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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 14)

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204541603

    If Netflix couldn’t get three Picture nominees last year under extremely special circumstances, they won’t this year.

    There weren’t 10 slots last year though. For all we know Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom could have been 10th.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    mf617
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    Oct 17th, 2011
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    #1204541643

    I wish, as per usual, we had any idea what A24 is doing with their campaigns and awards priorities. Their big play is logically one of (or potentially more than one, but this is A24 after all) “C’mon C’mon,” “The Humans,” “Red Rocket” and “The Tragedy of Macbeth.” None of these is a slam dunk. “Macbeth” landed really well at NYFF, but the buzz has dropped off since then. We also still don’t really know if A24 and Apple will split the campaign for this one. “The Humans” got a trailer and one picture, and is the only one getting the simultaneous Showtime release, so are we to believe this isn’t a top priority (or priority at all)? I’m still clinging onto Richard Jenkins, Jane Houdyshell and screenplay, but I’m pretty close to dropping all three because there’s absolutely no buzz and no signs of hope. “Red Rocket” seems to have played at the most fall festivals, but even its most ardent supporters seem to recognize that the film’s best chances are Simon Rex and maybe Screenplay, and those are both considered long shots because of the film’s subject. At the end of the day, the strongest A24 contender might be “C’mon C’mon” as it has had a good festival presence, is generally really liked, and has a more awards-friendly lead actor performance versus “Red Rocket.” Denzel and Frances seem like likely nominations, and “Macbeth” could ride that wave to Picture, Director, and Screenplay if the movie continues building buzz once that campaign restarts in earnest. Beyond that, it’s conceivable A24 doesn’t gain nominations anywhere else this year. After the great run of “Minari” last year, this slate and strategy seems to reflect their 2019 — a lot of good, high-profile projects but no clear priority leading to an underperformance by season’s end.

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    Heptapod
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    #1204541784

    How many nominations I’m predicting each of my Picture lineup nominees to get. Italics are winners.

    DUNE (10) – Picture, Director, Original Score, Cinematography, Costume Design, Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects

    NIGHTMARE ALLEY (10) – Picture, Supporting Actor (Dafoe), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography Costume Design, Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects

    BELFAST (9) – Picture, Director, Supporting Actor (Hinds), Supporting Actress (Balfe), Original Screenplay, Original Song, Cinematography, Editing

    THE POWER OF THE DOG (9) – Picture, Director, Actor (Cumberbatch), Supporting Actor (Smit-McPhee), Supporting Actress (Dunst), Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Cinematography, Editing

    THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH (7) – Picture, Actor (Washington), Supporting Actress (McDormand), Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Cinematography, Production Design

    SPENCER (6) – Picture, Actress (Stewart), Original Score, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design

    DON’T LOOK UP (5) – Picture, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Original Song, Visual Effects

    LICORICE PIZZA (5) – Picture, Director, Supporting Actor (Cooper), Original Screenplay, Editing

    THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD (5) – Picture, Director, Actress (Reinsve), Original Screenplay, International Feature

    KING RICHARD (4) – Picture, Actor (Smith), Supporting Actress (Ellis), Original Song

    EMMYS FYC
    Dickinson – Hailee Steinfeld, Anna Baryshnikov
    Kevin Can F**k Himself – Mary Hollis Inboden
    Only Murders – James Caverley
    The Other Two – Drew Tarver, Heléne Yorke
    Physical – Rose Byrne
    Schmigadoon! – Ariana DeBose
    The White Lotus – Alexandra Daddario

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    kaziz
    Joined:
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    #1204541888

    I wish, as per usual, we had any idea what A24 is doing with their campaigns and awards priorities. Their big play is logically one of (or potentially more than one, but this is A24 after all) “C’mon C’mon,” “The Humans,” “Red Rocket” and “The Tragedy of Macbeth.”

