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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 18)

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    Manav
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    Dec 21st, 2019
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    #1204625364

    Sandra Bullock didn’t really have an Oscars scene in The Blind Side. If she can win, Smith can win. But Benny C is definitely winning the BAFTA. I can smell a Smith BAFTA snub coming.

    Smith is likely not getting snubbed for the BAFTA with the introduction of the top 2 vote. Although if he does get snubbed,it’s a huge statement and with King Richard being a top 5 Picture contender at present, I doubt he misses the BAFTA popular vote.

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    wolfali
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    #1204625379

    and with King Richard being a top 5 Picture contender at present,

    At the Oscars it is. That might not be the case with BAFTA.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Manav
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    Dec 21st, 2019
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    #1204625399

    At the Oscars it is. That might not be the case with BAFTA.

    True,that’s certainly a possibility. We don’t know how much the BAFTA voting body will take to King Richard.

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    Rynd_Rawikara
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    Aug 28th, 2021
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    #1204625402

    A bit late to say this, but as time goes on, I kinda like the idea of review embargo. It gives critics time to digest the plot, the theme, the message/commentary if there was one. And it forces them to actually think what they are about to write.

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    kbc
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    #1204625463

    NY Mag’s “Vulture” Updates His “Oscar Futures”

    Vulture got a bit sloppy this week, it seems, as he is predicting six names in Director, Actor and Supporting Actress. I take my best shot at cleaning up the messes in the excerpts (they’re marked with 💀💀💀).

    Other deets: He finally let go of Larrain in director, and was compelled to eject Cruz, Rex and Dench, but he still hangs on to Dornan, Leto and, most puzzlingly, Jenkins. Maybe next week…

    Picture
    Up: West Side Story
    Pundits are already proclaiming WSS our new Best Picture front-runner—could it be? Yes, it could. In a year where voters may be hungering for big, old-fashioned entertainment, it provides something for everyone. If it performs as well as everyone hopes at the holiday box office, watch out.
    Up: Licorice Pizza
    PTA has never won an Oscar, and suddenly, LP looks like it might have the gas to compete in that wide-open Original Screenplay race.
    Predix:
    BTR/Belfast/DLU/
    Dune/KR/LP/
    LostDaughter/NA/
    TPOTD/WSS
    Unchanged

    Director
    Up: Jane Campion
    Even if BP winds up going to a crowd-pleaser like Belfast or WSS, Campion’s slow, cerebral work on TPOTD could see her take BD in a split.
    Up: Maggie Gyllenhaal
    If Gyllenhaal snags enough first-time film prizes — which she did again from the NYFCC — will she have the necessary momentum to crack the big category?
    💀💀💀 Predix: PTAnderson/Branagh/
    Campion/Gyllenhaal/
    Spielberg/Villeneuve
    kbc says:“I’m presuming Gyllenhaal is the ‘No. 6’ as Vulture hasn’t yet indicated any weakness in the other picks, and his latest analysis of her chances is still conditional.”
    In: Steven Spielberg
    Out: Pablo Larrain

    Actor
    Even: Bradley Cooper
    Pundits are torn on whether NA is an all-around contender or merely a crafts play. Cooper undergoes a series of drastic transformations but his character remains such a bastard that voters might prefer to steer clear.
    Up: Benedict Cumberbatch
    His commanding turn playing against type could make him an appealing alternative in this race, though the optics of another Black front-runner being usurped by another Brit are not great.
    💀💀💀 Predix:
    Cooper/Cumberbatch/
    DiCaprio/Garfield/
    Smith/Washington
    “Cooper must be ‘Mr. Six’ as Vulture rates his chances as only ‘even.’”
    In: Leonardo DiCaprio
    Out: Simon Rex

    Actress
    Up: Rachel Zegler
    As Sondheim might say, it’s alarming how charming she is. Longtime readers of this column know how much Oscar loves an ingenue, and I think Zegler just joined Stewart and Kidman as this race’s three locks.
    Up: Lady Gaga
    By naming her Best Actress, the NYFCC planted a flag and said yes, this is an awards performance. And thank God. Oscars season is more fun when Gaga’s in it.
    Predix:
    Colman/Gaga/Kidman/
    Stewart/Zegler
    In: Rachel Zegler
    Out: Penelope Cruz

    Supporting Actor
    Up: Ciarán Hinds
    Never before nominated, the Irish veteran may be in line for the same type of career-achievement attention that has recently gone to Jonathan Pryce and Richard E. Grant.
    Up: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    As a creepy twink with a heart of gold, he proves an intriguing foil to Cumberbatch’s butch cowman, and some of the decisions his character makes will keep viewers talking long after the credits have run. After the NYFCC win, more critical love could be in store.
    Predix:
    Dornan/Hinds/Jenkins/
    Leto/Smit-McPhee
    Unchanged

