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Honestly so mad that Apple was the one to snatch CODA. If it had been given more/better promotion, it totally could have been the Big Sick/Crazy Rich Asians of this year: the feel-good populist film that ends up performing beyond expectations at precursors. Not to say that it can’t still happen (I’m still predicting it at PGA), but with Apple likely amassing all their attention behind Macbeth, I doubt it goes as far as it has the potential to.
And Swan Song. Though Apple is bringing CODA along with Swan and Macbeth to the NYC Contenders event (post-NBR/NYFCC, which will provide an interesting backdrop for that event and the films both repped and absent).
FYC
Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
Best Adapted Screenplay: David KajganichI haven’t seen Licorice Pizza yet but based on the trailer I don’t think it has any chance whatsoever of winning BP or Best Director. I think stanning is going on with this movie big time.
Sorry not sorry for liking one of the best filmmakers working today.
Because Branagh already commands industry respect as a filmmaker, with his previous directing nom for Henry V.
He had a lot of duds since Henry V. Respect must also be maintained and nurtured.
Not the specialty success Neon had hoped for
Neon's SPENCER lost nearly 25% (-311) of its theaters in just its 3rd week of release, dropping -55% w/ $690k, $6M total.
— Elf Relations Co. (@ERCboxoffice) November 21, 2021
Netflix’s The Power of the Dog opened in 40 theaters two weeks ahead of its streaming debut. (We estimate it grossed around $125,000.)
This may be a year in which box office loses some of its awards influence. Belfast, which dropped 47% in its second week and goes to over 1,000 theaters next weekend, will not grab headlines with its gross; nor will The Power of the Dog, which will mostly be seen at Netflix.
The most complete streaming outlet anywhere is the one for Academy members, which encourages voters to see the films at home. They know better than anyone that theater tickets are no longer the sole arbiter of momentum.
A24 released Mike Mills’s black-and-white family melodrama C’mon C’mon into six theaters this weekend. The well-reviewed (92% and 8.2/10 on Rotten Tomatoes) flick, starring Joaquin Phoenix as a journalist entrusted with the care of his young nephew (Woody Norman) during a cross-country trip, earned $134,447 this weekend, giving it a robust $26,889 per-theater average.
That’s the biggest per-theater average of the so-called pandemic era, ahead of even the $1.3 million debut in 52 theaters for The French Dispatch. That Wes Anderson charmer has stuck around, with a current cume of $13 million domestic and $32 million worldwide.
Among other Oscar contenders, Kristen Stewart’s Spencer has earned $6.1 million in 17 days, while Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast has earned $3.5 million in 10 days.
All hopes rest with Ridley Scott’s House of Gucci as the Lady Gaga/Adam Driver melodrama opens over Thanksgiving.
FYC
Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
Best Adapted Screenplay: David KajganichHe had a lot of duds since Henry V. Respect must also be maintained and nurtured.
Okay? I’m just not convinced the directors branch will care about those. If he misses it won’t be because he directed Artemis Fowl.
Cmon Cmon won the Cameraimage award from Macbeth and Dune. No mention of the other B & W contender, the BP “front runner”
1 The Power of the Dog (Critics pick + Jane Campion + Netflix’s top priority + incredible festival run + contender in many categories above and below the line + will work for younger and older members of AMPAS)
2 Belfast (TIFF Audience Award + strong in acting categories + in the vein of other Oscar Dramas + Focus’ biggest contender + strong tech possibilities)
3 Licorice Pizza (PTA + possible screenplay win + could over-perform in nominations + loved by almost everyone who has seen it)
4 Dune (Respected director + biggest BTL player + popular source material + strong audience reception + one of the most talked about movies of the year)
5 King Richard (This year’s “Hidden Figures”. Based on a true story + crowdpleasing + better than expected critic reviews + Best Actor frontrunner + WB will campaign hard)
6 Don’t Look Up (Everyone will be talking about it + Adam McKay + INSANE cast + good reviews + Netflix + contender for many categories)
7 Nightmare Alley (By BP & BD Winner + stacked cast + great release date + Searchlight’s biggest push + massive BTL player)
8 The Lost Daughter (Established actress’ directorial debut + highly acclaimed screenplay + Olivia Colman + strong festival run + Netflix campaign + important topics)
9 The Hand of God (Solid reception + amazing audience response + super Academy friendly + European branch support + Sorrentino potentially gets foreign director slot + Netflix)
10 Flee (Universally praised by both critics & audiences + strong campaigning by Neon + good release date + resonant subject + support from foreign, documentary & animation branch)Best Picture
Power of the Dog
Belfast
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Passing
Being The Ricardos
The Tragedy of MacBethDirectors
Jane Campion
PT Anderson
Guillermo Del Toro
Steven Spielberg
Adam McKayI had already seen KR 2 months ago, that’s why I was stanning it. Thus far it’s my favourite BP contender. It just made me feel great, solid movie too. Will it the most exceptional BP winner? No, but until I see Pizza and Alley, everything else especially Belbore is just meh.
In terms of who the international director could be, I think Ducournau is looking much better right now than Farhadi, Trier, and even Almodóvar. Practically all directors I’ve heard talking about the film have praised it and her directing. While TWPITW and A Hero are a lot safer in International Film, I don’t see either winning or branching out beyond that. Sure, Titane won’t be liked by all of AMPAS, but time and time again we’ve seen many branches rallying behind the film with more passion regardless of whether it’s completely “friendly”. 5 years ago, who would’ve known a movie about a woman sleeping with a fish would win Best Picture & Director or that a movie about a woman avenging her friend’s sexual assault would be nominated for 5 Oscars and win Best Original Screenplay against Aaron Sorkin? An International film has won best picture, we just had the second female Best Director winner, and auteurs like Pawlikowski (who beat the Director of that year’s Best Picture winner, as well as Bradley Cooper and two massive tech players for a director slot) and Vinterberg (who beat out Aaron Sorkin, the film that won Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Actor, Regina King, and a highly acclaimed film about the Black Panther party) have shown that you don’t need a Best Picture nomination to get that director slot, so why can’t she do it? If a movie has good enough word of mouth and a strong group of fans within the Academy (both of which I think Titane has/will have), it’s a strong possibility. The other International directors could end up surprising, but I just don’t see it happening yet. And while I’m still predicting Sorrentino to get that international slot, I don’t think we should underestimate Ducournau, specially when she’s more likely than not to get support from the critics groups.
Best Picture
- The Power Of The Dog
- Belfast
- Licorice Pizza
- Dune
- King Richard
- Don’t Look Up
- Nightmare Alley
- West Side Story
- The Tragedy Of Macbeth
- Spencer
ALT: House Of Gucci
Best Director
- Kenneth Branagh
- Jane Campion
- Paul Thomas Anderson
- Denis Villeneuve
- Joel Coen
ALT: Joachim Trier
Movie-lover overall.
I don’t think a remake from another Oscar winner musical is gonna make it
I don’t think a remake from another Oscar winner musical is gonna make it
Is anyone here genuinely excited for WSS? I think it’s an unnecessary remake and have no enthusiasm for it.
Paul, Pablo and Paolo!
Same name in three different languages.
Make It happenWatched King Richard. Its a good movie but not really sure where the raves came from
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