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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 15)

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    James Gibson
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    Ah well if you’re referring to GD odds I typically find them safely ignorable – the SAG ensemble win for Chicago 7 didn’t faze me because I’ve long felt that the Oscar BP-SAG Ensemble correlation has been far too overstated in general.

    Well, that was just an example. But that prediction was reflected here on the forums and by a lot of pundits since Trial was more “crowdpleasing” and GG bait. However Nomadland campaign and appeal was always much bigger.

    FYC: Memoria and House of Gucci for Best Picture

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    kbc
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    Well, that was just an example. But that prediction was reflected here on the forums and by a lot of pundits since Trial was more “crowdpleasing” and GG bait. However Nomadland campaign and appeal was always much bigger.

    Funny enough I thought even at the GGs Nomadland was bound to easily win the drama prize – and it did. I never figured the mediocre Chicago 7 to be much competition for it, I was more watching The Father as a potential spoiler, for example. (I’m expecting similar Sorkin mediocrity from Being the Ricardos / that peekaboo teaser indicates some lack of faith in Kidman’s portrayal, I feel / all that voiceover and barely any face? Something’s off.)

    Perhaps that was a benefit of not paying attention to the punditry pretty much at all that season – took a break after doing so rather heavily for the Parasite season.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    There was never a really strong #2 to Nomadland.

    The Father was too late on the scene to trouble it in Picture.

    This year will be far more competitive

     

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    Milk Money
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    Just saw King Richard. Will’s so winning this lol. I also think the film as a whole will be a major player come nomination time. Director is definitely not out of the question.

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    Cosmia
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    King Richard will most likely be nominated for a bunch of things but outside of Smith I can’t see it winning any of the main categories.

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    wolfali
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    People might be rooting against King Richard here, but it has the same RT rating as Belfast and both are in the 70s on MC —

    They don’t exactly have the same critical response though. Belfast almost has an 80 on Metacritic, King Richard is almost in the 60s.

    King Richard rotten tomatoes average: 7.1/10
    Belfast rotten tomatoes average: 7.9/10

    Belfast on Metacritic: 78
    King Richard on Metacritic: 71

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Babylonian
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    They don’t exactly have the same critical response though. Belfast almost has an 80 on Metacritic, King Richard is almost in the 60s. King Richard rotten tomatoes average: 7.1/10 Belfast rotten tomatoes average: 7.9/10 Belfast on Metacritic: 78 King Richard on Metacritic: 71

    7 points on Metacritic is not much of a difference…

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    wolfali
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    7 points on Metacritic is not much of a difference…

    It is a huge difference actually. The Politician season 1 has a 66 score on Metacritic and Ted Lasso season 1 has a 71 score on Metacritic (a difference of five points) and they couldn’t have had more of a difference in reception. The French Dispatch has a 74 score on Metacritic and Belfast has a 78 one yet they’re also viewed quite differently.

    Just because King Richard has a 71 score on Metacritic and Belfast has a 78 score it doesn’t mean it has ignited the same response Belfast has. It’s not like anyone would argue otherwise if they had the same difference in score between them but Belfast had one of 90 and King Richard had one of 83.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    alittle03
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    It’s not rooting against King Richard. The point is that TPOTD is a major contender yet some pundits are trying to make it a two horse Belfast-Richard race. In the preferential era, critical acclaim has trumped crowd pleasers, which is why a high MC contender such as TPOTD shouldn’t be dismissed against 2 much lower MC contenders.

    This this this. Thank you. This whole thing about being crowd-pleasing does not justify its supposed frontrunner status. I just don’t know why a movie with more acclaim with an Oscar-winning director and screenwriter on Netflix with a message that fits social themes of recent BP winners would be not be predicted to win. I don’t see Belfast/KR being strong at all at the critics awards. The Trial/Nomadland comparison is something I can’t stop thinking about and I feel like it’s going to be a repeat of this year and pundits won’t realize it until it’s too late. It feels like pundits  just liked these movies more than they thought they would and are now pushing them.

    FYC -
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, The Lost Daughter, Mass
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Fran Kranz
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Corey Hawkins, Jason Isaacs
    Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, Kirsten Dunst, Rebecca Ferguson, Martha Plimpton, Ann Dowd
    O. Screenplay: Spencer, Mass
    A. Screenplay: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter
    Score: Jonny Greenwood (Dog/Spencer)

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    wolfali
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    Even as a film has won best director and lost best picture (of which if I may point out there has only been a split four times in the past decade), the film that has won director has pretty much placed as the runner up or won another key prize:

    Roma (cinematography)
    La La Land (actress)
    The Revenant (actor)
    Gravity (film editing/cinematography)

    The stat even holds up with films that have taken best director and picture:

    Nomadland (actress)
    Parasite (original screenplay)
    The Shape of Water (production design/score)
    Birdman (original screenplay)
    The Artist (actor)
    The King’s Speech (actor/original screenplay)

    Best Picture or not, if Campion is winning director I don’t see how The Power of the Dog doesn’t also win another major award. At the moment I’m leaning towards it winning one of the acting categories (maybe Kodi?) because I think the academy will spread the wealth amongst the auteurs like they did last year and The Lost Daughter will take adapted screenplay and because I have Belfast taking cinematography.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    pedrohf2001
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    TPOTD already feels old and boring imo. I wont be bothered if Campion wins director. Think she deserves it for a long time. But I want something else winning Best Picture. A splash. Like… Dont Look Up. Or Nightmare Alley. Maybe Licorice Pizza. Or Dune. Or Tick Tick Boom.

    If TPOTD or Belfast win Best Picture my reaction and lots of people out of this bubble will react with a big “Eh”. Whole year for this?

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    H. H.
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    I only have The Lost Daughter in Best Actress and Screenplay and struggling to see what other noms it could get. I don’t think it will happen in BP.

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    Cosmia
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    I wonder how long until we get a take about how TPOTD can’t win because Nomadland won with western imagery last year

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    Lucas
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    TPOTD already feels old and boring imo.

    Didn’t even come out lol

    Nomadland (and Moonlight) had a lot of emotional weight, and felt very social relevant to their respective Oscar ceremonies. TPOTD it’s much more intellectual and some people will say that the film leaves them cold.

    Not saying it’s impossible, but I personally don’t see it as a Best Picture winner.

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