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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 14)

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204542869

    Why do you have to freak out every time someone has a different opinion than you ? I didn’t quote you so I don’t get why you’re acting this harsh.

    Recency matters because they simply won’t watch all these movies, and they don’t have time to. They will watch the ones that gets their attention, especially at the end of the year, like the ones with stacked cast, more visibility and the ones with the frontrunner in acting categories, and sometimes they don’t even watch.

    OK I’m sorry for freaking out, I didn’t actually mean it to be personal. If anything it’s also sort of a reminder to myself because we’ve definitely been in this situation before. It’s not just to you, it’s addressing a very common argument, and all of us are biased because we are rooting for some late breakers more than others :/

    Again, not to you JV, but to quickly explain: the thing is, all of us have certain late breakers we’re rooting for. I have NA, DLU, Licorice Pizza but it is entirely possible that they’re not the ones that make it and WSS, HoG and Being the Ricardos do. The reason I said all that is because A, the Academy will have the digital screeners for these films before release anyway. B, Despite always having screeners for late films, more time almost always involves some but not all late films to get in. To the best of my recollection, even critics hadn’t seen Vice, 1917, Phantom Thread when they popped up on NBR’s lists. They were the late breakers that made it: enough people in NBR had seen them because the screeners had been sent (as well as to AMPAS). I would not be surprised if the late films became available as digital screeners to AMPAS as early as mid-Nov.

    So what happens with that extra time? Not In The Heights, you’re right. But the critics groups films that played festivals that are also releasing Nov-Dec.

    Inevitably lol I know I will also be disappointed by some inclusions (ugh, American Sniper) and exclusions. It’ll be so sad if PTA and del Toro don’t make it. But at this point people on GD always tend to assume what has been seen has faded away…and that’s not true bc for many films, audiences haven’t seen them. They become relevant again. It’s not you, pretty much all of us are predicting the late breakers we hope for — but there’s 6 major contenders… more than 2 or 3 have never made it, thus my understanding of that “10th film” as driven by guilds/critics groups. Who knows what film that is, but I think it’s a film critics have seen but not necessarily audiences.

    Also, your TV examples…they’re comparing release to audiences because pretty much everyone sees the TV before. Any screeners sent are for episodes already shown.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kaziz
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    #1204542879

    With all that, you can figure out who is weak, who is likely to break late and who is a never-was no matter how much some fans want them to happen for reasons X, Y, Z. If you are objective, that is.

    Mmmmm. No actually you can’t. We quite literally did not see Sound of Metal and countless other films have a resurgence. They were small, only critics had seen them and they were released around the same time as late films. If it has been released, OK sure, but most festival films actually haven’t. King Richard, Belfast, TPOTD, The Lost Daughter…all of em really.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kaziz
    Joined:
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    #1204542921

    Btw I find it truly fascinating that from the jump the BIG consensus is for a BP/BD split. Doesn’t that point to either or both of TPOTD of Belfast being weak? It’s weird that the presumed BP winner is not the person expected to win Director. The splits eventually happen, yes, but Moonlight and La La Land e.g. were both strong contenders for both BP and BD!

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Cosmia
    Joined:
    Oct 19th, 2021
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    #1204542926

    Is it really a split? It’s quite possible that Villeneuve gets BD, but it seems like Campion is still in the driver’s seat for now.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204542932

    Is it really a split? It’s quite possible that Villeneuve gets BD, but it seems like Campion is still in the driver’s seat for now.

    Well I just mean that just by the numbers, the BP winner people are predicting is not corresponding with the BD winner. At this point, they usually correspond…

    Belfast isn’t #1 in combined odds yet but I’m guessing it will be in a few days because people are now slotting it in.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204542954

    Don’t understand the confidence for Villeneuve taking director. Unlike Best Picture, (which has the anomaly of Green Book’s 69 Metacritic score winning Best Picture) there has been a consistent trend of Best Director going to critically acclaimed films. Since the preferential ballot era all Best Director wins coincided with their films having a 86+ Metacritic score.

