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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 18)

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    Heptapod
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    #1204624609

    And guys. What is happening with Swan Song? I honestly forgot about it until I just saw it mentioned in an article. Is it trying to be an Oscar contender or na?

    It seems like Apple is just going to dump it after middling reviews. Especially now that CODA seems to be performing better than most would have expected and they have that to focus on.

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    Heptapod
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    #1204624611

    The way people are so quick to react… The Power of the Dog will be fine. Negga’s chances have not changed. Reactions to Nightmare Alley are not as stellar as originally expected, but they’re far from bad (still well within the range of a lot of technical-driven lower-tier Picture contenders).

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    Richie Rich
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    #1204624666

    I watched Passing and I really liked it (I don’t easily love most films but I especially find it hard to hate a film). BUT Tessa Thompson has like no shot at getting nominated in my opinion not because she wasn’t top notch but because the role didn’t scream I need to be nominated. As for Negga, I see why people want her to be nominated and I certainly wouldn’t be opposed to that but there is a just lack of urgency to nominate her. I think it has a lot to do with her film not being a frontrunner and obviously not being very Oscar bait. And a lot of it is because her performance is very subtle, she doesn’t have a big monologue here and there. So at this moment, I’m not predicting her as well.

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    mf617
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    #1204624883

    Did I really see someone come in here and try to post half a review of a movie after pausing it eight minutes in?

    And then ask a question about another movie eleven minutes later?

    Some of y’all really kill me.

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    JV
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    #1204624964

    The embargo for Don’t Look Up is kinda weird. It doesn’t lift until 3 days before the theatrical release, especially when Netflix rarely plays the embargo game. Maybe Netflix is overly cautious with it because of Vice ?

    Being the Ricardos also has me worried. 1 week until the limited release and still no official reviews ? Lameboxd hated it.

    But again, these don’t need acclaim to be contenders.

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    SN
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    #1204625018

    The embargo for Don’t Look Up is kinda weird. It doesn’t lift until 3 days before the theatrical release, especially when Netflix rarely plays the embargo game. Maybe Netflix is overly cautious with it because of Vice ?

    Being the Ricardos also has me worried. 1 week until the limited release and still no official reviews ? Lameboxd hated it.

    But again, these don’t need acclaim to be contenders.

    I think that’s fine. If I’m not mistaken they did the same last year with some films.

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    SN
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    #1204625035

    I think The Power of the Dog is going to be the ensemble film that looks like an easy SAG nom but gets snubbed in the end, like The Favourite, Vice and Mank. Like The Favourite, it’s mostly centered on three characters.

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    wolfali
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    #1204625037

    Late embargo releases for Netflix can go either way. I think they’re at a point where it doesn’t really matter when an embargo for something releases if they’re still campaigning for it or know people will watch it. The Woman in the Window‘s embargo was lifted on the day of release because it was bad but The Queen’s Gambit‘s embargo was lifted on its day of release because Netflix were already campaigning it hard, didn’t need critical pre-hype and probably anticipated it would be seen.

    It is interesting that Amazon has such a late embargo for Being the Ricardos though. Not that the film needs critical raves to stay in contention but more because it’s a film that could do with that type of exposure.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    wolfali
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    #1204625045

    I think The Power of the Dog is going to be the ensemble film that looks like an easy SAG nom but gets snubbed in the end, like The Favourite, Vice and Mank. Like The Favourite, it’s mostly centered on three characters.

    Could be. But then there’s also Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri which was also mostly centred on three characters and went on to win SAG ensemble.

    It wouldn’t surprise me either way. The acting could be too cold for SAG to really take towards it fully but it’s also a Netflix film that is the BP frontrunner so who knows?

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204625081

    I watched Passing and I really liked it (I don’t easily love most films but I especially find it hard to hate a film). BUT Tessa Thompson has like no shot at getting nominated in my opinion not because she wasn’t top notch but because the role didn’t scream I need to be nominated. As for Negga, I see why people want her to be nominated and I certainly wouldn’t be opposed to that but there is a just lack of urgency to nominate her. I think it has a lot to do with her film not being a frontrunner and obviously not being very Oscar bait. And a lot of it is because her performance is very subtle, she doesn’t have a big monologue here and there. So at this moment, I’m not predicting her as well.

    This year so far has really exacerbated my contempt for awards bodies ignoring performances  for being too subtle or not “showy.” Several top performances are being passed by this year for this reason. It’s so dumb. Effective subtle performances >>>> the best showy performance.

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    Chitanda170
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    #1204625095

    This year so far has really exacerbated my contempt for awards bodies ignoring performances for being too subtle or not “showy.” Several top performances are being passed by this year for this reason. It’s so dumb. Effective subtle performances >>>> the best showy performance.

    You need to have an Oscar scene, that’s the reason I’m skeptical with Will Smith winning the Oscar, though i disagree that a subtle performance>>>showy performance, a great performance is a great performance, showy or subtle. For example Begnini vs Norton, Norton gives a more showy performance and i think he was miles better than Begnini.

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    Dorsey
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    #1204625101

    Just saw C’mon C’mon and it’s immediately my favorite movie of the year. No hyperbole, I was crying the whole time. Had to take my mask off because there was snot in it. Not a cute sight.

    Looks like, yet AGAIN, I am in for another year of being pissed at A24 for blowing the campaign.

    FYC:

    Best Picture: C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion
    Actor: Joaquin Phoenix (C'mon C'mon), Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick... Boom!)
    Supporting Actress: Gaby Hoffman (C'mon C'mon), Ann Dowd (Mass), Ruth Negga (Passing)
    Supporting Actor: Jason Isaacs (Mass), Robin de Jesús (Tick, Tick... Boom!)

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204625122

    You need to have an Oscar scene, that’s the reason I’m skeptical with Will Smith winning the Oscar, though i disagree that a subtle performance>>>showy performance, a great performance is a great performance, showy or subtle. For example Begnini vs Norton, Norton gives a more showy performance and i think he was miles better than Begnini.

    You do need an Oscar scene, that reality is just what grinds me.

    What I’m trying to say with showy v. subtle is just that the most mediocre showy performances (even in middling films) consistently get recognition over the best subtle performances. I’m usually more impressed with the subtle, though yes, a great performance is a great performance. I just think it sucks that a great performance being too “subtle” is a very valid analysis of award chances. It’s just silly. But is what it is, and has always been this way. It’s just that this year many of my favorites are once again being swept over or are clinging to the edge of recognition for this reason, so I’m annoyed. But let me stop raging against the machine.

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    Richie Rich
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    #1204625124

    Did I really see someone come in here and try to post half a review of a movie after pausing it eight minutes in? And then ask a question about another movie eleven minutes later? Some of y’all really kill me.

    Lmao. After posting the half review, I saw the article on my feed and asked the question before I continued the movie. It’s not an impossible phenomenon. I’m done with the movie now BTW.

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    Richie Rich
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    #1204625135

    You do need an Oscar scene, that reality is just what grinds me. What I’m trying to say with showy v. subtle is just that the most mediocre showy performances (even in middling films) consistently get recognition over the best subtle performances. I’m usually more impressed with the subtle, though yes, a great performance is a great performance. I just think it sucks that a great performance being too “subtle” is a very valid analysis of award chances. It’s just silly. But is what it is, and has always been this way. It’s just that this year many of my favorites are once again being swept over or are clinging to the edge of recognition for this reason, so I’m annoyed. But let me stop raging against the machine.

    Sandra Bullock didn’t really have an Oscars scene in The Blind Side. If she can win, Smith can win. But Benny C is definitely winning the BAFTA. I can smell a Smith BAFTA snub coming.

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