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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 17)

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  • Profile picture
    JV
    Joined:
    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204607657

    Lol at the Richard Jenkins predictions. We’re almost at December!

    The Humans is not getting anything when A24 doesn’t care about it and is dumping it on Showtime without any promotion. The movie itself is not Oscar material.

    Gothams also ignored it completely.

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    M
    Joined:
    Sep 27th, 2017
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    #1204607661

    Not Jared Leto going up….

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    kbc
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204607664

    by

    Lol at the Richard Jenkins predictions. We’re almost at December!

    The Humans is not getting anything when A24 doesn’t care about it and is dumping it on Showtime without any promotion. The movie itself is not Oscar material.

    Gothams also ignored it completely.

    Yep – here I part with Vulture and Anne Thompson / I think Jeffrey Wright, among others, has a better shot at a nom than Jenkins rn.

    In addition, I find it unlikely that Lost Daughter will get a BP nom over Spencer but then Gyllenhaal gets passed over in BD in favor of Larrain, as Vulture sees it. Anne Thompson now has Spencer making BP, but not Lost Daughter, and has neither Larrain nor Gyllenhaal making BD. Her choice of Almodovar to make the cut for BD seems more likely imo than either Larrain or Gyllenhaal rn. (And I think Parallel Mothers has a much stronger shot at a BP nom than either Spencer or Lost Daughter.)

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204607843

    The Lost Daughter is plenty strong, it hasn’t even peaked yet—it’s out on Netflix end of this year. Very strong in fact—it’s just that I also think Passing is possible and it’s gonna be one of those. Spencer is also perfectly possible. Their blithe dismissal is what happens when you unreasonably overload your plate onto late breakers & “crowd-pleasers” and do not account for critics groups—but whatever, in even 2 weeks from now this will become clearer. I think Vulture predicting The Lost Daughter makes perfect sense.

    It’s the West Side Story prediction that is sending me.

    And re: The Humans being “dumped”—man, we get to WATCH IT. And why isn’t it “Oscar material”!? It’s really good! Jenkins is really wonderful, everybody else is great and nobody stands out (I’d argue Feldstein does) but Jenkins certainly does.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204607861

    I always LOL at predictions that have all 4 Belfast stars getting in, though. Yeaaaaaaah, no. Not even that silly Sunset Pundits Circle nominated more than 2.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kbc
    Joined:
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    #1204607867

    The Lost Daughter is plenty strong, it hasn’t even peaked yet—it’s out on Netflix end of this year. Very strong in fact—it’s just that I also think Passing is possible and it’s gonna be one of those. Spencer is also perfectly possible. Their blithe dismissal is what happens when you unreasonably overload your plate onto late breakers & “crowd-pleasers” and do not account for critics groups—but whatever, in even 2 weeks from now this will become clearer. I think Vulture predicting The Lost Daughter makes perfect sense.

    I think critics groups, on the whole, are going to favour Parallel Mothers / which also has yet to peak / over both Spencer and The Lost Daughter, which is why Anne Thompson’s predix of PM nominations in BP, BD, best actress and screenplay make the most sense to me / I don’t think either Spencer or Lost Daughter are as likely to manage that.

    I would like to see Passing overperform current consensus and score even in BP and BD – perhaps a big Monday at the Gothams can start it down the path.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    alittle03
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    Sep 16th, 2020
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    #1204607872

    I always LOL at predictions that have all 4 Belfast stars getting in, though. Yeaaaaaaah, no. Not even that silly Sunset Pundits Circle nominated more than 2.

    Yeah, I’m predicting an ultimate Dornan and Dench snub for both Supporting categories (I’m partly predicting it for the former because I want it to happen, but I also have more pragmatic reasons behind it, as well), while Hinds and Balfe make it in and are potentially win-competitive.

    FYC -
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, The Lost Daughter, Mass
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Fran Kranz
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Corey Hawkins, Jason Isaacs
    Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, Kirsten Dunst, Rebecca Ferguson, Martha Plimpton, Ann Dowd
    O. Screenplay: Spencer, Mass
    A. Screenplay: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter
    Score: Jonny Greenwood (Dog/Spencer)

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    kaziz
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    #1204607910

    I think critics groups, on the whole, are going to favour Parallel Mothers / which also has yet to peak / over both Spencer and The Lost Daughter, which is why Anne Thompson’s predix of PM nominations in BP, BD, best actress and screenplay make the most sense to me / I don’t think either Spencer or Lost Daughter are as likely to manage that.