    Going back to the 2014 BP/BD split where 12 Years a Slave won BP and Cuaron took director: Gravity has a 96 Metacritic score and got Sandra Bullock in acting showing there was strong support among the acting branch in to voting for Cuaron in director. Dune has a 74 Metacritic score and it’s not likely to get its lead Timothée Chalamet in. Rebecca Ferguson could possibly make a dent in Supporting Actress, but Chalamet would really have to get in to show strong support among the acting branch for Dune.

     

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    Stefania
    Joined:
    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204542975

    Since the preferential ballot era all Best Director wins coincided with their films having a 86+ Metacritic score. 

    That Branagh is second in the odds also doesn’t make sense tbh.

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204542988

    Interesting thing about the Bong Joon-Ho battle against Sam Mendes in Best Director: 1917 has a 78 Metacritic score. Parasite has a 96 Metacritic score. 

    Mendes’ Best Director loss could have been attributed to the lack of critical acclaim 1917 garnered compared to Bong Joon-Ho. I’m not arguing voters actively check films Metacritic scores before casting the ballot. But there is a high correlation between high Metacritic scores and passion. Parasite‘s universal acclaim showed extreme passion among that was lingering the whole award season which was how Bong was able to upset sweeper Mendes.

    Anyways back to this season. Campion is pretty much out in front with The Power of the Dog having a 90 Metacritic score and is the unequivocal frontrunner. Gyllenhaal and Coen have films with an 86+ Metacritic score though it’s likely either will win imo. Gyllenhaal has to face the bias in the directing branch against actor and Coen’s Macbeth may turn people cold similar to Scorsese’s The Irishman. I would keep an eye out on PTA’s Licorice Pizza or Del Toro’s Nightmare Alley Metacritic scores to see if they pass the 86+ Metacritic score threshold if they could poise a threat against Campion.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    Yana
    Joined:
    Aug 29th, 2017
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    #1204542991

    But at this point people on GD always tend to assume what has been seen has faded away…and that’s not true bc for many films, audiences haven’t seen them. They become relevant again.

    It is true that people use their fave latecomers. They can’t all get in. But a lot of people also dismiss their least fave based on no info. Like House of Gucci, you’ve already dismissed it. I agree with the big point. It is true that the top 10 cannot include everything, but then why dismiss anything??

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    Michael Windfeldt
    Joined:
    Nov 22nd, 2013
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    #1204543200

    Don’t understand the confidence for Villeneuve taking director. Unlike Best Picture, (which has the anomaly of Green Book’s 69 Metacritic score winning Best Picture) there has been a consistent trend of Best Director going to critically acclaimed films. Since the preferential ballot era all Best Director wins coincided with their films having a 86+ Metacritic score.

    Going back to the 2014 BP/BD split where 12 Years a Slave won BP and Cuaron took director: Gravity has a 96 Metacritic score and got Sandra Bullock in acting showing there was strong support among the acting branch in to voting for Cuaron in director. Dune has a 74 Metacritic score and it’s not likely to get its lead Timothée Chalamet in. Rebecca Ferguson could possibly make a dent in Supporting Actress, but Chalamet would really have to get in to show strong support among the acting branch for Dune.

    The accademy are not critics. When I look at peoples response to Dune it is astounding. Do not underestimate a films chances just because of critical response.The accademy has far more in common with ordinary moviegoers than critics. Villeneuve’s direction is, in my opinion, the best because it is the most difficult and he has brought an epic to life. And he has given me a feeling I have not felt since The Lord of the rings trilogy. I dont expect him to win, but in terms of pure craftmanship he should.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204543262

    Since the preferential ballot era all Best Director wins coincided with their films having a 86+ Metacritic score.

