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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 18)

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    James Gibson
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    #1204615735

    Kaziz, you have a valid point on not many late breakers usually making in. But this year specifically many studios opted to skip certain films from festivals and release it on the latest date possible (The Lost Daughter on December 31st!) in order to keep momentum for Oscars since they’re only happening in the end of march.
    Festivals and early-ish releases are important for smaller films like Spencer or Passing because they need to generate hype in a film that is somewhat unknown. While frontloaded films like West Side Story, Don’t Look Up and perhaps Nightmare Alley don’t need that cause they have strong names attatched, a hype on their own that cements once it’s released. They will have screenings to the Academy regardless but members will be aware of their existence and will watch anyway.

    So yeah, it is a strong stat that not many late-breakers make in, but this is the year to change that and it would be a conscious decision from film producers and distributors.

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    James Gibson
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    #1204615738

    West Side Story
    A Westar si Bory
    A Star is Born

    gaga always winning

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    federico rubachin
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    #1204615740

     I tend not to use first reactions as indicators except for techs.

    but is not only first reactions, feinberg says is the frontrunner. And in other years he seems like the first to realize 1917 and promising young woman were first or second in the race

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    pedrohf2001
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    #1204615746

    If WSS is in (sure, it’s totally fine that every week yet another film is “winning it all” lol as if this doesn’t happen every year) then others are out. Sorry! Being the Ricardos AND House of Gucci AND West Side Story AND Don’t Look Up AND Nightmare Alley AND The Tragedy of Macbeth AND Licorice Pizza… no lol, this would not just be breaking a stat of no more than 3 non-festival films late breakers in any given field (3 from a field of 9 was a max, in a field of 10, it would make sense for a max to be 4). But 6 or 7, lol that’s not happening. 1. This hype legit does happen every year for late films. It does! 2. But festival films are also opening around the same time. AMPAS members & audiences will be watching them now as well. 3. Critics groups favor the smaller festival films and if you want to downgrade their sway in another pandemic/bad to no box office year for everything but Dune & House of Gucci, be my guest. 4. Downgrading critics’ sway especially after they FLEXED last year what with Minari, Sound of Metal, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Father is stupid, it just is. Only two films that didn’t go to any festivals got in, and both had a fair amount of critics support, Chicago 7 didn’t have much, but it had about as much as 1917 or A Star is Born. It wasn’t Bohemian Rhapsody. Especially after everyone keeps saying the truth i.e. “box office does not tell us much”, um, like… yeah there’s no reason to think the pattern won’t hold. 5. So much stupid stuff has been said recently (ugh this one user who somehow looks forward to The Lost Daughter because everything else is boring—it’s a great film, but based on their tastes, I don’t think they know what that film is lol). Just because you may WANT populist films to run the roost does not mean they will, and also……. we don’t know what’s “populist” anymore! Except for Dune & House of Gucci, almost nothing has proven to be populist. Tick, Tick, Boom is plenty pleasing to audiences. I have no reason to think Being the Ricardos would be more, and thus their chances seem around the same to me i.e. not great, on-the-fringe. And no, the Oscars have never actually been populist, that’s literally their whole shtick lol. 6. Stop falling for the hype of every little thing. We’ve been seeing a LOT of things hyped and during festivals, A LOT of films show during a small span of time so you don’t get this sustained rush for every single film, except the 2-3 that make it big, but others always make it. Literally. Always.

    It will happen because there are no movies that voters care. This year the big ones are late breakers because of production timing because every voter and critic is waiting big time for these big ones releasing now.  BTW, we know what is populist and thats not fucking Belfast or TPOTD.

    This year aint no ordinary year still. The most antecipated contenders were all given a late release and they are coming out now and coming in hot. And everyone is looking out for them anf for something different and more enjoyable. You dont want to compare latebreakers this year like Being The Ricardos, Dont Look Up, Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza and West Side Story to other years. Literally the most antecipated movies are releasing now. And they are coming with excellent reactions.

    In a year that is just so dry. TPOTD or Belfast are not even 1% close to be a Parasite. King Richard is mediocre. Belfast also. TPOTD is overrated. Will these movies handle the heavy competition?

    If you think audiences will bother to watch Belfast, TPOTD, King Richard and even if they do, will they even like them a bit??? My question is: will they even be able to finish the movies? Like them over these latebreakers?? Thats delusional

    All you just wrotte is a text against big oscar contenders with a mix of despair and a wish that these niche stuff takes over the Oscars resulting in more ratings crush. What happened last year? Per what you say, they watched those movies and liked them so much that they didnt even bother to watch the Oscars.

