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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 14)

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    SaulAtreides
    Joined:
    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204564010

    Netflix Can Dream All They Want

    The Hollywood Elswhere guy is having a breakdown over TPOTD and it’s hilarious:

    “The Gold Derby kiss-asses who are projecting a Dog Best Picture win are completely out of their fucking minds.”

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    Cosmia
    Joined:
    Oct 19th, 2021
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    #1204564028

    What a ridiculous clusterfuck of totally uncool jokers. Wells is pissing in the wind like the rest of us, so I don’t know where he gets off acting so indignant.

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    kbc
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204564034

    The French Dispatch’s box office run has genuinely been impressive, and doesn’t seem to have gone down much this weekend. I think it could be a big tech/guild player at the very least.

    Indeed, it’s a version of the second wind that Disney-Fox’s The Last Duel (so good) got from critics and word of mouth of those who actually saw it after that oddly muted Venice bow. The difference is that I have much more confidence in the semiautonomous awards team at Searchlight’s ability to leverage this positive box-office news into a renewed awards push for TFD than I do in the ability of the broader Disney awards team, which is focused on its Marvel, Pixar and Disney Animation “priorities,” to manifest something similar for TLD, whose poor marketing and release pales next to the smart choices at Searchlight re: TFD.

    Searchlight needed this after The Eyes of Tammy Faye sank at the b.o.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    kbc
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204564042

    https://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2021/11/netflix-can-dream-all-they-want/embed/#?secret=QRtOzPhDB1

    The Hollywood Elsewhere guy is having a breakdown over TPOTD and it’s hilarious:

    “The Gold Derby kiss-asses who are projecting a Dog Best Picture win are completely out of their fucking minds.”

    Too much toxicity, really. But that’s been a significant drawback to the Oscar-watching game for years since it became the punditry became institutionalized online, breaking out of the legacy paper-only industry-trades niche.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204564044

    https://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2021/11/netflix-can-dream-all-they-want/embed/#?secret=QRtOzPhDB1 The Hollywood Elswhere guy is having a breakdown over TPOTD and it’s hilarious: “The Gold Derby kiss-asses who are projecting a Dog Best Picture win are completely out of their fucking minds.”

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    HAL 9000
    Joined:
    Aug 27th, 2021
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    #1204564053

    More industry screenings have been announced for Dune moderated by Safdies, Sam Mendes and Lee Isaac Chung. Villeneuve has an insane level of industry support this season

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    SaulAtreides
    Joined:
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    #1204564057

    More industry screenings have been announced for Dune moderated by Safdies, Sam Mendes and Lee Isaac Chung. Villeneuve has an insane level of industry support this season

    I’m getting more confident of a director nom.

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    TrumpBiden
    Joined:
    Dec 22nd, 2020
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    #1204564067

    I honestly liked French Dispatch. Not the best film from the director, but it would be a better BP nominee than Belsnore, and West Side Rehash.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204564124

    Nothing is funnier to me right now than the regular situation of: pundits’ overwhelming and insane desire to get power and shape the Oscar race—mostly because they’re…not critics, and REALLY want the power critics have lol.

    It’s HILARIOUS!

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kbc
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204564159

    Nothing is funnier to me right now than the regular situation of: pundits’ overwhelming and insane desire to get power and shape the Oscar race—mostly because they’re…not critics, and REALLY want the power critics have lol.

    It’s HILARIOUS!

    And obnoxious at times. This take does cut to the heart of the matter, except they not only want the power that critics have, but the power possessed by Ampas and guild voters, as well.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    Foolio
    Joined:
    Jan 24th, 2017
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    #1204564238

    PICTURE

    Frontrunners

    Belfast
    The Power of the Dog

    Next in line

    Licorice Pizza
    Don’t Look Up
    Dune

    On the brink

    King Richard
    Nightmare Alley
    The Lost Daughter
    Spencer
    House of Gucci

    Strong possibilities

    West Side Story
    Passing
    Madres paralelas
    The Tragedy of Macbeth
    Coda
    Being the Ricardos
    The French Dispatch

    Possibilities

    C’mon C’mon
    The Hand of God
    Bruised
    Tick, Tick… Boom!

    Longer shots

    The Last Duel
    The Humans
    Titane
    Mass
    The Harder They Fall
    Annette
    A Hero
    The Card Counter
    The Eternals
    The Green Knight
    Jockey
    Red Rocket
    Last Night in Soho
    The Worst Person in the World
    Flee
    Cyrano
    No Time to Die

    Theoretical possibilities

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    Stillwater
    Encanto
    Blue Bayou
    Happening
    The Many Saints of Newark
    In the Heights
    Louis Wain
    Petite Maman

    DIRECTOR

    Frontrunners

    Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
    Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

    Next in line

    Denis Villeneuve, Dune
    Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

    On the brink

    Pablo Larrain, Spencer
    Guillermo Del Toro, Nightmare Alley
    Pedro Almodovar, Madres paralelas

    Strong possibilities

    Maggie Gyllengaal, The Lost Daughter
    Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
    Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
    Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Possibilities

    Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
    Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God
    Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
    Rebecca Hall, Passing
    Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
    Halle Berry, Bruised
    Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
    Lin-Manuel Miranda, Tick, Tick… Boom!
    Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos
    Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon
    Julia Ducournau, Titane
    Sian Heder, Coda
    Leos Carax, Annette

    Longer shots

    Ridley Scott, The Last Duel
    Paul Schrader, The Card Counter
    Jeymes Samuel, The Harder They Fall
    Sean Baker, Red Rocket
    Edgar Wright, Last Night in Soho
    Chloe Zao, Eternals
    Fran Kranz, Mass
    Stephen Karam, The Humans
    Clint Eastwood, Cry Macho
    Audrey Diwan, Happening

