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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 18)

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    Cosmia
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    #1204615519

    At this point it’s clear that it’s a major contender, but it’s less clear if that will translate to a BP win. I’m not counting anything out, but the “if you think it’s not winning everything you’re delusional” takes aren’t the tea

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    pedrohf2001
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    #1204615534

    At this point it’s clear that it’s a major contender, but it’s less clear if that will translate to a BP win. I’m not counting anything out, but the “if you think it’s not winning everything you’re delusional” takes aren’t the tea

    Stop making up quotes as if someone is saying that.

    WSS can win everything or can win nothing. All I know is that WSS is getting bunch of big nominations

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    Stefania
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    #1204615548

    The supporting categories have been tough for us to pin down this entire season, and there seems to be ample room for two of them to swoop in and change everything.

    Are we talking about the same Supporting Actress race?? That race is stacked and we haven’t even seen “Nightmare Alley” ladies yet.

    you can imagine it being a box office hit too.

    That’s wishful thinking. I can imagine mostly 60+ year old people really wanting to see WSS in a theater. I think reactions right now are overestimating the interest the GP has for this remake. I don’t see it being a top-tier contender at all.

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    SaulAtreides
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    #1204615554

    Some more WSS takes:

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    themisnnemesis
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    #1204615578

    <p style=”text-align: center;”>

    How come there is so much more activity in the best actress threads than in the best picture thread? One would think best picture would have the most hype.</p>

    The power of Gaga.

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    wolfali
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    #1204615582

    I just noticed that with the exception of The Departed (which of course was a Scorsese box office hit), every Best Picture winner since 2005 has been from a film that has premiered on the festival circuit.

    Crash (TIFF)
    No Country for Old Men (Cannes)
    Slumdog Millionaire (Telluride)
    The Hurt Locker (Venice)
    The King’s Speech (Telluride)
    The Artist (Cannes)
    Argo (Telluride)
    12 Years a Slave (Telluride)
    Birdman (Venice)
    Spotlight (Venice)
    Moonlight (Telluride)
    The Shape of Water (Venice)
    Green Book (TIFF)
    Parasite (Cannes)
    Nomadland (Venice)

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    federico rubachin
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    pedrohf2001
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    kbc
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    #1204615660

    Anne Thompson goes big on WSS in predictions update

    Amused by the reversals – Colman back (predicted post Gothams) after being bounced out twice before, Kotsur and Matlin return (more post Gothams moves), so does Bernthal but Leto remains (oy). She drops Hawkins and finally lets go of Jenkins.

    She won’t let go of Dowd (predicted but mystifying choice) and ditches Balfe (thought so) and Negga (ooph) to bring in DeBose and bring back Matlin.

    Most amused by her restoring KR and Belfast in Original Screenplay mere days after knocking both out.🤷‍♂️ This time the two international films (A Hero, Parallel Mothers) are bounced. She also dropped PM from BP and Cruz in actress, but holds on to Almodovar in BD. Go figure.

    BP
    TPOTD/KR/Dune/WSS/
    Spencer/LP/
    Bfast/TTOMb/DLU/BTR
    In: West Side Story
    Out: Parallel
    Mothers

    BD
    Campion/Villeneuve/
    Spielberg/PT Anderson/Almodovar
    In: Steven Spielberg
    Out: Joel Coen

    Actress
    Stewart/Chastain/Kidman/
    Hudson/Colman
    In: Olivia Colman
    Out: Penelope Cruz

    Actor
    Smith/Cumberbatch/
    Washington/DiCaprio/
    Garfield
    No change

    Supporting Actress
    DeBose/Ellis/Dunst/
    Dowd/Matlin
    In: Ariana DeBose, Marlee Matlin
    Out: Caitriona Balfe, Ruth Negga

    Supporting Actor
    Smit-McPhee/Hinds/Leto/
    Kotsur/Bernthal
    In: Troy Kotsur, Jon Bernthal
    Out: Richard Jenkins, Corey Hawkins

    Original Screenplay
    LP/KR/DLU/Bfast/Spencer
    In: King Richard, Belfast
    Out: A Hero, Parallel Mothers

    Adapted Screenplay
    WSS/TPOTD/Dune/CODA/Lost Daughter
    In: West Side Story
    Out: The Tragedy of Macbeth

    FYI – Thompson also added WSS to every tech category in GD but visual effects.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    kaziz
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    #1204615665

    I just noticed that with the exception of The Departed (which of course was a Scorsese box office hit), every Best Picture winner since 2005 has been from a film that has premiered on the festival circuit.