     

    No frontrunner now feels safe. They just feel small. Weak.

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    kbc
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    #1204615748

    Kaziz, you have a valid point on not many late breakers usually making in. But this year specifically many studios opted to skip certain films from festivals and release it on the latest date possible (The Lost Daughter on December 31st!) in order to keep momentum for Oscars since they’re only happening in the end of march.
    Festivals and early-ish releases are important for smaller films like Spencer or Passing because they need to generate hype in a film that is somewhat unknown. While frontloaded films like West Side Story, Don’t Look Up and perhaps Nightmare Alley don’t need that cause they have strong names attatched, a hype on their own that cements once it’s released. They will have screenings to the Academy regardless but members will be aware of their existence and will watch anyway.

    So yeah, it is a strong stat that not many late-breakers make in, but this is the year to change that and it would be a conscious decision from film producers and distributors.

    Agree – if More than Half of the BP nominees are nonfest this time, my jaw won’t be on the floor, stat or not.

    Ampas members will like (and vote for) what they like, and the various contenders’ fest/nonfest distinctions likely won’t play into those decisions in virtually all cases.

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    Michaël Fisher
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    #1204615769

    NIGHTMARE ALLEY looks incredible.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204615802

    Pedro, I have feelings too and I feel that you’re wrong. You’re forgetting that TPOTD is about to be released on Netflix, so it’s campaign is only beginning.

    The back end is stacked this year and it will be interesting to see how it pans out. It may be that either or both of Belfast & TPOTD are pushed out, or it may be that they end up fighting it out for BP in the end, it’s too early to tell.

     

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    kaziz
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    #1204615805

    In a year that is just so dry. TPOTD or Belfast are not even 1% close to be a Parasite. King Richard is mediocre. Belfast also. TPOTD is overrated. Will these movies handle the heavy competition?

    If you think audiences will bother to watch Belfast, TPOTD, King Richard and even if they do, will they even like them a bit??? My question is: will they even be able to finish the movies? Like them over these latebreakers?? Thats delusional

    Yes.

    Yes. Yep. We know you hate them, we get it, we heard you the first 5 million times. I hate Belfast too, but it is how it is, it’s gonna be a player, full stop.

    Thats delusional

    Stop confusing what you want to happen with what is likely to happen. That’s delusional.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    kaziz
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    #1204615859

    Kaziz, you have a valid point on not many late breakers usually making in. But this year specifically many studios opted to skip certain films from festivals and release it on the latest date possible (The Lost Daughter on December 31st!) in order to keep momentum for Oscars since they’re only happening in the end of march.
    Festivals and early-ish releases are important for smaller films like Spencer or Passing because they need to generate hype in a film that is somewhat unknown. While frontloaded films like West Side Story, Don’t Look Up and perhaps Nightmare Alley don’t need that cause they have strong names attatched, a hype on their own that cements once it’s released. They will have screenings to the Academy regardless but members will be aware of their existence and will watch anyway.

    So yeah, it is a strong stat that not many late-breakers make in, but this is the year to change that and it would be a conscious decision from film producers and distributors.

    Yeah this is true, and you’re absolutely right, and I think not only is it realistic but basically a certainty that at least 3 or 4 late breakers WILL be making it in. That’s not an unreasonable or bizarre thing, not at all.

    And yes ofc festivals are usually for smaller films, and somehow those smaller films are the ones that break in because of this upcoming critics groups phase. Late breakers do too, obviously. But there IS something to the fact that not ALL the festival films were small. Dune went to festivals, worked out overall. Didn’t work out so well for Last Night in SoHo & The Last Duel, I honestly think bad reviews from festival critics do have an impact.

    Also, del Toro wanted to take Nightmare Alley (which I think will probably get in) to festivals for a reason, even with the stacked cast. It’s not always about stacked casts & budgets. NA is the sort of film that would ordinarily play at a festival, King Richard actually is not, not even Tammy Faye—they both feel more like a summer/holiday films, and I’m guessing they used the festival strategy partly because of the pandemic year. It worked out for one, not for the other, because it’s still risky.