    Going back to the 2014 BP/BD split where 12 Years a Slave won BP and Cuaron took director: Gravity has a 96 Metacritic score and got Sandra Bullock in acting showing there was strong support among the acting branch in to voting for Cuaron in director. Dune has a 74 Metacritic score and it’s not likely to get its lead Timothée Chalamet in. Rebecca Ferguson could possibly make a dent in Supporting Actress, but Chalamet would really have to get in to show strong support among the acting branch for Dune.

    This is very logical, and I agree. I mostly meant I don’t get why people are predicting a BP/BD split from the beginning. McQueen was competitive, don’t remember if he was #1 but it wasn’t like Cuaron was predicted throughout the season. With Roma, both the film and director were predicted to win. On GD at least, there was correspondence or a tussle of some kind. There’s next to no confidence in Branagh judging by how overwhelmingly people are predicting Campion to win.

    Re: Dune, I agree. I am very tentative of a BD nod too tbh. It’s very impressive but I don’t see there being so much urgency given that that everyone does feel it’ll be all over techs, probably get into BP and they’re probably gonna be like “let’s wait till Part 2”. That’s what I would do, personally. I can appreciate Dune and also think other people deserve the nod more.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204543268

    The accademy are not critics. When I look at peoples response to Dune it is astounding. Do not underestimate a films chances just because of critical response.The accademy has far more in common with ordinary moviegoers than critics. Villeneuve’s direction is, in my opinion, the best because it is the most difficult and he has brought an epic to life. And he has given me a feeling I have not felt since The Lord of the rings trilogy. I dont expect him to win, but in terms of pure craftmanship he should.

    The Academy is also not you lol

    I really don’t understand this constant bashing of critics, whether they be MC scores or critics groups. The failures of JLo for Hustlers and Hawke for First Reformed etc. are constantly used as reasons that “they don’t matter” and frankly it makes zero sense because those are exceptions. If you take a look at any years’ critics leaderboard (AwardsWatch has a tracker, google it), they overwhelmingly align with what the Academy eventually goes for. They are the next step in the process of consensus shaping as to what will get in, we don’t just SKIP over to the precursors.

    And of course there’s failures to make something happen every year. But they’re few and far between, they’re pretty darn influential for the precursors and guilds. AMPAS probably doesn’t check MC scores but the next people who will be handing out wins are the very people who make up critical consensus. It makes sense!

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Gwen
    Joined:
    May 15th, 2019
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    #1204543271

    Kenneth Branagh is Variety’s cover story. He’s not fucking around…

    2022 Award Season, FYC:

    Best Picture: TITANE, L'EVENEMENT
    Best Director: JULIA DUCOURNAU
    Best Actress: JODIE COMER
    Best Actor: BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH
    Best Supporting Actress: ANN DOWD, TONI COLLETTE
    Best Supporting Actor: WILLEM DAFOE, RICHARD JENKINS

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    OscarWatcher1971
    Joined:
    Sep 24th, 2021
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    #1204543372

    Jane Campion’s Oscar you mean.

    People can argue the MC issue all they like. In the preferential era, MC scores count. TPOTD & Macbeth are the only main contenders in the winning range.

    I say it again, Green Book was an anomaly. It doesn’t mean Belfast or King Richard can’t win, it’s just less likely given their MC scores.

    2021
    Nomadland 93
    Trial of Chicago 76

    2020
    Parasite 96
    1917 76

    Profile picture
    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204543405

    Here’s a fun fact about TPOTD vs. Belfast:

    Focus Features has never won Best Picture. It has 10 nominees over 19 years, 13 if you also count the films it did not co-produce and only distributed in the US, but none of those won either. Belfast would be its first. No one’s arguing there’s a Focus Features-bias (they’ve just been vvv unlucky).

    Netflix has 5 nominees from 3 years (given the fact that I do believe “Netflix bias” existed earlier on and is much less of a factor now, that’s pretty darn impressive.) Also, Annapurna has 5 over 10 years, with no wins; A24 has 4 over 9 years with 1 obviously. Netflix’s results yield isn’t THAT weird. If anything the number of films it’s gotten into BP is…wowza.

    TPOTD and Belfast would both be firsts for their studios.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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