    Supporting Actress
    Up: Rita Moreno
    In a character invented for this production, she is the mournful soul of the film, and Spielberg even reshuffles the musical numbers to give her a showcase ballad. Ariana DeBose is earning buzz for her own spirited performance, but on a pure Oscar-narrative level, it’ll be hard for anyone to compete with Moreno.
    Even: Cate Blanchett
    While she has a slinky chemistry with Cooper, she’s also in less of the movie than you’d expect, and the “glamorous woman with a secret” character is not a million miles away from parts she’s played before. She may struggle to break through in a crowded field.
    💀💀💀 Predix: Balfe/Blanchett/Dunst/
    Ellis/Moreno/Negga
    “With that ‘even’ rating, Blanchett must be ‘Ms. Six.’”
    In: Rita Moreno
    Out: Judi Dench

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    mitchellfleming21
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    #1204625585

    Early December Predictions:
    Honestly, I’m convinced any of these first six films has a good shot at winning, but I feel like Don’t Look Up is gonna come out and be a global phenomenon on Netflix that will just propel it to the top of the conversation in the next few months.

    Best Picture:
    1: Don’t Look Up (Netflix) (Predicting for 8 nominations and 3 wins, incl. Picture, Original Screenplay and Editing)
    2: The Power of the Dog (Netflix) (Predicting for 9 nominations and 3 wins, incl. Director and Cinematography)
    3: Belfast (Focus Features) (Predicting for 7 nominations and 1 win, Supporting Actor (Ciarán Hinds)
    4: West Side Story (20th Century Studios) (Predicting for 10 nominations and 3 wins, incl. Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actress (Ariana DeBose) and Sound)
    5: Dune (Warner Bros) (Predicting for 10 nominations, and 2 wins incl. Original Score and Visual Effects
    6: Licorice Pizza (MGM) (Predicting for 7 nominations and 1 win, Production Design)
    7: King Richard (Warner Bros) (Predicting for 4 nominations and 2 wins, incl. Actor (Will Smith) and Original Song
    8: Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) (Predicting for 7 nominations and 1 win, Costume Design)
    9: Being the Ricardos (Amazon) (Predicting for 4 nominations and 0 wins)
    10: Spencer (NEON) (Predicting for 6 nominations and 1 win, Actress (Kristen Stewart)

    Best Director:
    1: Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
    2: Denis Villeneuve – Dune
    3: Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
    4: Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
    5: Julia Ducournau – Titane

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    Lil Tony
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    Sep 17th, 2018
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    #1204625596

    I just finished Belfast. This is my favourite movie of the year. It’s far better than the mid-boring and confusing Power of the Dog and the very simple looking King Richard. This should win best picture. The final scene was emotional for me as it shows the kind of loneliness old people go through. I love Jude Hill already and Dame Judy Dench still got it. I love this film

    Laga Gaga for Best Actress.

    House of Gucci for best picture.

    Belfast for everything - Best Picture win

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    ArtIsntEasy
    Joined:
    Dec 17th, 2011
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    #1204625610

    Best Director:
    1: Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
    2: Denis Villeneuve – Dune
    3: Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
    4: Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
    5: Julia Ducournau – Titane

    I have this same lineup, though I swapped Anderson and Spielberg.

    I do wonder if other than TITANE that DRIVE MY CAR or THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD can make it into these races.

    “The art of making art is putting it together...”

    FYC in all eligible categories:

    C'mon C'mon
    Drive My Car
    The Worst Person in the World
    Titane
    Passing

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    wolfali
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    #1204625640

    I’m actually surprised Adam McKay is still quite low in a lot of predictions and I anticipate it’s something that will change once Don’t Look Up releases. He already got in for both The Big Short and Vice and Don’t Look Up at least seems primed to be better received than the latter so I can’t imagine there being much stopping him from at least being a contender for the nomination.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Iamelle
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    Dec 18th, 2018
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    #1204625647

    FINALLY watched Belfast! Here’s the thing, it’s a good movie, but I don’t think it’s the best movie and definitely don’t think it should win BP. I didn’t feel all those emotions some people felt. Sure, there were some very nice moments, but in general it was just ok for me. Obviously Jude is the scene stealer here, the boy is really great. Then comes Cait, with a strong performance. I loved Ciaran, I really did. He didn’t have a lot of scenes, but the ones he was in, I liked it a lot. Maybe I wanted more from those hospital scenes, but it was still good. Dornan was pretty good too, as I imagined, but he didn’t have a wow scene (there is the bus scene, but I felt that was all Balfe), but he did have some nice ones, just don’t think they’re Oscar worthy. And then we have Judi, who is great, but doesn’t do much, and still her presence is very strong. I loved her scenes with Buddy, all of them. And that final one is the only scene that really made me tear up. Thought the score was ok. The cinematography is beautiful, but not my favorite of the year. 😬 All in all I would give this 3/5.

