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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 15)

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204579148

    When is Don’t Look Up supposed to show for the Deadline contenders?

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    lorelei lor
    Joined:
    Dec 20th, 2017
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    #1204579152

    Anyone feel like Passing is more likely to get in than The Lost Daughter?

    Yes.

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    film123
    Joined:
    Sep 12th, 2021
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    #1204579161

    Yes.

    I think Passing could be nominated in Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, cinematography, and costumes.

    As for The Lost Daughter, I can only see Actress and Adapted Screenplay being it’s nominations. Buckley and Johnson don’t have a shot getting in supporting.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204579167

    The films are so similar it’s so peculiar. Both are from actor to director auteurs, both films have similar metacritic scores, both are from Netflix, both are from prestigious novels, both have strong suooortint performances. It’s difficult to gauge which movie AMPAS will resonate more with.

    They’re also similar to TPOTD in that they’re not only female directed but they’re all similarly challenging films that don’t tell you what to think. TPOTD has the “genre trappings” of a western, but they’re all kind of highly literary psycho-dramas. I suppose TPOTD benefits from being more of an ensemble, but yeah all 3 have likenesses. But since TPOTD is in, yeahhhhh I feel like the other 2 are competing.

    It’s hard though honestly. If you’d asked me after I’d watched them, I’d have said The Lost Daughter because Passing is by far the most emotionally distant and challenging of the 3. But people REALLY seem to love it! Perhaps The Lost Daughter will get a similar response, the Gothams at least seem to indicate that that’s possible.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    film123
    Joined:
    Sep 12th, 2021
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    #1204579183

    They’re also similar to TPOTD in that they’re not only female directed but they’re all similarly challenging films that don’t tell you what to think. TPOTD has the “genre trappings” of a western, but they’re all kind of highly literary psycho-dramas. I suppose TPOTD benefits from being more of an ensemble, but yeah all 3 have likenesses. But since TPOTD is in, yeahhhhh I feel like the other 2 are competing. It’s hard though honestly. If you’d asked me after I’d watched them, I’d have said The Lost Daughter because Passing is by far the most emotionally distant and challenging of the 3. But people REALLY seem to love it! Perhaps The Lost Daughter will get a similar response, the Gothams at least seem to indicate that that’s possible.

    Another similarity is both filmed performed exceedingly well at Gothams. One of them is getting nominated. I don’t know which one.

    The Lost Daughter has a much stronger pedigree with Olivia Colman herself, Ed Harris, and rising star Jessie Buckley. It’s possible the British voting bloc can support TLD to a Best Picture nomination alone. Not to mention the fact the movie won a big prize at Venice. December release will lead the movie into regency bias as well.

    Passing is competitive in more categories and has a VERY win competitive category thanks to the sublime Ruth Negga in Supporting Actress. The film is more socially relevant and could appeal to POC sensibilities. Also the film is likely to be supported more by general audiences with a striking top 10 most watched placement on Netflix and a smashing 91% Rotten Tomatoes audience score.

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    kbc
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204579217

    Deadline’s Contenders L.A. Reports
    (Still think Searchlight’s passing on this event, for whatever reason, was a mistake. It would have offered the studio a chance to simultaneously revive talk of The Eyes of Tammy Faye, capitalise on The French Dispatch’s box office and positive audience reception, and allay worries and stoke anticipation over the delayed Nightmare Alley. That was all just sitting there. 🤷‍♂️
    I get the perception that Disney has an awards ambivalence toward – or perhaps simply dimmed expectations for – Fox leftovers such as West Side Story and The Last Duel, but don’t see how or why that should be extending to Searchlight.)

    Being the Ricardos

    Belfast

    Blue Bayou

    The Boss Baby: Family Business

    C’mon C’mon

    CODA

    Don’t Look Up

    Dune

    The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

    The Good Boss

    A Hero

    House of Gucci

    I’m Your Man

    Jockey

    King Richard

    Leave No Traces

    Licorice Pizza

    The Lost Daughter

    Mass

    Parallel Mothers

    The Power of the Dog

    Red Rocket

    Respect

    Sing 2

    Spencer

    Spirit Untamed

    The Tender Bar

    Tick Tick Boom

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    The Worst Person in the World

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    Cosmia
    Joined:
    Oct 19th, 2021
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    #1204579305

    Boss Baby is coming

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204579380

    Another similarity is both filmed performed exceedingly well at Gothams. One of them is getting nominated. I don’t know which one.

    The Lost Daughter has a much stronger pedigree with Olivia Colman herself, Ed Harris, and rising star Jessie Buckley. It’s possible the British voting bloc can support TLD to a Best Picture nomination alone. Not to mention the fact the movie won a big prize at Venice. December release will lead the movie into regency bias as well.

    Passing is competitive in more categories and has a VERY win competitive category thanks to the sublime Ruth Negga in Supporting Actress. The film is more socially relevant and could appeal to POC sensibilities. Also the film is likely to be supported more by general audiences with a striking top 10 most watched placement on Netflix and a smashing 91% Rotten Tomatoes audience score.