    Theoretical possibilities

    Tom McCarthy, Stillwater
    Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World
    Joe Wright, Cyrano
    Justin Chon, Blue Bayou
    Nathalie Biancheri, Wolf
    Barry Levinson, The Survivor
    Celine Sciamma, Petite Maman
    John Michael McDonagh, The Forgiven
    Alan Taylor, The Many Saints of Newark
    Will Sharpe, Louis Wain
    Benjamin Cleary, Swan Song
    Claire Denis, Fire
    Lana Wachowski, The Matrix Resurrections

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    kbc
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204564328

    DEADLINE’S L.A. CONTENDERS EVENT ATTENDEE LINE-UP (by studio)

    AMAZON
    Being the Ricardos
    Nicole Kidman, Javier Bardem, J.K. Simmons, Nina Arianda, Aaron Sorkin

    The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
    Benedict Cumberbatch, Claire Foy, Will Sharpe

    A Hero
    Asghar Farhadi

    The Tender Bar
    Ben Affleck, Tye Sheridan

    APPLE
    CODA
    Sian Heder, Emilia Jones, Marlee Matlin

    Swan Song
    Mahershala Ali, Naomie Harris, Benjamin Cleary

    A24
    C’mon C’mon
    Woody Norman, Mike Mills

    Red Rocket
    Simon Rex, Bree Elrod, Suzanna Son, Sean Baker

    APPLE/A24
    The Tragedy of Macbeth
    Stefan Dechant (production designer), Mary Zophres (costume designer)

    AURUM FILM
    Leave No Traces
    Tomasz Sietek (actor), Jan P. Matuszyski (director)

    BLEECKER STREET
    I’m Your Man
    Dan Stevens (actor/exec producer)

    Mass
    Ann Dowd, Martha Plimpton, Reed Birney, Fran Kranz

    DREAMWORKS ANIMATION
    The Boss Baby: Family Business
    Tom McGrath (director), Jeff Hermann (producer)

    Spirit Untamed
    Elaine Bogan (director), Amie Doherty (composer)

    FOCUS
    Belfast
    Kenneth Branagh

    Blue Bayou
    Justin Chon

    MGM/UA
    House of Gucci
    Ridley Scott, Lady Gaga, Jared Leto

    Licorice Pizza
    Florencia Martin (production designer), Michael Bauman (cinematographer), Andy Jurgensen (editor)

    Respect
    Jennifer Hudson, Liesl Tommy, Clint Ramos (costume designer), Lawrence Davis (hair department head), Steve Martin (makeup department head)

    NEON
    Spencer
    Kristen Stewart, Pablo Larrain

    The Worst Person in the World
    Renate Reinsve, Joachim Trier

    NETFLIX
    Don’t Look Up
    Adam McKay

    The Lost Daughter
    Dakota Johnson, Peter Sarsgaard, Maggie Gyllenhaal

    The Power of the Dog
    Benedict Cumberbatch, Kirsten Dunst, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jane Campion

    Tick, Tick…BOOM!
    Andrew Garfield, Robin de Jesus, Alexandra Shipp

    SONY PICTURES CLASSICS
    Jockey
    Clifton Collins Jr., Molly Parker, Clint Bentley

    Parallel Mothers
    Penelope Cruz, Pedro Almodovar

    UNIVERSAL
    Sing 2
    Garth Jennings

    WARNER BROS.
    Dune
    Denis Villeneuve, Mary Parent (producer)

    King Richard
    Reinaldo Marcus Green

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    Stefania
    Joined:
    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204564497

    I’ve had “Spencer” in my BP predictions for months now, but I’m seeing more and more negative responses so I’m not confident anymore. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” for me is a question mark: there’s a lot of respect for Joel Coen and the actors involved, but not much passion until now. I have both in for the moment, as well as “The Lost Daughter”. This one feels safer now than it was a few weeks ago. “House of Gucci” is still TBD for me and “CODA” is only a back-up plan if something tanks.

    I’m curious to see the response to “Belfast” when it comes out in the USA in a few days, but I’m a bit frustrated that I don’t get to see it for now (only comes out in March in Italy, lol).

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    JV
    Joined:
    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204564516

    From some Licorice Pizza reviews on Letterboxd, it looks like Hofmann’s character is indeed 15 year old in the film, while Haim’s character is 25.

    I think this will definitely be a problem, unless there’s a dark and nuanced take on it like Phantom Thread and A Teacher, but it doesn’t seem to be the case considering they’re calling the movie “sweet”. Mank had really ugly backlash because of Oldman and Middleton’s age gap.

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    veronikavoss
    Joined:
    Jul 28th, 2011
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    #1204564522

    I’ve had “Spencer” in my BP predictions for months now, but I’m seeing more and more negative responses so I’m not confident anymore. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” for me is a question mark: there’s a lot of respect for Joel Coen and the actors involved, but not much passion until now. I have both in for the moment, as well as “The Lost Daughter”. This one feels safer now than it was a few weeks ago. “House of Gucci” is still TBD for me and “CODA” is only a back-up plan if something tanks.

    I’m curious to see the response to “Belfast” when it comes out in the USA in a few days, but I’m a bit frustrated that I don’t get to see it for now (only comes out in March in Italy, lol).

    Honestly I think The Tragedy of Macbeth is likely to have enough passionate supporters to get the #1 votes necessary to get nominated once it’s seen. The Shakespearean dialogue isn’t for everyone but it does have a fanbase and everything else is pretty stellar, from the acting (Kathryn Hunter!!) to the crafts.

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