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    Richie Rich
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    Aug 6th, 2021
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    #1204625652

    I’m actually surprised Adam McKay is still quite low in a lot of predictions and I anticipate it’s something that will change once Don’t Look Up releases. He already got in for both The Big Short and Vice and Don’t Look Up at least seems primed to be better received than the latter so I can’t imagine there being much stopping him from at least being a contender for the nomination.

    I know right? People just don’t want to give up on their bias against him. And the way Titane is so not happening in director is not funny. People are acting like there is always a foreign language director nomination just because it became a thing in the past few years.

    My personal director predictions atm

    1. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    2. Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    3. Denis Villenueve – Dune

    4. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

    5. Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up

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    Richie Rich
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    #1204625654

    FINALLY watched Belfast! Here’s the thing, it’s a good movie, but I don’t think it’s the best movie and definitely don’t think it should win BP. I didn’t feel all those emotions some people felt. Sure, there were some very nice moments, but in general it was just ok for me. Obviously Jude is the scene stealer here, the boy is really great. Then comes Cait, with a strong performance. I loved Ciaran, I really did. He didn’t have a lot of scenes, but the ones he was in, I liked it a lot. Maybe I wanted more from those hospital scenes, but it was still good. Dornan was pretty good too, as I imagined, but he didn’t have a wow scene (there is the bus scene, but I felt that was all Balfe), but he did have some nice ones, just don’t think they’re Oscar worthy. And then we have Judi, who is great, but doesn’t do much, and still her presence is very strong. I loved her scenes with Buddy, all of them. And that final one is the only scene that really made me tear up. Thought the score was ok. The cinematography is beautiful, but not my favorite of the year. 😬 All in all I would give this 3/5.

    Thank you for having an open mind and not setting out to hate it. Your review sounds very fair and I’m happy people like you exist on this forum.

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    NevadaR
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    Jan 13th, 2018
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    #1204625667

    My personal director predictions atm 1. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog 2. Steven Spielberg – West Side Story 3. Denis Villenueve – Dune 4. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast 5. Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up

    PTA isn’t missing for such an acclaimed movie though. This branch is definitely going for him over Branagh.

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    Stefania
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    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204625682

    I watched “Drive My Car” yesterday (since it won NYFCC) and… that movie is not for me. If you think TPOTD is slow then I don’t recommend you try this soporific 3-hour Japanese movie where all that happens is that people talk to each other quietly about existential problems, usually while driving a car. I know that many people in this forum really liked it and I’ll read some reviews to understand how dumb I am, but I was really battling to keep my eyes open. At least “Titane” (liked it didn’t love it) grabbed my attention!

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    kbc
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    #1204625739

    Anne Thompson revised her GD predictions again

    GDT is no longer the only pick for Nightmare Alley, which enters BP at No. 8.
    She has also added NA in the “fifth slot” for cinematography and production design.

    Chastain gets the boot as Gaga enters the fold, and Cruz stays put though Parallel Mothers again falls out of the BP predix. Meanwhile, Thompson oddly continues to hold onto Dowd, though Negga, Moreno, Balfe, Buckley, Johnson and even Blanchett are right there. 🤷‍♂️ The betting is now open! So which will happen first: Thompson joining Vulture in dropping Dowd, or Vulture joining Thompson in dropping Jenkins? 🤣

    Thompson’s Current Predix:

    Picture
    TPOTD/KR/Dune/WSS/
    LP/Bfast/TTOMb/NA/
    DLU/Spencer
    In: Nightmare Alley
    (Back) Out: Parallel Mothers
    Note: Spencer drops from No. 5 to No. 10. Licorice Pizza takes over No. 5, Belfast rises to No. 6 and The Tragedy of Macbeth climbs to No. 7.

    Director
    Campion/Villeneuve/
    Spielberg/PTAnderson/
    Del Toro
    Unchanged

    Actress
    Stewart/Kidman/
    Colman/Cruz/Gaga
    In: Lady Gaga
    Out: Jessica Chastain

    Actor
    Smith/Cumberbatch/
    Washington/DiCaprio/
    Garfield
    Unchanged

    Supporting Actress
    DeBose/Ellis/Dunst/
    Dowd/Matlin
    Unchanged

    Supporting Actor
    Smit-McPhee/Hinds/Leto/
    Kotsur/Bernthal
    Unchanged

    Original Screenplay
    LP/KR/DLU/Bfast/A Hero
    Unchanged

    Adapted Screenplay
    WSS/TPOTD/CODA/Lost Daughter/TTOMb
    Unchanged

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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