    I think they’re both shoo-ins for Adapted Screenplay at the very least: Gyllenhaal’s got screenplay prizes, Hall has gotten SO MUCH ink for her screenplay from all the most prestigious critics (Manohla Dargis! Richard Brody! Hilton Als! The list is never-ending).

    In terms of the ensemble, yeah The Lost Daughter has more pedigree, bigger ensemble, but Passing‘s no slouch either. Hall, Thompson, Negga, Holland, Skarsgaard, plus Forest Whitaker is a producer, Chaz Ebert is an executive producer. Yeah I dunno…it’s close, honestly. They’re both two of my fave films of the year, I truly hope there’s some way they can both make it even though I know it’s unlikely.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Stefania
    Joined:
    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204579552

    I currently have “The Lost Daughter” in my BP predictions and “Passing” just outside (11th spot). The reason is a strong lead performance by a recent Oscar winner and a screenplay that won an important award. By the way, I’m not completely buying all the overhype from the reactions to the late breakers: they’re not all getting into BP.

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    Iamelle
    Joined:
    Dec 18th, 2018
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    #1204579562

    They’re also similar to TPOTD in that they’re not only female directed but they’re all similarly challenging films that don’t tell you what to think. TPOTD has the “genre trappings” of a western, but they’re all kind of highly literary psycho-dramas. I suppose TPOTD benefits from being more of an ensemble, but yeah all 3 have likenesses. But since TPOTD is in, yeahhhhh I feel like the other 2 are competing. It’s hard though honestly. If you’d asked me after I’d watched them, I’d have said The Lost Daughter because Passing is by far the most emotionally distant and challenging of the 3. But people REALLY seem to love it! Perhaps The Lost Daughter will get a similar response, the Gothams at least seem to indicate that that’s possible.

     

    The thing with The Lost Daughter is that it’s so divisive, and that alone make me doubt it will go far enough to get a BP nom. I do think it will get best actress and AS!

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    kbc
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204579584

    FORBES: The well-reviewed and thus-far well-received Focus Features release Belfast has been pegged as a “by default” Oscar frontrunner. It’s a movie that everyone likes, even if not everyone loves. It’s an absolutely rock-solid character dramedy, with strong performances (including meaty turns from Caitríona Balfe, Ciarán Hinds and Jamie Dornan) and a cultural specificity which makes it all the more universal.
    The picture opened with $1.8 million over the weekend from a $640,000 Friday in 580 theaters. Oscar buzz notwithstanding, a star-free, black-and-white coming-of-age period piece drama was never going to break big on opening weekend, but its 2.8x multiplier is encouraging. Focus is clearly relying on strong word-of-mouth and long awards-season legs for this crowdpleaser.

    Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch earned $1.8 million (-29%) in weekend four for a halfway decent $11.6 million 24-day cume. The $25 million film has already earned $14.7 million overseas and $26.3 million worldwide cume.
    If it becomes part of the Oscar race, it could be a genuine theatrical hit. For a film that Film Twitter swears that Disney has been trying to bury, it’s certainly not going anywhere.

    Spencer
    earned $1.531 million in 1,265 theaters, dropping just 27% from its $2.104 million debut weekend. Considering the arthouse/less-than-commercial nature of the film, that’s a credit to Neon and/or the respective fanbases for Kristen Stewart and the late Princess Di.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    JV
    Joined:
    Dec 31st, 2019
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    Posts:
    #1204579589

    The race is over. They are sweeping.

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    OscarWatcher1971
    Joined:
    Sep 24th, 2021
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    #1204579630

    Stunning that less than $2m for Belfast is being spun as a triumph. It isn’t, but it shows already the campaign is going into overdrive. They know low box office will harm the “crowd pleasing” narrative

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    MD
    Joined:
    Dec 25th, 2017
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    #1204579633

    The thing with The Lost Daughter is that it’s so divisive, and that alone make me doubt it will go far enough to get a BP nom. I do think it will get best actress and AS!

    Divisiveness is not as important seeing as PYW had no problem getting in and people were screaming ‘divisive’ about that one too. But PYW was very topical going with with the “Me Too” zeitgeist. The thing is besides Actress and Screenplay what other categories can it get in? I think these two nominations are its peak and that’s perfectly fine. And the comparison with The Father kind of falls flat to me. The Father was way baitier, had Anthony Freaking Hopkins delivering a tour de force performance that simply wasn’t missing, it could also get into Supporting Actress, Editing and Production Design.

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    pedrohf2001
    Joined:
    Jan 27th, 2021
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    #1204579640

    Stunning that less than $2m for Belfast is being spun as a triumph. It isn’t, but it shows already the campaign is going into overdrive.

    You sound so mad and desperate. I don’t want Belfast to win. But I absolutely don’t want The Power of the Bore to win either. Fuck my life.

    Also. People still trying to make box office a thing in the today we live, is hilarious because they only care about it when it suits them.

    Stop. Box Office has become irrelevant for awards season. The Academy doesnt care. It only needs a good streaming distribution and campaigning. That’s it. Enough of the BO nonsense. Please

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