    I would like to see Passing overperform current consensus and score even in BP and BD – perhaps a big Monday at the Gothams can start it down the path.

    I mean… I wouldn’t dislike that at all, it’s a perfectly good movie.

    I’ve sort of always suspected that with the bajillion screeners they have, many AMPAS members vote based on the lists and buzz they see from fave critics and journos. Which is why none of these 4 are likely to be unseen. Something like The Humans — yeah, very possibly.

    But not Passing, not with the ink it’s getting from NYTimes and New Yorker, and I really should stress: it’s the one film that’s gotten the most “prestige” critic backing (like….. Richard Brody isn’t giving other things 100s!)

    And not the other 3 either, because they have pedigree and Best Actress contenders. Pablo Larrain’s buzz is more now that it was with Jackie, Almodovar…I dunno? Let’s see? Almodovar is tricky because it’s always more about his politics. And not in English. The writers branch loves him, but they’ll love Passing and The Lost Daughter too (venerated authors, acclaimed adaptations). I don’t know, but it IS somewhat about buzz and critics groups now.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204607913

    Yeah, I’m predicting an ultimate Dornan and Dench snub for both Supporting categories (I’m partly predicting it for the former because I want it to happen, but I also have more pragmatic reasons behind it, as well), while Hinds and Balfe make it in and are potentially win-competitive.

    Dench, I just have trouble seeing. It’s a very competitive year in the category, and I don’t even know how Balfe seemingly does enough but clearly she does so she’s in but with all that competition, I just don’t see it for both of them. Basically, yep same as what you said, but if 3 made it in, I…kinda think Dench will be the snub instead of Dornan just based on how the category is SO STACKED.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Stefania
    Joined:
    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204607957

    I currently have “Spencer” and “The Lost Daughter” in my BP predictions, because I don’t have faith in “West Side Story” (or any other musical this year). “Parallel Mothers” is a good movie, but it would have to be stronger in my opinion to make it in BP and BD like Anne Thompson hopes. There is a subplot that even though it’s about Spanish recent history is very relevant everywhere. I hope viewers aren’t getting scared that they don’t know enough about Spanish history and get this part because it’s what ties the movie at the end with a ribbon. We’ll see if critics pick it.

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    Milk Money
    Joined:
    Oct 2nd, 2013
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    #1204608000

    Passing’s best chance of nominations lies in supporting and screenplay. Don’t see it happening outside of those unless the GG throws it a few lifelines.

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204608092

    Did anyone know a new Macbeth teaser was released yesterday? This movie’s buzz is so muted.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    Heptapod
    Joined:
    Sep 8th, 2021
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    #1204608180

    Well whenever NBR does release their winners, here are my predictions!

    Best Film – Licorice Pizza
    Best Director – Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
    Best Actor – Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress – Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
    Best Supporting Actor – Jared Leto, House of Gucci
    Best Supporting Actress – Ruth Negga, Passing
    Best Original Screenplay – C’mon C’mon
    Best Adapted Screenplay – The Power of the Dog
    Breakthrough Performance – Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
    Best Directorial Debut – Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
    Best Ensemble – Don’t Look Up
    Top Ten Films – C’mon C’mon, Don’t Look Up, Dune, The Humans, King Richard, The Last Duel, Passing, The Power of the Dog, Spencer, The Tragedy of Macbeth

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    Chitanda170
    Joined:
    Apr 1st, 2020
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    #1204608452

    Well whenever NBR does release their winners, here are my predictions!

    Best Film – Licorice Pizza
    Best Director – Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
    Best Actor – Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress – Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
    Best Supporting Actor – Jared Leto, House of Gucci
    Best Supporting Actress – Ruth Negga, Passing
    Best Original Screenplay – C’mon C’mon
    Best Adapted Screenplay – The Power of the Dog
    Breakthrough Performance – Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
    Best Directorial Debut – Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
    Best Ensemble – Don’t Look Up
    Top Ten Films – C’mon C’mon, Don’t Look Up, Dune, The Humans, King Richard, The Last Duel, Passing, The Power of the Dog, Spencer, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    If Benedict wins this Award he isn’t winning the Oscar, lol

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    LA26
    Joined:
    Apr 3rd, 2021
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    #1204608474

    If Benedict wins this Award he isn’t winning the Oscar, lol

    Don’t they have a history of not awarding the actors that eventually go on to win Oscars? The most recent one they got right was Brad Pitt for OUATIH.

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