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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 18)

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    kaziz
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    #1204622250

    Anne Thompson “refreshed” her GD picks again.

    While I definitely do not appreciate her essentially skipping over Passing & The Lost Daughter, I kiiiinda get…the logic of what she’s doing. She’s strategically capping the late breakers and re-evaluating the strength of the festival films. The supporting acting winners are…messy. Love Kodi obviously. I don’t really see the argument yet, but I presume it is that if she predicts TPOTD to win, she thinks there’ll be an acting win too and she’s just too scared to predict Cumberbatch or Dunst lol. Which makes no sense to me, Debose is a breakout star not a revolutionary immediate frontrunner.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    wolfali
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    kaziz
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    #1204622256

    Yeri Han was so robbed for Minari.

    I actually find this pretty galling: Yes, Balfe is an immensely talented actress and she does her absolute best in a film that doesn’t quite deserve her…

    …Yeri Han played the same archetype like a FIDDLE and everybody widely dismissed her as doing nothing. It truly felt…different. So yeah…that ain’t fair.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Rishabh Chaturvedi
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    kaziz
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    #1204622338

    MY GIANT RECONSIDERATION OF KING RICHARD

    Sorry about this essay! I don’t see why we can’t do our own reviews 🙂 All of us are just as good at them as any pundit!

    I watched King Richard again because I just thought…well, I liked it enough the first time and if we’re watching TPOTD multiple times to get it, then why not extend the same generosity to KR?

    I cannot get over how much this feels like Hidden Figures. If it won BP, I would be kinda…..OK with it, in the sense that it’s a good story with good actors and it’s heartening. But like Hidden Figures, it’s…weak on messaging. I do like both, but they’re not Moonlight or Passing. In a film partly about adversity in the racial politics of sports, it’s great — but is it an insightful or of-this-time winner? No… even Hidden Figures felt old-fashioned when it came out.

    Performances:
    Will Smith: I think I’ve been hard on Will Smith. He’s doing something cool, it’s “subtle” but not really, more… he really is trying hard to get into character and 75% of the time, he’s there. I liked him more this time, I feel like I was too harsh earlier. It’s like Taraji P. Henson: she was wonderful!! She DESERVED a nod (I think?) And maybe even a win… I would not have been upset. Both elevate the script.

    Aunjanue Ellis: Listen… she can do no wrong. And this is verrrrrry much Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures sort of impact. Octavia was my MVP, hands down. That bathroom scene with Dunst clinched it. She deserved the nod. Ellis deserves the nod, she clinches it with the kitchen scene and she’s the grounded presence of the film (like Plemons in TPOTD) and that realness is my weakness, I adore actors who can do that, it’s so hard.

    But…

    Saniyya Sidney is just BETTER! She’s my real MVP, it’s like if Janelle Monae, who was lovely but under-written, was better & had more screentime than Octavia in Hidden Figures. And of course Sidney is not an acting legend yet like Ellis but she’s what keeps this story CRACKLING, the tennis scenes FUN. She’s the heart of the movie, Ellis is a digression because the film is not interested in what she says in that kitchen scene. So a nod for Ellis? PLEASE!!! But c’mon, be fair… she needs a better vehicle. I didn’t think Octavia should’ve won, and I don’t think Ellis does either (assuming the current top 7 in GD odds make up top 5). If we’re really being fair though, Sidney had the material. But Ellis deserves Oscar attention for her body of work & I don’t mind her getting it for that. A star like Sidney will get her due in time.

    Better than Belfast?:
    Yes. I like this film much more than Belfast. It does hint at complications in a way I’m not sure Belfast does, and it’s just…more fun. It’s……kinda long but whatever, y’all who hate TPOTD think that about it so lol forget that. I think maybe Original Screenplay would be kinda good. Haven’t seen DLU or Licorice Pizza yet, but yes KR is a solid screenplay, and maybe it should win. Knowing myself, I will probably prefer LP, DLU & I love C’mon C’mon. But I wouldn’t mind KR taking Screenplay. It’s somewhat deserving.

    Wins:
    – I’m slightly okay with Smith winning. Cumberbatch is far more IN his character & it’s a much more difficult, complicated, poetic character but I see what Smith is trying to do and he…mostly succeeds.

    – I’m not okay with Ellis winning but she’s a VERY deserved lock. Give her all the films Olivia Colman is getting and she will soon be widely regarded as on par with Octavia Spencer, Viola Davis, Regina King as she deserves to be! She’s FANTASTIC man, she is soooooo bloody good and I want that gaze to take over cinema. But this year: Dunst, Negga, Buckley are better (OK now I’d say Ellis > Johnson & Plimpton).