    Lol wolfali you definitely did not just notice this 😉

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kbc
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    #1204615672

    Lol wolfali you definitely did not just notice this 😉

    So WSS winning would be like Departed / nonfest crowd pleaser 🤣
    Can’t be ruled out.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    wolfali
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    #1204615676

    West Side Story
    A Westar si Bory
    A Star is Born

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    kaziz
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    #1204615703

    If WSS is in (sure, it’s totally fine that every week yet another film is “winning it all” lol as if this doesn’t happen every year) then others are out. Sorry! Being the Ricardos AND House of Gucci AND West Side Story AND Don’t Look Up AND Nightmare Alley AND The Tragedy of Macbeth AND Licorice Pizza… no lol, this would not just be breaking a stat of no more than 3 non-festival films late breakers in any given field (3 from a field of 9 was a max, in a field of 10, it would make sense for a max to be 4). But 6 or 7, lol that’s not happening.

    1. This hype legit does happen every year for late films. It does!

    2. But festival films are also opening around the same time. AMPAS members & audiences will be watching them now as well.

    3. Critics groups favor the smaller festival films and if you want to downgrade their sway in another pandemic/bad to no box office year for everything but Dune & House of Gucci, be my guest.

    4. Downgrading critics’ sway especially after they FLEXED last year what with Minari, Sound of Metal, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Father is stupid, it just is. Only two films that didn’t go to any festivals got in, and both had a fair amount of critics support, Chicago 7 didn’t have much, but it had about as much as 1917 or A Star is Born. It wasn’t Bohemian Rhapsody. Especially after everyone keeps saying the truth i.e. “box office does not tell us much”, um, like… yeah there’s no reason to think the pattern won’t hold.

    5. So much stupid stuff has been said recently (ugh this one user who somehow looks forward to The Lost Daughter because everything else is boring—it’s a great film, but based on their tastes, I don’t think they know what that film is lol). Just because you may WANT populist films to run the roost does not mean they will, and also……. we don’t know what’s “populist” anymore! Except for Dune & House of Gucci, almost nothing has proven to be populist. Tick, Tick, Boom is plenty pleasing to audiences. I have no reason to think Being the Ricardos would be more, and thus their chances seem around the same to me i.e. not great, on-the-fringe. And no, the Oscars have never actually been populist, that’s literally their whole shtick lol.

    6. Stop falling for the hype of every little thing. We’ve been seeing a LOT of things hyped and during festivals, A LOT of films show during a small span of time so you don’t get this sustained rush for every single film, except the 2-3 that make it big, but others always make it. Literally. Always.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204615722

    So WSS winning would be like Departed / nonfest crowd pleaser 🤣
    Can’t be ruled out.

    C’mon, WEST SIDE STORY won’t be The Departed of the year. It wasn’t just $$$ on the side of The Departed. If anything you make a really great point in that The Departed was…edgy and somehow was still a “crowd pleaser” like…..many films are, but somehow we’ve been fooled into believing happy, jolly family films = a crowd-pleaser.

    What’s happened to pundits honestly? No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood were good commercial successes, audiences clearly paid to watch them + critics loved them, but the audience score you see on RT has gone up over the years because they aged well.

    For some odd reason, the last 2 years pundits have been acting like the drama equivalents of Disney movies are the only possible things that audiences will like. It’s so weird!

    Not saying WSS won’t be a player. I have zero idea, I tend not to use first reactions as indicators except for techs.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    federico rubachin
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    #1204615732

    But 6 or 7, lol that’s not happening

     

    well, feinberg undestrand that and put only 3 of these in his prediction: west side story, house of gucci and being the ricardos. Probably he gonna out gucci or ricardos when he put licorice pizza in his predictions

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