    I feel like…….actually, after the festival season and before the critics groups, THIS general indecision is actually very, very, very common. Last year was particularly indecisive in many ways because of the lack of in-person festivals: who woulda known Sound of Metal, Minari, Judas and the Black Messiah would make such big imprints, Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami would make so much smaller imprints than expected for literal BIG PLAYERS (because yeah, some people were indeed thinking TOP 2/3 stuff with it, thus the Regina King as Best Director prognostications). The Father slunk away for a while and went unmentioned for a while, there was a fair amount of hopedicting for things like Ammonite, I Care A Lot, Pieces of a Woman in general, and the latter 2 had small resurgences and subsequent failures (beyond Kirby) because they were widely seen and commented on (Netflix pickups are good that way I guess…)

    Basically—what I’m saying is: right now, it looks like there’s a HUMONGOUS POOL and we have no idea what to do, but the critics groups 100% winnow them down! As of now, maybe you’re someone who thinks Clifton Collins Jr. or Simon Rex or Peter Dinklage or or Richard Jenkins or Jayne Houdyshell or Ann Dowd or Martha Plimpton or many other things definitely can or cannot “happen.” Until the critics groups either shut them out or give em something—we don’t know! I sure have feels about them all, but I’ve been wrong about some things every year, all of us have. CERTAINLY did not think Paul Raci or Maria Bakalova would end up looking like sensible predictions by the time precursors rolled around.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    KB93
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    #1204541931

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204541975

    There will be a whole extra month for voters to watch all these movies, and late breakers will probably be among the most watched by them. It’s another season longer than usual.

    I have Don’t Look Up, Being the Ricardos, Nightmare Alley and House of Gucci getting BP nominations. It’s another unusual season so an unusual number of non festival players could happen due to all the delays and the fact that Nightmare Alley would’ve gone to Venice if it was finished.

    Putting my personal opinions aside, Don’t Look Up will be a smash viwership hit on Netflix, and they know it. It’s definitely being underestimated by pundits.

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    TrumpBiden
    Joined:
    Dec 22nd, 2020
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    #1204542021

    There will be a whole extra month for voters to watch all these movies, and late breakers will probably be among the most watched by them. It’s another season longer than usual. I have Don’t Look Up, Being the Ricardos, Nightmare Alley and House of Gucci getting BP nominations. It’s another unusual season so an unusual number of non festival players could happen due to all the delays and the fact that Nightmare Alley would’ve gone to Venice if it was finished. Putting my personal opinions aside, Don’t Look Up will be a smash viwership hit on Netflix, and they know it. It’s definitely being underestimated by pundits.

    I keep saying how people should not doubt Mckey. Don’t look up will do great and will be Netflix’s second bigest push.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
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    #1204542190

    There will be a whole extra month for voters to watch all these movies, and late breakers will probably be among the most watched by them. It’s another season longer than usual.

    I have Don’t Look Up, Being the Ricardos, Nightmare Alley and House of Gucci getting BP nominations.

    For the literal thousandth time: if you were think the worry is that that films like Don’t Look Up, Being the Ricardos, Nightmare Alley, House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza & West Side Story would not be SEEN………… yeah I don’t think you understand the argument at all, because everyone was always going to watch those, unless the early reviews are SO bad that everyone goes “ah well, no chance for that, I suppose.”

    This is the inherent advantage into late-breakers that are put on high by pundits: they wouldn’t BE late at all if they weren’t stacked with casts and directed by directors who will ALWAYS be seen. That’s literally the in-built assumption! Lol 2-4 more weeks was never going to change that for these films, it can only advantage the LESS seen films…….i.e. the ones critics groups are most likely to put up.

    Why on earth do you think Netflix would ever even think it could get away with Don’t Look Up at the very end of the year? Or any studio? They’re not that worried! If anything, films like Dune that would ordinarily probably have skipped the festival circuit went just in case…to sort of “test the waters” and probably to build even more buzz! Which it got, so hooray!

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kbc
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204542203

    Why on earth do you think Netflix would ever even think it could get away with Don’t Look Up at the very end of the year? Or any studio? They’re not that worried! If anything, films like Dune that would ordinarily probably have skipped the festival circuit went just in case…to sort of “test the waters” and probably to build even more buzz! Which it got, so hooray!