    – Nominate it everywhere for Ensemble. Smith is arguably the weakest because his job is the hardest but this is a FANTASTIC ensemble. Yep, get it in there. Sidney is going places: she reminds me of Lyric Ross from This Is Us… really potent presence. Demi Singleton too. Jon Bernthal is not a B-movie actor, cast him more.

    Why it shouldn’t win BP:
    If it wins BP, okay… but we have a revolutionary film on race that speaks to everyone in the world this year: Passing. So yes there will be a feeling of: this is not the moment, it’s not complex enough or insightful enough. It’s a biopic so that’s okayyyyy… but this will not DEFINE how we see Black cultural icons either, because it doesn’t challenge Richard enough. It shies away from going there and ends up as a hagiography (a triumphant hero tale). What’s the broad impact it will have? I don’t see it. It’s a fun movie that runs too long. Good. Deserved nominee.

    But there’s far better films. From the point of view of film criticism, we have an array of films this year that challenges some very huuuuge ideas that culture today leaves simplistic (how to understand toxic masculinity, fame, how “race” is constructed, how motherhood is not some virginal thing, how teenagers’ lives deserve attention). I’d always like to see a winner that will be a Criterion masterpiece. It could be a box office smash or an indie, but I’d like that IMPACT.

    It won’t win imo. But just to consider it, I thought it would be nice to evaluate as generously as possible? If you disagree with me, feel free to challenge me, I’d be happy to discuss this in earnest the way I’ve discussed TPOTD 🙂 (I’ve decided to be a nicer person on GD lol)

    THE END.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Marcus.H
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    #1204622345

    I just watched Tick Tick Boom. It’s a fine film but nothing award-winning-worthy, including Garfield. Once again, I find those early Twitter reactions and critic reviews very hyperbolic.

    Yeah, this is not getting into BP.

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    kaziz
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    #1204622350

    I just watched Tick Tick Boom. It’s a fine film but nothing award-winning-worthy, including Garfield. Once again, I find those early Twitter reactions and critic reviews very hyperbolic.

    Yeah, this is not getting into BP.

    It might…

    Just because you & I both know undeserving films get in every year lol. Yes it’s not deserving… I actually think it’s a directorial mess. It has a crown jewel in Garfield and doesn’t use it properly, trying WAY too hard. Props to Garfield for rising above it somehow. There was no need to over-sentimentalize an already sentimental story 🤷🏽‍♂️

    But I don’t think it will. TPOTD and DLU are locks, and I…maybe stubbornly, you can think I’m stupid…think The Lost Daughter (big Gothams winner, huge with critics, important and relevant) or Passing (big at HCA, huge with critics, probably the most important film of the year imo, social relevance is overwhelming). So 3 Netflix films?

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    pedrohf2001
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    #1204622356

    What?? Tick Tick Boom was fantastic. Your guys opinions are not mine so they are wrong.

    Lol. Joking. But I loved Tick Tick Boom. It’s actually my favourite movie of the year actually. As of now. Maybe it’s bias because I cried A LOT during the movie. And I cried even more after the movie when I went up searching more about Jonathan Larson. So sad.

    This movie touched me so much…whatever.

    Bias aside as much as possible, I still think TTB is getting a BP nom. And I hope so.

    As of The Lost Daughter, I do think there’s a chance of it also getting into BP right now. I actually have it in my BP line-up and will keep it for now.

    As for Passing, I really don’t know and have no idea.

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    kaziz
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    #1204622390

    Lol. Joking. But I loved Tick Tick Boom. It’s actually my favourite movie of the year actually. As of now. Maybe it’s bias because I cried A LOT during the movie. And I cried even more after the movie when I went up searching more about Jonathan Larson. So sad.

    Honestly, pedroh (is that your name? Haha I always feel weird using usernames with numbers in them), I get that. I mean, the movie really did move me! The thing that happened with me was that Andrew Garfield (or Robin de Jesus!) would bring me to tears every 10 minutes. I was laughing, crying, Garfield is electric and RAW. But every time I teared up, the editing brought in all these weird shots. It’s bloody weird but I feel like Garfield didn’t get to do a single musical number with the camera on him the whole time without interruption? There was just…… soooooo much! Garfield has EVERYTHING on his face but Lin Manuel Miranda made huge scenes into flashback cuts and montages and that made my tears dry up because…….it was Garfield’s performance driving everything.

