-breaking The Post, Vice, Phantom Thread etc. all got in anyway, and were relative surprises, i.e. even with surprises the late-breakers were limited to 2 or 3. So… yeah I’d say a late-breaking film in the 80s at the very least, if that’s what you think.

    Personally I think a critically-acclaimed film is more likely because the November-December critics groups + guilds make consensus critical picks out of what currently look like TOO MANY choices. But that’s just me. I’ve already penciled in Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, Don’t Look Up—more than 3 feels a bit quixotic. Most festival films also come out at the same time, there’s too much…churn.

    I agree predicting more than 3 latebreakers to make it in is a bit risky on virtue of nobody has seen this films. And festivals are always key to Best Picture nominations. The guaranteed ten Best Picture slot is pretty much making everyone to evaluate the nominations very closely to see what will make it in the final cut. I have a feeling we know the current 8 Besy Picture nominees but it’s the last two slots that remain a looming question mark. I’ll definitely be looking out which one of House of Gucci, West Side Story, or Being The Ricardos gets that 80+ Metacritic score.

    Also I believe your sentiment towards Macbeth will be reflective of the Academy. A deep admiration for Macbeth’s craftsmanship and performances treading on cold feelings towards the film. I don’t see much people passionate about the film and when they name their festival favorites they typically recite Belfast, Spencer, TPOTD, Dune, Flee, Titane, The Worst Person in the World, C’mon C’mon etc. I hardly see Macbeth in the conversation which is troubling since it’s an artsy full fledged shakesperian adaptation that should capture a zeitgeist!

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    MD
    Joined:
    Dec 25th, 2017
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    Posts:
    #1204541468

    For people that watched The Lost Daughter, do you think the movie could get a editing nomination? I’m starting to think TLD will have a similarity with Get Out, Jojo Rabbit and Promising Young Woman, with actors that made movies directing and writing and winning for screenplay.

    I don’t think Maggie will be nominate for Best Director (but it’s possible) but editing could show that the movie has passion.

    Get Out, Jojo and PYW were pretty strong movies. I don’t think this will get Directing or Editing noms. Honestly I doubt it’s getting into BP.

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    JV
    Joined:
    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204541470

    https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2021/10/nd3k6tv1bnjav8bqxeiz1thj8h5vaa?format=amp&__twitter_impression=true

    I’ve been asking around to see if anyone has actually seen Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Licorice Pizza,” after all, Variety’s Clayton Davis subtly mentioned in an Oscar piece, a week or so ago, that it had been screened for a select few critics and journalists.

    This morning, I sent a few emails around, three major trade critics replied stating they had not been invited to any screenings nor had they heard of any actually occurring. I’m starting to wonder if the “buzz” it has been getting the last few days is legitimate or artificial

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    NevadaR
    Joined:
    Jan 13th, 2018
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    #1204541564

    For people that watched The Lost Daughter, do you think the movie could get a editing nomination? I’m starting to think TLD will have a similarity with Get Out, Jojo Rabbit and Promising Young Woman

    If it gets a BP nom it will be a low tier contender and unless it has a very showy editing like FordvFerrari or I, Tonya or it impeccably merges sound design, effects and editing like Sound of Metal I don’t see it happening in this category. It’s the stronger movies with a chance of winning that usually end up in here.

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