    Seconding all this, as always. There’s also quite a stark contrast in how Netflix is handling The Unforgivable–which the studio appears to be managing almost as if it were another of its starry but pure-commercial-play programmers like Red Notice (also absent from the studio FYC page)–and Don’t Look Up. That EW “exclusive look” with DLU photos at the time of the trailer release amid festival season was a calculated move to insert DLU into the “prestige pix” convo of the time. I expect another big marketing/promo drop for DLU after the start of next month, perhaps around the time of the AFI Fest world premieres of Tick, Tick…BOOM! (Nov. 11) and Bruised (Nov. 13), so the studio can leverage the lift it’ll be getting from renewed “Netflix is coming!” awards chatter those two films should generate. Garfield, Berry and, oh, wow just right around the corner here are Leo/JLaw/Meryl/Timothee/Cate et al.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204542223

    Dune is this year’s Interstellar. There’s just absolutely no passion for it and it’s only October.

    Your literal first post on this account is to hate on a film?

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204542236

    It’s not hate, it’s the truth. You think Academy voters are gonna actually vote for it in picture?

    Yes but good luck with the ‘tude

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    TrumpBiden
    Joined:
    Dec 22nd, 2020
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    #1204542264

    Dune is this year’s Interstellar. There’s just absolutely no passion for it and it’s only October.

    I wonder who’s alt you’re and why it got banned.

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    kbc
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204542406

    mf617 wrote:
    I wish, as per usual, we had any idea what A24 is doing with their campaigns and awards priorities. Their big play is logically one of (or potentially more than one, but this is A24 after all) “C’mon C’mon,” “The Humans,” “Red Rocket” and “The Tragedy of Macbeth.”

    I think from its minimal post-TIFF fest-appearance track record, and the fact A24 cut a day-and-date premiere deal with the Showtime network, that The Humans is the studio’s lowest priority among its fall fest offerings, right now. Of course, any turn in momentum thanks to precursors can potentially shake that up.

    Several post-TIFF fests have featured both Red Rocket and C’mon C’mon, NYFF among them, and a handful I believe had either one or the other, so it seems they are in a solid spot to benefit from potential incoming precursor acclaim.

    The Tragedy of Macbeth, a joint A24/Apple venture, has had only two fest screenings to my knowledge – NYFF and LFF. This is certainly a campaign that’s going for the “lowkey” gear – leaning heavily on the existing high visibility of Denzel Washington, Frances McDormand, Joel Coen and, ofc, Bill Shakespeare. I suspect the studios will continue down this measured path for TTOM until (expected) precursor love builds, and then you’ll see a bit more studio drumbeating from both partners.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    LA26
    Joined:
    Apr 3rd, 2021
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    #1204542432

    I think it’s safe to say at this point that no studio, publicist or talent is going to associate with the upcoming Golden Globes or attend them. The ceremony will be on January 9, the same date as the Critics Choice Awards. Pretty sure the CCA will replace the Golden Globes as the start of awards season. I just can’t see any actor associating themselves with the HFPA after Scarlett Johansson publicly called them out and Tom Cruise returned his 3 Golden Globes. It seems weird to have both ceremonies before the Governors Awards though (January 15).

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    NevadaR
    Joined:
    Jan 13th, 2018
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    #1204542444

    I think it’s safe to say at this point that no studio, publicist or talent is going to associate with the upcoming Golden Globes or attend them. The ceremony will be on January 9, the same date as the Critics Choice Awards. Pretty sure the CCA will replace the Golden Globes as the start of awards season. I just can’t see any actor associating themselves with the HFPA after Scarlett Johansson publicly called them out and Tom Cruise returned his 3 Golden Globes. It seems weird to have both ceremonies before the Governors Awards though (January 15).

    I don’t think they will have a ceremony, it will most probably just be a press release. Anyway, they should have stayed away for a season or two and focus on their reform. It’s going to be a mess with many of the studios not submitting their movies. Nobody will take those winners seriously.

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