    I do get loving it. I can see it. I was just frustrated. You know the big scene with Robin de Jesus? That pissed me off because Garfield was REALLY SELLING both his sadness and…his selfishness? Like…this is not about him, it’s about his best friend! So when he’s giving me all this complexity in his performance, why am I suddenly watching VHS tapes? You know? It just became amateur hour sometimes and it pissssssed me off because I really really think there’s an edit of this film that is near perfect, but this is over-edited.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    SaulAtreides
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    #1204622426

    Sight & Sound released their top 50 movies of the year:

    https://www.bfi.org.uk/sight-and-sound/polls/50-best-films-2021

    TPOTD is the highest placing of the likely nominees at 6. Summer of Soul is the highest placing docu at 8. Titane and Drive My Car are both top 5. Dune is the only blockbuster on the least with a respectable 14. Belfast and King Richard don’t make the cut. Also no WSS, MacBeth, or Licorice Pizza, but I assume they didn’t see those yet.

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    JV
    Joined:
    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204622495

    Sight & Sound released their top 50 movies of the year:

    https://www.bfi.org.uk/sight-and-sound/polls/50-best-films-2021

    TPOTD is the highest placing of the likely nominees at 6. Summer of Soul is the highest placing docu at 8. Titane and Drive My Car are both top 5. Dune is the only blockbuster on the least with a respectable 14. Belfast and King Richard don’t make the cut. Also no WSS, MacBeth, or Licorice Pizza, but I assume they didn’t see those yet.

    Full list for those who don’t want to click it
    50 – Quo Vadis, Aida ?
    49- Cry Macho (??)
    48- After Love
    47- The Hand of God
    46- Friends and Strangers
    45- Limbo
    44- Belle
    43- Undine
    42- Shiva Baby
    41-. The Tsuga Diaries
    40-. Playground
    39-. Beginning
    38-. Compartment No6
    37-. Red Rocket
    36-. Judas and the Black Messiah
    35-. Sound of Metal
    34-. Minari
    33-. The Card Counter
    32-. Benediction
    31-. Ear for Eye
    30-. Hit the Road
    29-. Pig
    28-. The Father
    27-. Benedetta
    26-. Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn
    25-. Zola
    24-. Azor
    23-. The French Dispatch
    22-. Nomadland
    21-. The Lost Daughter
    20-. Il Buco
    19-. Flee
    18-. Censor
    17-. Fist Cow
    16-. The Worst Person in the World
    15-. Spencer
    14-. Dune
    13-. The Velved Underground
    12-. The Green Knight
    11-. Bergman Island
    10- Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy
    9-. Annette
    8-. Summer of Soul
    7-. What do We see When We Look at the Sky?
    6-. The Power of the Dog
    5-. Titane
    4-. Memoria
    3-. Drive My Car
    2-. Petite Maman
    1-. The Souvenir Part II

    Absent: Belfast, The Last Duel, King Richard, Passing, Luca, The Rescue, Parallel Mothers, I’m Your Man, Tick Tick Boom and C’mon C’mon.
    Between this and the Cahiers list, The French Dispatch seems to be playing better with European critics.

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    pedrohf2001
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    #1204622525

    NYFCC Update

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204622538

    Sight & Sound released their top 50 movies of the year:

    https://www.bfi.org.uk/sight-and-sound/polls/50-best-films-2021

    TPOTD is the highest placing of the likely nominees at 6. Summer of Soul is the highest placing docu at 8. Titane and Drive My Car are both top 5. Dune is the only blockbuster on the least with a respectable 14. Belfast and King Richard don’t make the cut. Also no WSS, MacBeth, or Licorice Pizza, but I assume they didn’t see those yet.

    S&S is a UK publication, it’s likely these just weren’t screened here in time. See First Cow, The Father, Minari, Sound of Metal, Judas, Nomadland and Quo Vadis being 2020 US releases but 2021 UK releases.

    Oscars FYC:

    "Lamb" – International Feature and all categories

    "Summer of Soul" – Picture, Film Editing and Documentary Feature

    “The Green Knight” – in all categories

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    Manav
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    Dec 21st, 2019
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    #1204622549

    Call you all imagine having to think in July that there’s a possibility for Nightmare Alley to miss Picture?

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    SaulAtreides
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    #1204622551

    S&S is a UK publication, it’s likely these just weren’t screened here in time. See First Cow, The Father, Minari, Sound of Metal, Judas, Nomadland and Quo Vadis being 2020 US releases but 2021 UK releases.

    Ah fair enough, I’m surprised the release date for Belfast is so late in the UK.

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