    Overall, Ricardos, WSS, HoG, and DLU definitely feel like traditional late-breaker films, the rest not so much. And these kinds of films have always been there, they just don’t make it as much as people often want them to because there’s something about the sustained campaign that just…works. No one can explain why it works exactly, but it does.

    It can tank a film too, but first the most acclaimed ones solidify (with strange not-totally-acclaimed cases like Belfast/Jojo Rabbit/Green Book getting a major prize at a major festival and going to BP). Then ALL the films come out in Nov/Dec, both the festival films + late breakers (as you noted, all get screened around the same time, most people see them around the same time anyway, but a good chunk will also have seen them at fests, esp with a more international AMPAS). Big-hit late breakers get in sometimes despite middling reviews (Vice), but partly because of the timing of critics groups, there’s a resuscitation of smaller films from festivals. Like: yeah, Feinberg has only 3 late breakers in (as opposed to the 6 in the GD top 10 right now!) because he has C’mon C’mon and A Hero. I don’t think A Hero is gonna happen, C’mon C’mon is still a question mark, who knows—but the logic he’s using there is good. Do you see what I mean? Like look at what happened at the Gothams last night. The Lost Daughter tied Moonlight in number of prizes! Will it be the one to get in? Maybe not, but I’m inclined to think it will because it will get a LOT more visibility in the next 2 months.

    Basically… we do have to pencil in at least 2 of those “small” films instead of filling the rest of the table with 6-7 late breakers, it’s just…nonsensical. Perhaps especially because there are so many, they’re gonna be competing too much with each other, and also—these films were always going to be SEEN. Let’s be honest, the extra few weeks voters get will probably go to screeners for films that are small, the big ones were gonna get watched first anyway.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    pedrohf2001
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    #1204615877

    Stop confusing what you want to happen with what is likely to happen. That’s delusional.

    Oh lord. Youre to stuck with stats. Just to be clear. I know TPOTD will be nominated. Just to be clear. This is not what were arguing about. We talking about winning. And none of those movies are winning BP this year. Sorry not sorry pal. And idk what will happen to your health whent that happens but boy are your precious stats going to be broken.

    Bias or not, I believe in what Im saying. 1 of the latebreakers are winning BP. And THIS year, lots of them will get nominated and its weird you dont understand this. Guess we will have to wait

     

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    lorelei lor
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    Dec 20th, 2017
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    #1204615928

    Oh lord. Youre to stuck with stats. Just to be clear. I know TPOTD will be nominated. Just to be clear. This is not what were arguing about. We talking about winning. And none of those movies are winning BP this year. Sorry not sorry pal. And idk what will happen to your health whent that happens but boy are your precious stats going to be broken. Bias or not, I believe in what Im saying. 1 of the latebreakers are winning BP. And THIS year, lots of them will get nominated and its weird you dont understand this. Guess we will have to wait

    Will you still be here if that doesn’t happen or you’ll just do the disappearing act like many other ‘came and went’ profiles we get every season?

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    pedrohf2001
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    #1204615948

    Will you still be here if that doesn’t happen or you’ll just do the disappearing act like many other ‘came and went’ profiles we get every season?

    I will be here. This is the 1st year im here. I was way more on reddit

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    Richie Rich
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    #1204615951

    Guys. What if WSS pulls a Chicago and wins BP without winning Director or Screenplay even though it will be nominated for both. And after these reactions it can definitely get nominated for both.

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    kaziz
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    #1204615964

    Oh lord. Youre to stuck with stats. Just to be clear. I know TPOTD will be nominated. Just to be clear. This is not what were arguing about. We talking about winning. And none of those movies are winning BP this year. Sorry not sorry pal. And idk what will happen to your health whent that happens but boy are your precious stats going to be broken.

    Bias or not, I believe in what Im saying. 1 of the latebreakers are winning BP. And THIS year, lots of them will get nominated and its weird you dont understand this. Guess we will have to wait

    lol my health will be fine because I’ve been on here for ages and am not as continually disappointed as you seem to be. You’re a very perplexing user, there’s no logic to you being on GD: you literally don’t seem to like anything. Were you just waiting to hate on everything for months until WSS came out? Honestly very confusing, films just aren’t really your thing.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    kaziz
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    #1204615985

    Guys. What if WSS pulls a Chicago and wins BP without winning Director or Screenplay even though it will be nominated for both. And after these reactions it can definitely get nominated for both.

    I woulda thought La La Land would’ve been that film (ofc it did win more tho)

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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